Is Genocide Predictable? Researchers Say Absolutely

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/12/20/675582639/is-genocide-predictable-researchers-say-absolutely

by mhb • 7 years ago

20 7 7 years ago

Headline: Is Genocide Predictable? Researchers Say Absolutely

Article: "We're not forecasting with precision. That's not the intention of the tool"

Forget about learning how to code, this journalist should read Eliezer and learn how to use language to describe and articulate uncertainty.

zzzcpan• 7 years ago

The article sounds a bit naively clueless, like the world leaders don't know what genocides are and what could lead to them. They are the ones who approve covert and overt operations that start all the conflicts leading to genocides. They definitely know how war propaganda works and how and why genocides are made. They have no problem with mass killings to begin with and they definitely wouldn't want some model to stop them. Selling wars and genocides to the public is in their job descriptions.

woodandsteel• 7 years ago

like the world leaders don't know what genocides are and what could lead to them. They are the ones who approve covert and overt operations that start all the conflicts leading to genocides.

I strongly disagree. Genocides take place in specific, generally small countries due to specific circumstances and politics. You seem to think that everything bad that happens in the world is due to a few evil powerful leaders, and things in every other country would be simply wonderful if it weren't for them. I think that is terribly mistaken.

timoth3y• 7 years ago

You can't really have a "prediction model" that does not make predictions.

Their research into the causes and contributing factors of genocide seems very worthwhile, but it's not prediction.

In the same way, understanding and monitoring plate tectonics is valuable and worthwhile, but its that is something very different than earthquake prediction.

squozzer• 7 years ago

Interestingly, the U.S. currently ticks off many of the early stages of a country headed for a bloodbath, according to Stanton. There's polarization, discrimination, dehumanization. But strong legal and government institutions in the U.S. are likely to block such a disaster from happening, he says.

Any 'Murican with a social media account would agree with the first two sentences.

But I'm not sure about the third. It seems our strong institutions are not impartial, and can be bent to serve strictly political purposes.

opwieurposiu• 7 years ago

South Africa is headed for genocide of the Boer, it's not a big secret.

Predicting it is easy, preventing it is not.

vibrato• 7 years ago

That is just a right wing conspiracy /s

Is Genocide Predictable? Researchers Say Absolutely

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