London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

https://spectrum.ieee.org/londons-crossrail-is-a-21-billion-test-of-virtual-modeling

by edward • 5 years ago

78 56 5 years ago

spectrum.ieee.org

flancian• 5 years ago

(2016)

dkdbejwi383• 5 years ago

Is that the original opening date for the line or the article publication date?

caffeine• 5 years ago

I think this is a (good) joke, but just in case - the article.

DrBazza2• 5 years ago

Announced this week that they're aiming for Feb 2022.

https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/27/crossrail-aiming...

bambax• 5 years ago

Indeed. From the article:

The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year.

Currently the project hopes to be able to open one line in 2022 (maybe) and is at least half a billion pounds over budget.

jl6• 5 years ago

Only half a billion? So 2% over budget? That sounds great for an infrastructure project.

Symbiote• 5 years ago

That is a pessimistic spin on things. They're opening the final part of the line (the new tunnels), they're confident of doing this in February, and there's a clear plan on how the rest will open in stages in the following 12 months or so.

https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2021/07/12/crossrail-to-mak...

scoopertrooper• 5 years ago

Well, in fairness the events of the last two years have probably caused delays to many infrastructure projects.

sgt101• 5 years ago

Filled with tumbleweed (except there is no tumbleweed in London)!

riedel• 5 years ago

Damn, they forgot to integrate people into the model?

Reason0773• 5 years ago

"The first Crossrail trains will start running in 2017, and when the network is fully open in 2019, it will shuttle an estimated 200 million passengers every year."

We're half way through 2021 and still waiting! According to the latest project update, "Crossrail Ltd plans to bring the Elizabeth line into passenger service as soon as practically possible in the first half of 2022."

tsywke44• 5 years ago

Who cares? These are rail lines which will be used for centuries. Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

moeadham• 5 years ago

I think a lot of people care.

detritus• 5 years ago

Well, in the context of the linked article and hence the comments here, it seems relevant to mention the fact - 5 years after the article's publication - and to consider whether the reliance on comprehensive digital modelling might be in any way to blame for the delays?

throw0101a• 5 years ago

Trust me, nobody will even remember a few years of delays.

I remember someone commenting that given the choice, it's better to delay shipping video games if you need to fix things. This is because not long after release no one will remember it being late, but everyone will remember (hearing that) it being a pile of garbage.

Reputations are often very hard to shake.

Reason0773• 5 years ago

"Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays."

If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models.

Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.

radycov• 5 years ago

What churlish asinine myopia. Plenty of people affected by life changing disruption to their living conditions and communities. Seveal years of putting your life on hold is a big deal.

neverminder• 5 years ago

People who bought their houses along the line expecting speedy commute care very much.

FridayoLeary• 5 years ago

I'm inclined to agree. Every time i use the tube, i'm reminded that the Victorians were more ambitious in their infrastructure projects then us. But still, i haven't heard anyone having a nice word to say about HS2, i wonder if anyone here could explain the pros of it.

monkeydust• 5 years ago

Impressive implementation of a digital twin. Looking forward to finally taking a ride in this thing when it opens.

notjustanymike• 5 years ago

This should finally validate hacker movies that do a swish 3D fly-by of the bank/casino/high-school they're breaking into.

davidgerard• 5 years ago

(2016)

loufe• 5 years ago

Can anybody here give a quick overview of why there are such delays for the line opening?

crocal• 5 years ago

Crossrail is legendary in the field as the example of what not to do when managing mega projects.

What I was told by greybeards: systems engineering was non-existent and rushed to the « let’s start to concrete » phase. When the project started to install the various systems, all hell broke loose. For example, systems had to be taken in, then out, because they just didn’t work in the field.

Side note: which makes this article really a good laugh. Who cares if your virtual model works if it does not in the real world?

OK so, that would not have been too bad if the management of the mega project would just have recognized the fuck up and declared delays. Instead, it scrambled to find ways to recuperate the accumulating delays, while reporting green to the politicians. As usual, a cretin came into the room to suggest that signalling tests could be compressed down and commissioning tests could proceed while construction completed the remaining work.

Problem: crossrail decided to experiment with a new hybrid signalling system that uses two different types of train control in order to maximize throughput in central london area. That turned an already rotten idea into an impossible one. Situation in the fields became insane. Signalling contractor shot a letter to cover ass. Politicians finally noticed, and sent clueless consultants to investigate, therefore opening the gates of hell.

Aaaaah. I like the scent of Napalm in the tunnels.

EDIT: typos

ArchitectAnon• 5 years ago

I've worked on some mega projects as well, and the key to being on time and on budget is to manage the PR so that no-one knows when it's supposed to be completed and how much it's going to cost. The only difference between Crossrail and private sector projects is that there is no press scoutiny over how much over budget they have gone and how late they are.

dang• 5 years ago

Discussed at the time:

London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11562799 - April 2016 (11 comments)

London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11378752 - March 2016 (1 comment)

London’s Crossrail Is a $21B Test of Virtual Modeling (2016)

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