iPhone Future

https://mondaynote.com/iphone-future-7ce9c2e4fad4#.u85p7kmhu

by shawndumas • 10 years ago

31 60 10 years ago

Oletros3• 10 years ago

particularly when compared to the company’s competitors whose reliance on an increasingly fragmented Android macrocosm isn’t likely to lead to a polished, reliable experience.

I would know why he says that Android fragmentation is increasing and what he means with fragmentatoin

macalicious• 10 years ago

You don't disagree, do you? More and more companies are using an Android OS, thus, the increasing amount of (device) fragmentation.

Oletros3• 10 years ago

What do you mean with "fragmentation"?

jsjohnst8• 10 years ago

What percentage of the market is running Marshmellow? How many are even 5.0+? That's one serious indicator of fragmentation alone (there's a lot more), and trends don't show it improving.

Edit:

Here's a link to some numbers from Google [0]. Per their own chart, ~55% of Android users are running a 3 year old or older OS.

[0] https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Pl...

bobbyi_settv• 10 years ago

The average consumer doesn't know or care if there phone is on 4.0 or 4.1 or whatever. They care if their phone works well and integrates well with the services they care about. There isn't much sign that Apple is going to overtake Android in the ways that matter anytime soon, regardless of which exact version your are running.

cageface8• 10 years ago

the iPhone will surely not go the way of the iPod. Apple’s “pocket computer” is more likely to follow the trajectory of the Macintosh: It will continue to take a significant but slowly growing share of the market, while pocketing a large share of the profits.

Apple's market share continues to slide, as his own graph shows. If he expects Apple's market share to grow he should explain why. So far all the indicators point the other way.

flyinglizard• 10 years ago

I think that a definitive conclusion on Apple's stand in the market calls for more elaborate analysis of the data. For example, if the majority of the growth in the overall mobile market is attributed to low cost smartphones, it'd be likely for Apple to miss on that.

AFAIK, Apple doesn't lose customers, it just doesn't gain as many as the overall market - and it still outpeforms the other mobile makers on revenues/profit by a huge margin.

jsjohnst8• 10 years ago

Are we looking at the same article?

1) he shows no graph depicting anything to do with market share, let alone one showing it sliding. There's two graphs, one showing a dip in sales volume, another showing a dip in overall smartphone buying.

2) he did explain why he thought that, near the end of the article

cageface8• 10 years ago

iPhone sales are slowing, Android sales are not:

http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-tre...

So market share is declining.

The reasons he gives for Apple's market share to increase are not new. They have been losing ground despite the conditions he describes. If we wants to argue that Apple is going to reverse this trend he needs to give new reasons.

lern_too_spel• 10 years ago

And it was a horrible explanation. MacBooks are functionally superior to Netbooks. That is not the same for iPhones. Phones from other manufacturers that cost significantly less do significantly more than iPhones do. That is why sales volume is shrinking in a growing market.

51Cards• 10 years ago

He says that he sees other phones acting as a gateway to iPhones but I seem to see the reverse happening. I have seen a number of users getting frustrated with the lack of options in the iPhone market and moving on to other devices more tailored to their personal needs. The "generic" iPhone is what they bought first until they found more appealing devices that suited their specific desires better. I know very few people who've gone from Android to iPhone, especially in the last couple years.

sxg2• 10 years ago

Your anecdotal experiences definitely don't match my anecdotal experiences.

I think we need to be careful with these kinds of stories.

jsjohnst8• 10 years ago

I've seen a number of the transitions he saw a couple years ago, but an almost equal number coming back now. Many I know that switched, are now coming back, realizing that "cute customizations don't offset the fact things just work better on iOS" (not looking to get in a debate, just repeating what they said).

hugi• 10 years ago

This is pretty much the exact opposite of what I've experienced within my group of friends/family.

crapolasplatter4• 10 years ago

I tried the Iphone for the trial period due to its popularity once. Never again. Multi-tasking on the android is a breeze and flows more naturally vs my experience with the iphone. Plus the Iphone while once set the standard it now appears to be trailing far behind most android devices.

I recently switched my mom from the iphone to samsung s7 because it has a SD card storage. She recently lost all her pictures because the iphone died on her and there is no way to get it back . She had tears in her eyes because it had pictures of the grandkids. Keep in mind she has no internet nor computer at home she just wanted a phone wiht camara capabilities .

I had to explain to her that unlike her previous android phone that had removable SD card storage the IPHONE ecogreedness doesn't, because they want you to pay for there icloud storage.

Hence I switched her back to android with SD storage. Which makes it breeze to swap cards when they fill up and back them up without having to use craptunes.

Not saying androids are the best thing since slice bread but I don't see the hype about iphones and there closed ecosystem?

api2• 10 years ago

Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening up the platform a little? I mean the app store model mostly. It's high degree of restriction seems like it's holding the platform back and keeping it from eating more market share from desktop.

Of course maybe that's not something they want. Apple still sells laptops and desktops and a more open iOS could eat into Mac.

ceejayoz• 10 years ago

Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening up the platform a little?

Its reputation for being mostly malware-free, for starters.

api2• 10 years ago

We need to really fix platform security.

indianhippie2• 10 years ago

Paid apps are far from dead. I buy apps all the time. I bought a watch face for Pebble half hour ago. Developers need to feed their families and I see buying quality apps very similar to buying good coffee or food.

cageface8• 10 years ago

You are an outlier:

http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapch...

All the indie iOS devs I know gave up long ago and took regular jobs writing apps for companies that give the app away for free as part of some larger business model.

LargeCompanies• 10 years ago

As a seven year iPhone owner I'm bored by it!

Why isn't it water proof yet? Why hasn't Apple released a wireless charging feature? Why haven't they come up with something freaking amazing..iWatch no one wants that. Apple TV with Apple cable TV service people might want that but why haven't they bought Dish who has sling TV or made similar purchases?

I don't think I'm the only bored iPhone owner?

indianhippie2• 10 years ago

I couldn't agree with you more. I'm bored. The thing is I like the simplicity of iPhones and I have been using them for past 7 years as well. Now it got to a point where small incremental features were not doing anything for me. I switched to Nexus 6P recently. It is one hell of a phone. So many features, so much customization! The access to file system (not root) is one thing that I would not be able to live without anymore. Having directories to put files and music in is so simple and similar to using a Mac/PC. I do miss iMessage and FaceTime though. If the rumor about WWDC bringing iMessage to Android is true I don't see a reason to go back to the iPhone.

subpixel• 10 years ago

Having directories to put files and music in is so simple

This could be the reason I finally ditch my iPhone. I want to grab a file on my Mac, push it to my phone, and not A) have to use a paid app to do it without iTunes or B) have that file be automatically sent to some stupid place on the phone (audiobooks, ibooks, etc.)

cageface8• 10 years ago

I can't figure out why Apple has neglected their stock keyboard for so long. They finally added autosuggestions but their keyboard still lags far behind third party offerings in speed, feature set, and flexibility. And third party keyboards are still so buggy on iOS as to be almost unusable. About 90% of my use of a smart phone is messaging in some form so this is a big deal.

And iMessage is buggy enough that I long ago switched to WhatsApp and haven't looked back. Apple makes great hardware but their software is increasingly falling behind the competition.

xbmcuser• 10 years ago

Access to the file system is one of the major reasons I have seen people move to Android from iphone and then stay on it. I was always an Android guy but have seen in the last few years many iphone users moving to Android and then staying on it. The people that have stayed with iphone are mostly that just use the iphone for messaging, email and Facebook.

mch82• 10 years ago

Is a phone supposed to be exciting?

(I'm using "exciting" to mean the opposite of boring)

TheLilHipster• 10 years ago

Our phones are the the most personal electronics we have, they bloody well should be exciting (for us geeks at-least).

I love finding new uses for this pocket computer: http://i.imgur.com/SNody25.jpg

untog• 10 years ago

Yep. I'm honestly not sure how important it is that the iPhone is exciting, but it still needs to be making meaningful progress for people to keep upgrading

Waterproofing and wireless charging are tried and tested on Android. Meanwhile no one I know uses force touch and most have turned off live photos. TouchID was probably the last truly great iPhone innovation.

cageface8• 10 years ago

Meanwhile things core to the user experience like iMessage, the stock keyboard, Photos, iCloud Drive, Mail etc are buggy and unreliable and/or lagging far behind the competition. The base model is still has an absurdly stingy 16GB of storage.

But at least we can look forward to an even thinner phone with bad battery life and buy expensive lighting audio adapters so we can accommodate their fetish for removing ports.

whichdan• 10 years ago

I'm not even bored, but disappointed. The iOS 9 upgrade made me unable to access music on my device, photo backups are sorted into hundreds of subdirectories, re-authenticating iCloud automatically re-enables iCloud Backup and iMessage, and I need a third-party calendar app because they removed the month view that gives me a truncated title for each event. There are some other small annoyances, like being unable to permanently leave the phone in Low Power Mode, while only two phone models support Apple's battery case.

I'm just not convinced that Android won't have an equal number of strange problems.

balladeer• 10 years ago

It is kind of a cliche by now but so are the questions we have been asking Apple and demands we have been making to the company over the years.

I am no sales and marketing expert but at some basic level, it comes to me that Apple probably doesn't innovate (in a way - relatively; esp. when compared with innovations in Android phone market and in ridiculously low cost phones at that) because it doesn't have to. Apple knows that it has a userbase that would keep buying its phones (in some cases as long as close to 7 years) even though it was so lacking in innovation and still kept charging the awe-tax.

No, I am sure you are not the only bored iPhone user. I have a friend who has owned every iPhone (one from each release - he had a 6s but still bought SE and then sold it) since the first iPhone and never stopped whining about it but still says, when I ask why he keeps buying, "because it's an iPhone and it has a 'feel'".

post_break3• 10 years ago

I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation and terrible battery life. I gave up a lot, customizations, amazing tweaks, workflows, etc. I miss Android. There are so many things I can't do on iOS and it frustrates me.

Siri is no comparison to Google now. (You make some sacrifices here)

Using iTunes to manage everything from apps to music is a buzzkill.

Homekit is a bag of hurt.

You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome? Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad.

I'm putting up with these compromises because at the time the 810 wasn't performing well and on Android smaller screens means lower performance.

cdubzzz2• 10 years ago

You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome? Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad.

I'm confused. What do you mean by this?

post_break3• 10 years ago

If ask siri to route me somewhere it only opens Apple Maps. Same for clicking on an email link.

Tap a URL and it opens Safari every time.

crapolasplatter4• 10 years ago

"I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation and terrible battery life. "

I can relate. I had some many fragmentation problems with android that I said I'm done with it, then I tried Iphone. However, I returned my iphone before my trial period expired. I just couldn't sacrifice the android UI flow, multitasking ease of use, and a open ecosystem.

So I ended up getting the Note 3 when it first came out . That was like 3 years ago and I still have the same phone without any issues. My batters is now finally starting to give out and is only lasting about 6-8 hrs with use. However a new battery is only like 7 bucks on amazon.

I think 2 things happened that improved my fragmentation issue with android. Android itself has matured but more importantly I stopped all the automatic updates from my carrier and apps.

I observed with my previous android devices that once a new phone came out all the sudden my phone became slow as molasses . I'm under the opinion with nothing to back it up with, other than my observations is that the carrier (atleast ATT) updates the phone and purposely degrades performances with newer apps and updates to get you to buy a new one.

I don't think this is possible on the iphones because I don't believe that the carrier is allowed to bastardize it like android but I could be wrong? However that has been my observation and the one advantage I see for ios.

bitmapbrother• 10 years ago

After letting Samsung and others take the lead in large screen smartphones (5.5” or larger phablets), Apple Finally introduced its own large iPhone 6 Plus in September 2014.

What an ignorant comment. Samsung pioneered the large screen smartphone. They took the risk when everyone was mocking the size of their phones as if they were jokes. Once the market proved them correct everyone else rushed in - including Apple. To belittle this accomplishment speaks to this person's bias towards Apple.

Apple never let Samsung take the lead in large screen smartphones - instead they did what they usually do - wait for another player to create the market and then move in on it.

skygazer• 10 years ago

I think your description of what happened is exactly what is meant by "letting Samsung and others take the lead" -- Apple let itself be surpassed, in that it could have done otherwise, but didn't.

surds• 10 years ago

After a series of Android devices, my first iPhone was the 6 Plus. The main reasons for me switching over were: 1. Ridiculously reliable battery. (People who have used both platforms will mostly agree, I think.) 2. 6 Plus was the first iPhone that did not seem tiny to me. 3. I really wanted to use it myself for a while and form my own opinions.

A year and a half of use later, my thoughts: 1. Totally awesome battery experience. 2. It's good, stable, reliable but it gets so... boring.

My next phone, whenever it is, is probably going to be the largest Nexus device available.

On a side note, it is so great to read a series of comments about iOS and Android that does not degenerate into a trolling competition.

cageface8• 10 years ago

FWIW battery life on my Nexus 6p has been very good and also consistent. Nexus is definitely the way to go if you want an Android phone.

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