China’s Pig Pandemic

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-24/china-s-handling-of-swine-fever-outbreak-similar-to-sars

by acdanger • 7 years ago

123 36 7 years ago

What I worry about is that an increasing population also means an increasing "surface area" where diseases can occur in the first place, not just that they spread faster.

whoevercares• 7 years ago

>Meanwhile, China's hierarchical system remains fragmented and autonomous below the top levels of power.

exponential decay wrt distance to Beijing

toxik• 7 years ago

「天高皇帝遠」 as the Chinese saying goes. (en: Heaven is high and the emperor far away)

elgenie• 7 years ago

Russian has a very similar adage:

До Бога высоко, до Царя́ далеко. (God is high above and the Tsar is far away)

networkimprov• 7 years ago

I heard: "The mountains are high, and the emperor is far away."

ChoGGi• 7 years ago

China’s Pig Pandemic Should Worry Everyone

What's up with the title? I could understand for something like SARS, but African swine fever only affects pigs.

dpark• 7 years ago

This is discussed throughout the article.

While the outbreak may not be as immediately dangerous to humans as SARS, the official response should worry Chinese, as well as public health authorities globally. Thanks to its geographic position on migratory bird routes, its vast and largely unregulated livestock industry, and its weak public health institutions, China is a prime candidate to serve as the incubator for the next pandemic capable of killing millions of humans. Ensuring that Beijing responds to that epidemic in a responsible manner must be a global priority.

AMerrit• 7 years ago

The title is alarmist, but the article backs it up somewhat. The handling of this pandemic (even if it only affects pigs) can tell us how they may inadequately handle an epidemic among people. It also factors into inflation in the Chinese economy as pork is one of the primary sources of protein for many Chinese. Food supply instability in China is good for no one.

MR4D• 7 years ago

My thesis is that food price instability (say, a doubling of prices) in a short time would lead to massive social unrest, possibly revolution.

China expends enormous resources to maintain its country (arguably, it's more efficient as 3 or 4 separate countries), and a jump in the cost of food would disrupt that delicate balance.

blang• 7 years ago

Virus mutation can allow viruses to just species:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Hypotheses_about_t...

downrightmike• 7 years ago

It is possible that the Spanish flu originated in China and was brought to Canada by laborers: https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140123-span...

chrisweekly• 7 years ago

just -> jump, right?

jhayward• 7 years ago

Viral reassortment and horizontal gene transfer are particularly of concern in swine, because they can host many viruses that also infect humans. If a novel swine virus combines with one of the zoonotic diseases a human pandemic is possible.

Reassortment in swine is a primary mechanism for how the influenza virus mutates so often, making it a moving target for vaccines.

wemdyjreichert• 7 years ago

Viruses have a nasty tendency to move from animals to people, particularly in places like China where people and animals are very dense and sanitation is horrible.

ssnistfajen• 7 years ago

It's an opinion piece, seemingly subjective statements like this one is common place.

The key takeaway is the slow and ineffective response from Chinese authorities at tackling the spread of African Swine Fever. China's response to SARS attracted a lot of criticism and the swine fever epidemic has shown that a lot of the flaws haven't been fully fixed. This paves the way for a future epidemic that may infect humans. It is somewhat alarmist but also very valid concern.

An infectious disease that doesn't impact humans can be just as destructive on our society by destroying economically important livestock or crops.

zelon88• 7 years ago

Aside from the very good points I've already seen pointed out...

The prediction is that 30% of China's pig herd will die. Pork is their staple protein and if 30% of their supply disappears the price will go through the roof and then it will be almost impossible to deny on Chinese media that there's an out-of-control epidemic and the government isn't prepared to do anything about it.

exhilaration• 7 years ago

Don't they have massive pork reserves?

pergadad• 7 years ago

Any new pandemic can come mainly from two possible sources:

- mutation of an existing pathogen affecting humans - mutation of an existing animal pathogen so that it can start infecting humans

The first is more likely with inadequate treatment and lack of containment, the latter is more likely if there's more exposure of humans to the animal virus. With 130 million pigs infected with this disease there's quite a lot of exposure.

dang• 7 years ago

We'll take the everyone-worrying out of the title above.

AndyMcConachie• 7 years ago

TFA says: "For decades, the Chinese government’s top priority has been the preservation of social stability."

It should say: "For millenia, the Chinese government’s top priority has been the preservation of social stability."

jquery• 7 years ago

Isn’t the idea if a “continuous China” for millennia largely a myth? Expanding, fracturing, re-unifying? [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Chinese_history

kartan• 7 years ago

I think that it is like any other country. The USA has existed for 232 years. But Alaska and Hawaii only joined in 1959. New Mexico joined in 1912. And has been divided for 1.7% of the time (4 years of civil war) while still was incomplete.

All nations sell the idea that has longer histories that they really have. The concept of nation is a useful improvement over tribalism and city-states. But, it is just fiction. Nations are created, changed and destroyed all the time.

So, you are completely right about China being largely a myth.

slurry• 7 years ago

Except when it wasn't for a few notable decades.

microcolonel• 7 years ago

It takes less than a decade of concerted effort to erase ~4000 years of culture.

China’s Pig Pandemic

Related Stories