Putin holds a major soft power weapon, help weaken it with gas and oil rationing

https://www.boycott-russian-gas.com/

by jaltekruse • 4 years ago

41 54 4 years ago

boycott-russian-gas.com

baremetal3• 4 years ago

i wouldnt be surprised if russia cuts off oil and gas to europe due to the sanctions imposed.

im not sure consumer rationing is gonna solve this problem. but i could be wrong.

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

I don't expect this to be a complete solution, but I am also very fearful that things will get shut off.

People are talking about this threat, but mostly to express despair. I'm trying to rally support and action ahead of the chaos that will ensue when things get shut off if there isn't a plan.

Starting grassroots I'm hoping will increase the chances people are willing to accept rationing. Governments won't be able to convince their people to hold firm against Russia and tolerate mass shortages suddenly given what I'm perceiving as a deficit of real support and widespread action right now.

baremetal3• 4 years ago

i dont know that people will have a choice when it comes to tolerating mass shortages.

people are so used to comfort. i wouldnt want to see the situation in which that comfort is cut off. so i applaud your intentions.

maybe europe should build some more solar and wind farms.

bitwize• 4 years ago

This is the geopolitical version of "fasting cures everything".

baremetal3• 4 years ago

i would have to agree with you.

its also the metaphorical "chickens coming home to roost"

unfocussed_mike3• 4 years ago

i wouldnt be surprised if russia cuts off oil and gas to Europe due to the sanctions imposed.

That would be economic suicide, but if that decision will be taken it already has been taken, surely?

Putin would know he'd face unprecedented sanctions but you can't just switch off the pipes. There are significant production decisions to be made quite far in advance, I think?

Also I don't think you can just really decide to keep the fuel you've already pumped; the question of where to put it is a challenging one.

He does have this choice but not in quite as simple, binary terms as it might seem, at least as far as I understand it. It'd be interesting to hear from someone with industrial domain knowledge though.

jeltz• 4 years ago

Can any nuclear plants be reopened in a reasonable amount of time?

_3u107• 4 years ago

Of course they could. But Germany would rather rely on Russia than have nuke energy.

Russian oil and gas is greener and has a lower carbon foot print according to them.

lawn• 4 years ago

I'm glad you added "according to them", because nuclear has a much lower carbon footprint than gas.

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

Yo! I encourage you to read down to the "what NOT to do" section.

This type of bickering is exactly what I'm trying to convince people to avoid.

I think we should take this moment to acknowledge what lots of people agree on, energy independence is good for security.

I'm trying to make the website neutral, but its hard in the current political climate. I think liberals need to accept that energy independence is good even if it doesn't come 100% renewable. And also trying to rally conservatives to accept that renewables are a longer term play, but are kind of the only option for nations that have no domestic oil reserves.

But that is kind of all irrelevant right now, Russia could cut off gas from Europe today! I'm trying to prevent us from being caught with our pants down and having to cave an otherwise pretty united international response.

frenchman993• 4 years ago

Being a Frenchman, I think government could push citizens to act, increasing price of Russian gas through massive taxes or something like that. We only import like 20% gas from Russia, from what I understand. Impact would be small for us and would prepare us for potentially more severe restrictions in the futures, helping us become more resilient. Am I missing something?

_3u107• 4 years ago

The best thing to do is lower taxes on gas to account for the inevitable rise in prices.

Once swift bans are in place the priority should be to use Russian oil and gas until the taps are turned off for non-payment.

gbear605• 4 years ago

The current SWIFT bans are only aimed at some Russian banks and seem to intentionally let oil and gas continue to flow.

unfocussed_mike3• 4 years ago

increasing price of Russian gas through massive taxes or something like that

Unless you're using a bottled product -- you may be referring to a bottled product -- you can't choose which gas you as a consumer get, can you?

Either way, gas and energy are fairly fungible (more fungible than crypto, hah). It's not really possible to target one supply with massive tax like this without having a knock-on effect on the rest of the energy market.

To what extent is the rest of the system resilient to a permanent 20% reduction in supply? That Russian gas might be disproportionately used in generating backup electricity.

kkfx4• 4 years ago

So you actually ask to squeeze more money out of your own people? More specifically poor people, since AFAIK they are for biggest domestic gas consumers in France. UAU....

What you propose IMVHO will happen, not by sanction but by scarcity excuses, and not to damage Russia (actually EU push for a partial SWIFT ban, to II level Russian actors, leaving the biggest aside, while buy from Russia surge yesterday and still today) but to keep financing the Green New Deal and cutting the push toward energy giant windfall taxes.

frenchman993• 4 years ago

So you actually ask to squeeze more money out of your own people?

No, we can use less gas and pay the same. People waste plenty of energy in lots of ways.

_3u107• 4 years ago

It might be an idea to just supply Europe with more oil from Canada / the us.

bottled_poe• 4 years ago

This seems like it would have the same effect as increasing prices/tariffs, but in a much more convoluted way.

unfocussed_mike3• 4 years ago

I think some form of natural gas protectionism is absolutely coming.

Speaking as a Brit I would definitely not rule out our government trying it.

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

Absolutely, but this is more possible if we can start a giant rationing movement. Biden already had to talk about how he was going to keep prices low at the pump while we impose sanctions. This is what we can do as individuals to help with that effort.

Unfortunately there isn't a ton of capacity to transport natural gas across the Atlantic, it is possible and we are doing it, but we don't have enough infrastructure and specialized ships for this to replace more than a small fraction of what comes in from Russia through existing pipelines.

Nordstream 2 stalling is not a bad step, but that is future harm to Russia, we need to be hurting Russia today as well as preparing for a potential shutoff of all exports.

_3u107• 4 years ago

Keystone XL could be approved that would help the US with more supply freeing transport by other methods for Europe.

I’d be willing to ration if there was movement on energy security. If our leaders don’t want to increase supply I’m not really interested.

sirmike_• 4 years ago

No thank you.

ZeroGravitas7• 4 years ago

So this is trolling from pro-Russia, and/or anti-renewable activists right?

From their 'what not to do' section:

Argue about what led up to this energy situation. Yes, Germany shut down nuclear plants; yes, green energy targets pushed the USA and others to reduce domestic oil and coal production.

If you actually want to do something to help, how about following the "Electrify everything in your house guide":

https://www.rewiringamerica.org/

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

I can assure you I am not pro-Russia.

I'm happy to take suggestions on edits for the website.

I do support green energy targets, but I believe this situation proves the world did some math wrong. Russia is much more aggressive than we were willing to accept even a few weeks ago. The west has been increasing its purchasing of Russian gas and oil despite the fact they had annexed Crimea and supported the separatists.

I think we need to talk about what needs to happen in the short term right now. Most of the discussion I am seeing everywhere is people on the right taking shots at Biden and Germany for shutting down domestic production and caring about green energy targets.

Part of what I'm trying to get everyone to realize is that the left and right are on the same side. Conservatives that are taking a second to stop mocking the green energy movement are also shouting "this is why energy independence is national security".

I'm trying to bridge 2 sides of the debate, I think us lefties need to accept that energy independence in any means possible might be more strategically important in the short run.

ZeroGravitas7• 4 years ago

Assuming you are genuine, there's plenty of sensible advice out there already on how to cut your fossil fuel usage. Linking that to the current story of Russia's oligarchs using their fossil profits to invade and kill democratic neighbours gives people an impetus to do things that will actually make their own life better, but that they may not have heard about, because right-wing propaganda has drowned it out.

As I shared recently, most countries will have the equivalent of

https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/energy-at-home/

Which will tell you ways to save money, and keep your house warmer while also reducing fossil fuel usage. Find and disseminate that, the wider knowledge of fossil fuels being an expensive con will do more to destabilize Putin than anything I've read on your page currently.

If you want people to tie it closer to Ukraine, point out that these sites will often tell you how much money you will save by making these choices, get people to donate that money to Ukraine or an organisation that is helping us to move off fossil fuels.

ejb9992• 4 years ago

How does electrifying your house solve the problem? That electricity still needs to come from someplace, and more often that not it comes from a combination of coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear.

Maybe someday when we can generate 100% of what we need from renewable sources - but we aren't even close to being there yet, and in the meantime, people still need energy.

ZeroGravitas7• 4 years ago

Because electrical things are more efficient, cleaner and cheaper and just generally better than any alternative that burns fossil fuels directly, so less fossil fuels get burned and less fossil fuels get bought and oil-based economies can't get away with flying 747s into tall buildings or invading their neighbours any more. I don't think this is particularly complicated, but I did just link to a whole book on the topic if you're not getting the general gist.

sofixa• 4 years ago

It solves tomorrow's problem. Currently most electrical grids are moving to less carbon intensive electricity generation methods ( even if many still use coal, oil and gas power plants), and if you electrify now, your carbon emissions will drop with the grid's, and the job of "greenify"-ing everything would be done.

Furthermore, if you live in a country where electricity produces very low amounts of carbon ( like France or the Nordics), it already makes sense.

Lochleg• 4 years ago

It would have to be very subtle trolling since mentioning a certain pipe in Canada would definitely have rustled some jimmies.

sudden_dystopia• 4 years ago

Wouldn’t a pro Russian troll be telling you TO argue about those things to divide us??? And why in gods name would an anti renewable activist want to advocate for an energy boycott??

If anything, your comment sounds like a Russian troll by derailing and deflecting the conversation off topic

ZeroGravitas7• 4 years ago

Because it's been a long standing tactic of fossil fuel booster to make a big deal about how we need to give up stuff in order to fight climate change?

Because they know people won't like that message. Whereas, buy an EV or an induction hub, or underfloor heating with a heat pump, insulate your home and your life will get better at the same time as fighting climate change and fossil-fueled dictactorships?

kkfx4• 4 years ago

Personally I've built my new home, insulation/airtightness/VMC/* and domestic p.v., being full electric and with a small lithium backup enough for passing an evening+night at minimum services (8kWh) + an emergency generator if needed... I doubt I can be considered a "anti-renewable activists", at least, I do that not because of an ideological cause but because I think that's good for me in practical terms (big initial investment, but ars covered for a not so marginal period of time and in case of troubles I expect in service disruption in the future), also I'm not one of the many that think to be environmental friendly because they live in cities and shop by feet few meters away, completely ignoring and rejecting if told, that such lifestyle demand a far big pollution they do not see, just outside their walled garden and sight, not much differently than the classic Orwell phrase: "Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf" but anyway... Also coming from an Italian WWII Partisan family (nephew of) I doubt I can be pro- any dictatorship, but exactly because of what I learn from my family I know how important is distinguishing "the real enemy", it's soldiers, some of them "without their knowledge", and it's own people...

The "so called green tech" can be theoretically cheap, but it's not really cheap on the market for various reasons, and while can work very well in certain sites can't do the same everywhere. For instance being in French south p.v. is effective, if it became legal here a hyper-small Pelton in the creek can push me toward real self-sufficiency for the MTBF of such system at least, but elsewhere?

In EU most people live in dense cities, no chance for effective and substantial energy improvement of buildings, their are tight and not "well oriented", there is not much room for renewable in general there. People living north if they do not have options for combined hydro+wind do not have much choices either, and they need far more energy to heat for a much bigger time period.

That's JUST to talk about private housing. Now if we also put on the table industry needs and EVs... We can't even with all nuclear, coal, oil, ... combined produce enough electricity for all. Not only: so far lithium tech is good enough for certain appliance BUT is not really recyclable (yes, experiments, startup do exists but they are experiments and startup not well established tech and developed industry at scale) and batteries does not last longer. If only they can last 20 years buying lithium storage, not just as a very expensive home-wide UPS, can be interesting for full autonomy, but that's not the case so far, and even if prices have fallen much in "historical terms" it's still too expensive for its lifespan. Even to stabilize the net it's then not an option, and that's a big problem if we really push renewable. Most people ignore the fact that to keep AC systems alive supply and demand MUST match, at a certain scale demand tend to be constant enough to offer network stability, below and above that it's extremely hard to keep the power on-line.

Long story short: I like much the idea, but I still have to see a fully working implementation for the masses or anything that can scale for industrial needs everywhere. Even at residential, individual home level, the sole practically usable at a certain scale today the balance is not really green: hot water is made with a heat-pump + classic resistance (and that's the best for solar since it's load remain almost flat, no phasing effects) it's not really complex but have a 10 years life expectancy and it's not much recyclable. Solar panels theoretically last longer, BUT practically if evolution continue it's not much interesting keep them more than 10 years, batteries last 5-8 years for EV, perhaps 8-10 for p.v. usage if not much stressed. Again really hard to recycle, mining what's needed for them is not cleaner than digging for oil and so on. Essentially we do not have anything really circular at actual population scale. We can be "long enough and recyclable enough" only for a far smaller population that being smaller can use certain resources on scale at a renewable level. If you do not propose a big genocide... There is no real "solutions", only different paths toward the unknown.

ct0• 4 years ago

There are small steps that you can take. Use hot water sparingly, turning down the thermostat and driving slower can all help. I don't think we need to pass laws to do this though as any changes to a way of life is an attack on freedom.

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

Yup, my exact point is that tons of people will riot if the government tells them "we need to cut back to fight the Russians".

I'm trying to get people to accept ahead of a sudden need to change our behavior or fold to Russian pressures, we can start getting ready for the worst that may come.

noworld• 4 years ago

Sounds like some mandatory WFH if your job position can handle it would help out here.

qnsi• 4 years ago

Maybe I would follow some of the advice he's proposing, if it were given by someone from EU, also paying those costs.

As I see it, its some American roleplaying real help

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

This impacts me too, the US does export liquid natural gas that could help some. I'm also trying to encourage everyone to reduce consumption, even in the US, because it could enable some resource re-balancing if it comes to that.

Russia coming out of this stronger helps none of us. The way I see it is that without starting this discussion we are steaming towards an inevitable outcome where Putin puts pressure on this issue and the whole world just gives up and lets him do whatever he wants.

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

Hello @dang this appears to be shadow banned and I don't understand why, it got a lot of interest and I think this discussion is useful for more people to see.

Did I violate any HN rule by posting this?

tionis• 4 years ago

What makes you think this is shadowbanned?

jaltekruse12• 4 years ago

It got 30 upvotes and many comments in the first 30 minutes, briefly was on the front page but now it isn't listed at all, I can only find it with search or a direct link.

Putin holds a major soft power weapon, help weaken it with gas and oil rationing

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