What will happen when Clock Speeds stop increasing?

http://glomek.blogspot.com/2008/09/when-clock-speeds-stop-increasing.html

by jonnytran • 18 years ago

21 25 18 years ago

glomek.blogspot.com

Parallelization + horizontal scaling is my guess. If you can't scale up, scale out.

drinian• 18 years ago

There will always be new uses for more power, ones that we can't see today. It's silly to say you'd be happy to see that go away.

And, yes, I think a lot of the gains in future computing power will be in parallelization, but that wasn't the point of this article.

iigs• 18 years ago

I agree with the sentiment (wouldn't it be nice to not treat computers, particularly full of nasty chemicals, as items meant to be thrown away every other year).

Unfortunately you will find that this isn't the way it works. Manufacturers will keep rebundling the same general parts in slightly different arrangements, with fresh design, and sell it to the disposable-product loving public. Even beyond the core processor, a PC is made up of a ton of little accessories that require drivers, and these are going to keep shifting around for the next couple decades. Linux is arguably better than Windows at supporting old outdated hardware, but good luck finding current OS support for anything but the most popular 1993 (now() - interval 15 year) products in the latest kernels.

In my opinion the precedent was set by the auto industry. Sure there are a few people who collect any given type of car and daily drive it 40 years later, but for every one of those there are hundreds of people who keep their old car only as a curiosity (i.e. show car), and for every one of those there are probably hundreds of cars that are trashed and sitting in junkyards or have been recycled into new ones.

nihilocrat• 18 years ago

A more positive way of expressing the sentiment might be "manufacturers will find a way of improving performance, though the gains might be harder to capitalize on than clock speeds or core count". Either way, given that the industry can't survive selling old products, they will find a way of selling us more stuff. We can only hope that we actually get some benefit out of the new products.

On the plus side, notice that today, with a computer that is 5 or so years old, you can get on the internet, watch flash video, play music, etc. etc. Compare that to using a 5 year old PC in 2000, or even worse, a 5 year old PC in 1995.

DabAsteroid• 18 years ago

"manufacturers will find a way of improving performance, though the gains might be harder to capitalize on than clock speeds or core count".

Don't count cores out. Intel isn't.

http://www.ciol.com/Intel/CP-Intel-CIO-Update/Future-Intel-d...

Larrabee is expected to kick start an industry-wide effort to create and optimize software for the dozens, hundreds and thousands of cores expected to power future computers.

speek• 18 years ago

Asynchronous processors will be here soon!

jfoutz2• 18 years ago

nope. coders have to figure out threads first. once there's a nice model you can teach a good EE student, we get to use fewer transistors on clocks.

scott_s2• 18 years ago

We haven't had a significant clock speed increase in a while; it's pretty much already happened.

technoguyrob3• 18 years ago

Will I ever be able to buy a 10Ghz CPU?

Someone please comfort me.

jfoutz2• 18 years ago

No, i don't think so. there are 10ghz transistors, but the're gallium arsenide rather than silicon. I'm going to pretend that i know (i don't), if you try to go much faster than 5ghz with silicon you have to use smaller electron bundles -- lower votage -- because the chips will melt if the voltage is upped to much. because the signal is less clear, undetected/uncorrected errors start happening all the time. remember, at 10ghz 1 in a billion mistakes is terrifying.

hugs

hugh2• 18 years ago

Yes, I had to check the date on this article. Hasn't this guy noticed that we've been stuck at 3 GHz for the last five years?

zandorg3• 18 years ago

I wrote software that finds textual graphics in a bitmap. I parallelised it by running, say, 4 (or any number of) threads, each handling 1/4 of the bitmap. It works really well, and there's no overlap.

dangoldin• 18 years ago

There must be some overlap to share what they find with another? Let's say 2 of the threads each have half a letter. Do you just have another thread that does the matching?

zandorg3• 18 years ago

Each thread has its area to search. At the end, when the last thread has finished, the results are merged into a single bitmap.

The best way to see it is as 4 strips of tracing paper which have the exact same text on, and the strips are searched and the text traced in, then all 4 (clear) strips go in a pile to make the final image.

[Edit] To clarify, if you search at position 200,268, if you hit a row of text in the centre, it scans. If you search the same bitmap at 200,350, what you find might not be clear.

So each thread searches some of the same areas, but the end result is that all text is found, and heuristics reject certain rows as valid text.

queensnake• 18 years ago

That's called an 'embarrassingly parallel' problem, it's not the general case. I guess, just like 'big O', people have to take a class to appreciate the space of what it's possible to parallelize and how much it buys you.

zandorg3• 18 years ago

At University we used to refer to big O as Roy Orbison. Just an example of our kind of smalltown humour.

ars• 18 years ago

No more singularity is the most obvious effect.

I don't see people talking about this, but the exponential curve broke.

Sure you can add cores, but you could do that 5 years ago (or earlier) too - and you don't see AI made even by well funded organizations.

It's over - don't wait for it.

hugh2• 18 years ago

Relax. Even if we had the hardware today we'd still have no idea how to write passable AI software. By the time somebody figures that out, maybe the hardware will have caught up.

Herring• 18 years ago

We do know how to write AI, problem is it stops being AI just as soon as we've written it.

technoguyrob3• 18 years ago

Maybe that's why the brain decided to go with parallel processing...

MikeCapone• 18 years ago

The exponential curve is for number of transistors on a chip, and for processing power per $1000. That's holding. Mhz has never been exponential afaik.

akeefer• 18 years ago

The author definitely makes a mistake in equating slow programs with poorly-written programs. Yes, it's true that people who write horrible code often also write horribly non-performant code, and that rushing a product to market without performance testing is far too common in our industry. But in my experience (and I've done a lot of performance tuning), making something perform generally requires selectively damaging the code by making it less understandable and by breaking rules about encapsulation and separation between layers. There's a reason why that whole "premature optimization is the root of all evil" saying is so popular. Performance tuning is also incredibly time-consuming and labor intensive. It might make you feel more hardcore to do it, and it certainly be a useful intellectual exercise, but it's still time that could well be spent on other types of product improvement.

The increase in clock speeds has been a primary driver behind the ability of people to use higher-level languages, as well as the ability for people to write larger and more complicated applications. So assuming that a stop to the increase in clockspeeds will lead to better software is flat-out wrong; if anything it'll help to essentially halt certain kinds of progress in language and framework development by preventing people from using higher-level abstractions that don't perform as well.

What will happen when Clock Speeds stop increasing?

Related Stories