The 2018 MacBook Air is the iPhone X’s ASP strategy all over again

https://9to5mac.com/2018/10/31/asp/

by nothinggoesaway • 8 years ago

114 103 8 years ago

9to5mac.com

java-man2• 8 years ago

than

and the original title is different.

tvjunky• 8 years ago

This. "Then" is also capitalized. I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees this.

java-man2• 8 years ago

Thankfully, the OP changed the title.

ape4• 8 years ago

They use helium to make it lighter (joke)

hencoappel• 8 years ago

A reference to the article about helium breaking iPhones?

PhantomGremlin• 8 years ago

The article is wrong when it says: Absolutely nobody who knows anything about Macs – or computers of any kind – is going to recommend that they buy the old model.

Two things better on the old model: keyboard and MagSafe.

I'm glad I own an older Macbook Pro Retina. I'd always have "keyboard anxiety" with any of the new models: is this the day my keyboard fails? And: do I dare take my laptop outside? Will airborne dust get into the keyboard mechanism?

Bah!

sys_64738• 8 years ago

MagSafe is very cool and given the investment in power bricks I have around here it'll be a hard habit to break.

For me the most interesting aspect here is knowing there's an upgrade path now for legacy MBA and Mini owners.

Legacy MBA owners don't generally want modern MBP laptops due to price/keyboard/etc but don't want the MB either as it looks like a toy.

falcolas• 8 years ago

Not to mention that CPU technology hasn't advanced sufficiently to render the old model obsolete. Most, if not all, tasks you can do on the new model can still be done quite competently on the old model.

pier254• 8 years ago

I bought a 2017 MBA for $800 a couple of months back for my wife and, with all its faults, I think it's a better deal than the new 2018 MBA.

Other than the outdated display, performance is perfectly adequate, and battery/trackpad/keyboard/SSD speed/ports are still doing great.

rconti3• 8 years ago

I'm split. I have a 2011 Air that I rarely use. The 4MB of RAM and slower CPU is the major problem with it; screen resolution is a distant third. I keep thinking of buying the most modern USB-A-and-SD-card-reader-equipped AirI can find, because it truly is the best machine I've owned. On the other hand, new and shiny! And I almost never use the SD card reader or USB port, it's just nice to have. And the keyboard is fantastic.

lambda_lover• 8 years ago

For friends who don't care about how pretty or color accurate their display is, the old Air can't be beat.

xoa2• 8 years ago

The article is wrong when it says: "Absolutely nobody who knows anything about Macs – or computers of any kind – is going to recommend that they buy the old model."

You're absolutely correct here, though I disagree with you on saying the "keyboard and MagSafe were better" is necessarily the reason. It's more fundamental, this is one of those "things everyone knows" that was a product of its time and is rapidly (or long since) obsolete but will no doubt linger for a while. When it comes to "computers" (as in traditional desktops/notebooks) that probably stopped being true at least a half a decade ago or more. It's not the 90s or 00s anymore, a decent 8 year old system can still be a solid performer (perhaps needing an SSD upgrade at that age, but SSD improvements have now slowed too). Getting an "old model" that meets ones needs at a significant discount will probably be how many people get their systems. The newest will carry a bigger premium.

Mobile systems are now going that way too. A 2-3 year old iPhone is still a fine device and can count on years more of software support from the mothership. That looks to be Apple's new plan for addressing different price points: rather then build new "entry point/midrange/high end" models each year, the "entry point" is simply "the model from 2 years ago", the midrange is "last year" and the high end is the newest.

Synaesthesia• 8 years ago

Because it’s smaller?

geodel4• 8 years ago

I think weight wise MacBook Air is not much lighter than MacBook Pro 13". But it is about 500 dollar cheaper than MBP with newer 8th gen processor. I guess will wait until MBA gets cheaper or cheaper MBPs get new processor and keyboard.

pier254• 8 years ago

and keyboard

I'm also waiting for new keyboards but I fear it will take a couple of years.

I imagine a new keyboard means a complete redesign, and considering the new MBPs were released in late 2016 I doubt we will see new models before 2020.

Apple used to release new Mac models ever 2-3 years but the Mac line is not a priority anymore (it's only 10% of Apple's revenue).

rectang• 8 years ago

Weren't the keyboard reliability issues largely addressed with the addition of membranes which keep out debris? Or is it a change of feel that you're hoping for?

masklinn2• 8 years ago

I think weight wise MacBook Air is not much lighter than MacBook Pro 13". But it is about 500 dollar cheaper than MBP with newer 8th gen processor.

Except it's a dual-core Y-series (same as the macbook) while the 13" MBP gets a quad-core 25W U-series, and the MBP comes with double the storage (that alone accounts for $200) and connectivity.

geodel4• 8 years ago

You are of course right. I was mainly looking 12-1300ish MBP with newer processor or about 1000 dollar MBA. Since I can wait for a year or longer, maybe there will be better pricing then.

utopcell3• 8 years ago

Not sure I agree that the Macbook is "an inferior machine at a higher price". At 12", it is the only <13" offering currently.

Hamuko• 8 years ago

What do you gain with picking a 12-inch display over a 13.3-inch display?

yoz-y2• 8 years ago

Is this a trick question? If you are in the market for a smaller than 13” computer then that’s that.

randyrand• 8 years ago

more portability.

charlesju2• 8 years ago

As someone that loves his Macbook, I thought I'd give some context for my decision to buy the Macbook and why I'd still probably the Macbook if I had to choose again today.

It really comes down to two things

1. Weight

2. Tolerable Performance

The Macbook I have has a 1.4 GHz Core i7 and 16 GB of ram. Very rarely do I feel that I have issues with the daily things I need to do with the mac, which are some light programming/scripting/SQL and even hums when I have to do spreadsheets and manage multiple websites.

Given the performance is very good by real life standards, the weight is really the big issue to consider.

This is a considerable amount of difference between 2.03lbs and 2.75lbs. That's 35% lighter, that's a huge percentage when you have to drag your laptop around everywhere with you. I would gladly pay up to $1000 for that weight cut because of how much better my quality of life is with a smaller and more portable Macbook.

For me, I need to have my computer with me everywhere I go: dinner, hiking, vacations, etc. Having it do everything I want in a reasonable performance threshold and being 35% lighter, the Macbook is still by far the superior product.

gumby• 8 years ago

It’s so tiny it’s practically the size of an iPad. If you travel a lot this can be a huge deal. I did a ton of development on one and it was great, but I had a beefier machine for visualizations and big compiles. Still, the tiny 12” is my go-to computer, small disk notwithstanding.

It also appears anecdotally that the smaller screen is more popular in Asia than in US/EU (for both Mac and Windows).

manicdee2• 8 years ago

My carry-on and camera bags have a pouch for this size laptop, originally the 11” MBA. The bags only cost a hundred each so I am not putting a large dollar value on a laptop that fits.

The smaller laptop is lighter, and when we have airlines aggressively enforcing 4kg limits on carry-on, every gram matters. I put my chargers in checked baggage, while my camera, lenses and laptop live in carry-on.

An extra 200g of laptop means leaving behind part of my camera. Not price sensitive about one-off purchase, but I am price sensitive about more frequent purchases!

drb912• 8 years ago

Seriously. I just bought one for travel and loaded it with ram and I couldn’t be happier.

logicallee3• 8 years ago

and I couldn’t be happier.

Even with the keyboard? May I ask how fast you type (roughly) and whether you use it much for text input (such as emails) or programming?

masklinn2• 8 years ago

Also it's 2 lbs versus 2.7, that's a fair bit of difference.

notatoad2• 8 years ago

i think you're making the author's point for him. it's an inferior machine in every way except for an inch of screen size. People are willing to pay extra for a marginally smaller computer, and apple is happy for that.

utopcell3• 8 years ago

Size is a big feature though.

akshayB2• 8 years ago

Apple have created a mess by providing multiple options between Airs and Pros. If you upgrade the RAM to 16GB on Air it surpasses the base model of Pro and similarly other storage options. At that point you should rather buy a Pro over Air because the only major difference is size. Lot of this is totally confusing for non-technical folks and they might just end-up making a wrong purchase.

gok• 8 years ago

Note that the Pros have meaningfully faster CPUs/GPUs than the Airs at every configuration.

akshayB2• 8 years ago

plus ports and peripherals too

mbell• 8 years ago

You're largely ignoring the primary differentiator in these machines, the power class of the CPU/GPU.

If you use the base model in each category, set all the machines at 256GB disk and 16GB of ram and use geekbench cpu numbers as a performance metric, you get the table below. Also geekebench is a pretty short test, I would guess that the core-m / y-series models will fall further behind under sustained loads. I don't think this is a particularly bad spread of options.

  2017 Macbook                  - 1.2Ghz dual, 3.0Ghz T  - $1499   GBS:3740 GBM:6835

  2018 Macbook Air*             - 1.6Ghz dual, 3.6Ghz T  - $1599   GBS:4189 GBM:7896

  2017 Macbook Pro 13 (non-TB)  - 2.3Ghz dual, 3.6Ghz T  - $1699   GBS:4333 GBM:9440

  2018 Macbook Pro 13 (TB-quad) - 2.3Ghz quad, 3.6Ghz T  - $1999   GBS:4643 GBM:16540

[*] For the 2018 Macbook Air I'm using geekbench numbers for the higher end 7th gen Y-series CPU as I can't find any benchmarks for the i5-8210Y so this should be considered an estimate.

arnvald2• 8 years ago

I completely agree. I've been using MacBook Air mid 2013 for the last 5 years and it's a great laptop. Now I'm considering buying a new one, and Airs just don't make sense for me anymore.

In Singapore the difference in price between cheapest Air and cheapest Pro is less than SG$100 (US$70). The only advantage of Air is longer battery life, but that's it.

I think at this point the Air series should be merged with MacBooks. Make it small (12"), give it one more USB-C port, upgrade processor, add TouchID and it's good to go.

toyg2• 8 years ago

The only advantage of Air is longer battery life

And less weight.

(I was going to say "and less volume", but one end of the Air is actually thicker than the MBP, so overall volume might not be that different in the end - even though it does look smaller.)

colinramsay• 8 years ago

I have no idea why they don't abandon either the non-Pro Macbook or the Air and consolidate. Have an Air and a Pro only, because the overlap between the Air and the non-Pro Macbook seems to serve only to confuse.

This seems to be the same issue that the (seemingly) ever-increasing lineup of iPhones and iPads have.

xoa2• 8 years ago

So I did a search in the article for the word "inflation" and found no hits, but I think it's something that the tech world is going to have to start getting used to after decades in the steep part of a S-curve that let it defy the normal. In most of the developed world at least inflation is generally quite low, but it's not zero (nor is zero or worse deflation a healthy sign). For electronics there has been a long time where constant improvements in process technology, efficiency, mass manufacturing tech, and just plain ever larger scales as it went global, meant that every year or two allowed more to be done cheaper.

But at this point that's heavily played out. Progress is certainly not "done" by any means, and the slowdown is uneven (GPUs still scale more easily for example), but it's not exponential or essentially "free" anymore either. Bumping into harder physics means process shrinks keep getting harder and vastly more expensive for less gains, the low hanging frequency improvements and IPC has been picked, a lot of the trivial vectorization and parallelism done, hyper cheap mass labor utilized, the easy parts of the global market gobbled up, etc. There are also softer issues like inequality to deal with and in turn a wider spread in prices people might pay.

So tech companies are going to face a more "normal" world, where no a device from a year ago or two years ago or even 5 or more years ago isn't necessarily "obsolete". That means they'll need to figure out how to start raising prices over time just to keep pace with inflation let alone secure more growth when expanding marketshare or cutting costs is ever harder. But the public has been conditioned for a very long time to expect prices to always stay the "same" (which really means it's falling in real terms over time) or outright drops on the sticker price. Figuring out how to navigate that to a new normal without promoting undue backlash is something everyone will need to grapple with. One approach that Apple may be going for is to just take some pages from mature areas like cars, where there is a huge premium for "brand new", and large percentages of the population are fine getting used or "last year's that didn't sell" (let alone an "old model but newly manufactured" which isn't really a thing with cars) and will never buy brand new their entire lives. But "old" models still get support for a long time and to the basic job fine.

Other strategies of course include trying to shift more into ongoing services revenue, platform monetization (be it a cut of software sales or ads), premium support offerings, etc. Different players will try different mixes. But nobody will be able to avoid it anymore then other industries, at least not unless some other huge productivity shift (automation related perhaps) happens.

rconti3• 8 years ago

This was my thought too; even though the article is from a pro-Apple site, the author wasn't trying to make any excuses, he just laid out the facts. He didn't bother trying to address WHY one would try to raise ASP; margin is obviously one reason, but simply keeping up with inflation is another.

toyg2• 8 years ago

Inflation has been in the (low) single digits for about 20 years in most developed nations.

An iPhone cost $200 in 2008.

The combined rate of inflation in the US since 2008 is 17.2%. So an iPhone should cost less than $240 today, if inflation were the main driving factor.

The cheapest iPhone costs $450 now. The technological equivalent of that 2008 model costs almost 3x.

Inflation is not a driving factor. You could raise IT prices 5% YOY and nobody would bat an eyelid.

bryanlarsen• 8 years ago

The 2008 iPhone cost $200 + $480 of operator subsidies.

ken• 8 years ago

No, $200 was the "subsidized price" as part of an AT&T service plan: "AT&T, like most U.S. carriers, offers a variety of phones that we sell below our actual cost when customers agree to sign service agreements." [1]

The cheapest non-subsidized ("no commitment price") iPhone you could get back then was $499. At your 17% inflation rate, that's almost $600 in today's dollar, so Apple's entry level iPhone is actually a little cheaper than in 2008.

[1] https://www.att.com/Common/merger/files/pdf/iPhone/Pricing_U...

mixmastamyk• 8 years ago

Was only that cheap with a contract, right?

kec• 8 years ago

The unsubsidized launch price of the base model iPhone was $499 in 2007, which would be $600~ today, not too far off from the $749 price of a base Xr, and worse than the $449 of a base 7 today.

bbrodriguez• 8 years ago

When I started seeing posts of people complaining about the price, it was mainly complaints about how the updated model was more expensive than the outdated model that languished for several years. I would argue that the new model still launched at a cheaper price but the rate of price reduction definitely slowed down enough for people to notice. Considering the first MacBook Air launched in 2008 at $1,799 starting price, that would be around $2,100 in today's dollars adjusted for inflation. Then the second gen launched at a reduced base price of $1,299 in 2010. That would be around $1,530 today. Compare that to the 2018 version that just launched for $1,199 which is still several hundred dollars cheaper.

I think the rate of price reduction in tech has slowed down enough that even though the prices are being reduced, the inflation offsets the perceived price reduction and ordinary people just get upset that Apple jacked up the prices yet again.

rconti3• 8 years ago

Interesting theory about the iPhone X being "obviously different" than the lower end iPhones last year, and how it would immediately signal if you had the 'latest' device or not. I suppose that's somewhat inarguable in terms of the iPhone ecosystem, particularly when powered on, but my favorite thing about my X last year (and especially now) is how anonymous it is. With a generic black quad lock case on a black phone, sitting face-up on a table, literally all you can see is black, and a tiny slit for an earpiece. If you look REALLY closely you can see the camera next to the earpiece. There's no home button to say "this is an iPhone", or advertise whether it's a touchID home button or an even older physical home button. It could be absolutely anything. The only real giveaway is when it's on, or if you put it face down; the stacked cameras were fairly distinctive.

I mean, I certainly didn't choose it over some other phone merely because WASN'T flashy, but I'm a lot happier buying something that doesn't advertise itself.

jiveturkey2• 8 years ago

imho that is some serious rationalization. you likely don’t see yourself as a flashy person so you have to construct a reality where the phone is the extreme of that — anonymous.

i have news for you. for anyone that does care, you can tell an iphone X all the way across the bar.

overcyn2• 8 years ago

Why are you criticizing someone's personal aesthetic preferences? So you think that the iPhone X isn't understated. Doesn't mean that someone who disagrees is doing "serious rationalization" or "constructing a reality".

fouc• 8 years ago

Author is implying that ASP is rising for the Macs, but he didn't look at prices in the last 10-15 years.

cmsj• 8 years ago

ASP is rising in the last couple of years, but it's only recently crossed the level it was at a decade ago.

slivym• 8 years ago

To be honest I think this article is making a lot off nothing. TL;DR: New models, higher prices. Keep the old models just in case someone is super price sensitive. It's not rocket science is it.

pentae• 8 years ago

The worst part is that for many of us, we'd be happier to pay the higher price but Apples giving us LESS. A worse keyboard, no magsafe, no USB-A, worse thermal management, less reliable, more expensive and difficult to maintain.. the list goes on. If the new machines weren't a big step backwards in some areas it would be a much easier pill to swallow.

oculusthrift• 8 years ago

still not sure why we have both a "macbook" and "macbook air". they seem to occupy the same market segment. i thought apple was all about minimizing choices.

sithadmin• 8 years ago

Job's Apple was about minimizing choices.

At this point, Apple is nearly back to the mid-90's state of having an assortment of overlapping products that compete against each other due to overlapping pricing.

mrpippy• 8 years ago

They are a lot more similar than they were when the MacBook came out a few years ago. However, the MacBook is fanless (which also means much slower) and smaller/thinner/lighter than the Air.

Will the MacBook stay around? I suspect Apple is quite disillusioned with the performance that Intel offers in this TDP range, and the MacBook will either get dropped or go ARM.

4ad3• 8 years ago

The MB uses a 5W CPU, the Air uses a 7W CPU, still miles behind the performance of real laptop CPUs like those found in the Pro line.

If you need to decide between MB and MB Air, performance should't enter into it, it's almost the same.

fetus8• 8 years ago

I have a feeling that in the next year, the macbook may disappear again. I know others have mentioned the size and weight being a huge draw for the macbook, but I can't imagine at it's current price, many people will pick it.

I could see Apple just dropping it again and focusing on the Air/Pro lineup.

rickyc091• 8 years ago

Working with kids, I actually see parents purchasing middle schoolers MacBooks over MacBook Airs. As the kids enter high school, they often opt for the MacBook Air over the pros. I suspect as they get into college, they'll end up with the MacBook Pro.

avidphantasm• 8 years ago

My first reaction to the new MacBook Airs was, gee I could use that to replace my 15” 2015 MBP. I’ve been wanting a machine with TouchID, but I don’t like the touch bar and like a physical escape key. With cloud work becoming more prevalent, maybe 2 cores and 16 GB is enough.

hartator2• 8 years ago

Just ordered one for dev work. Hopefully it’s enough.

gambiting• 8 years ago

I almost did as well, and then I saw that they are equipped with the "Y" series of CPUs, so extremely underpowered 5W-limited series that normally goes in the basic Macbook or fanless tablets. It looks like they have completely neutered the CPU in the Air, where it no longer is a machine intended for anything more than light web browsing. It really shouldn't be called an Air - more like Macbook XL(Or Max, or whatever the current nomenclature is).

4ad3• 8 years ago

the 12-inch MacBook is still there in the line-up, price unchanged. It makes no sense: it’s an inferior machine at a higher price. But it will find a market with those who know nothing about technology and simply want the sleekest possible device.

Meh, what a load of BS. I know a lot about technology and prefer the 12-inch. Form factor matters, both to professionals like myself and to "people who know nothing about technology".

40acres• 8 years ago

The Macbook and iPhone lines are really mature. They've both been around for a decade now, Apple is doing a good job of continuing to squeeze the juice out of these fruits and these sort of strategies are textbook when it comes to executing on a mature product line.

I think Apple's biggest question is what's next? The Apple Watch is really starting to hit's its groove and I think within the next few years will become a really fantastic product (even moreso than now) but what's next?

mikhailt2• 8 years ago

All of their hardware are mature, what’s next need to be the software.

iOS is way too limited for what the hardware can do.

macOS is way too slow compared to what Windows feels like on the same Mac hardware.

They need to focus on the software right now.

ghostly_s• 8 years ago

macOS is way too slow compared to what Windows feels like on the same Mac hardware.

What are you smoking?

hapless• 8 years ago

Is ASP rising faster than the cost of goods sold?

dmode• 8 years ago

I just browsed Apple's site to compare the models and it confused the heck out of me. https://www.apple.com/mac/compare/

The MacBook, new Air, and 13 inch Pro are roughly priced the same with very few discernible differences. An average buyer would be very confused.

kkylin• 8 years ago

The choice now seems to be weight XOR battery life XOR performance, whereas one used to be able to get 2 out of 3 IMO.

abrowne• 8 years ago

It looks like the new Air has a 7 W chip, more like an active-cooled MacBook, while the non-TB Pro has a 15 W chip like the old Air. Only the TB MacBook Pro 13-inch has a 28 W chip.

But I know how to and what to look up. For most people: super confusing.

jzl• 8 years ago

Best comparison chart I've seen so far: https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/10/30/18042744/...

otikik• 8 years ago

For those who wonder, like me, if Apple is doing Active Server Pages: "ASP" means "Average Selling Price".

zomg• 8 years ago

What the author is really discussing is Apple's PRICING strategy. This has nothing to do with ASP, which is an internal metric that I doubt external to Apple is privy to.

The 2018 MacBook Air is the iPhone X’s ASP strategy all over again

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