What if aviation doesn’t recover?

https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-aviation-doesnt-recover-from-covid-19

by pedrodelfino • 6 years ago

37 62 6 years ago

economist.com

bankim• 6 years ago

Paywall. Can we get access to the full post?

vsareto• 6 years ago

outline.com/https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-av...

dredmorbius5• 6 years ago

Direct URL: https://outline.com/VVqWMy

xwdv2• 6 years ago

If aviation doesn’t recover then it’s back to the old days when a ticket costs a minimum of $1000 and only a privileged few can travel very far. Hopefully no one who is retiring now had plans to travel the world because whatever they saved up won’t be enough.

justinator3• 6 years ago

Think when I get to retirement age, plan is to travel the world, by bike. The Americas will take a while; once done with that, I'll maybe hop on a boat.

jbay808• 6 years ago

I hope you retire very fit and healthy!

amwelles2• 6 years ago

Bicycle touring is so much fun! I did a four-day trip a couple years back, and there’s something about slowly pedaling your way from point A to point B that’s incredibly satisfying.

tehjoker• 6 years ago

Aviation has always been implicitly or explicitly state supported. Worrying about the market is just a farce.

Think about how research is done, the aircraft makers get fat on their defense grants, airport land and infrastructure are built with subsidies, the transportation to and from the airport are usually public buses, metro, or public roads, the regulation of airspace by the FAA is taxpayer funded, the security theater is provided by DHS, it goes on and on. Only the most visible part of the system is really "deregulated" and run by people trying to make money. Even then they get bailed out whenever they whimper.

bcrosby95• 6 years ago

Then what mode of transit isn't implicitly or explicitly state supported? Even when I walk somewhere I use the sidewalk.

henryfjordan• 6 years ago

Boating?

But that's kinda the GP's point, that the state WANTS you to be able to travel. Travel encourages trade, which generates more tax revenue. Of course the govt will support any sufficiently large mode of travel.

classified• 6 years ago

The risk that sidewalks won't recover is just as low.

catalogia• 6 years ago

I suppose it would be too much to hope for more trains.

twblalock• 6 years ago

Would you get on a train right now, during a pandemic?

I wouldn't, and I like trains more than most people do. I'n sticking with my own car for transportation for the foreseeable future, and everyone else who owns a car is doing the same. I'm not going to put myself in a large metal box full of other people who might be sick.

gilbetron• 6 years ago

Trains can feasibly put in ventilation systems that shoves inside air out, and pulls in fresh air. Recirculating air systems are the nasty part with covid. Trains aren't (much) concerned with weight, so can easily pack on the ventilation. I travel periodically for my remote job, and getting on a train on a Monday, working all day, then being at my HQ for several days before working all the way on a Friday sounds much better to me at this point.

Building more rail lines ... well that's another matter.

darren_• 6 years ago

Yes, and regularly, and so do millions of other Tokyo residents. Cases here are up to ~200 daily new cases with (AFAIK) zero linked to public transit (and this is weeks after our quasi-lockdown ended). If public transit/trains were by definition a significant risk factor Tokyo's situation would look a _lot_ different.

Now maybe a train stuffed with non-mask wearing people talking constantly would be a different issue.

rumanator• 6 years ago

Would you get on a train right now, during a pandemic?

Why, yes. I remember taking the high-speed train from Madrid to Barcelona some years ago in the preferente+ class, which cost me about 90€, and there was so much room that, with the exception of my side chair, I couldn't touch anyone else if I reached out in any direction.

And IIRC each carriage had about a 50-seat capacity.

That's a far cry from your typical sardine can experience in any airline, including in high-end seats.

mcpherrinm2• 6 years ago

What if aviation doesn’t recover?

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