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whiplash451

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Why inefficient? If Claude continuously makes the system more efficient based on demand, there's no reason for the system to be less efficient than if it was managed by humans.

negative feedback - and dismissive feedback - is something you need to be prepared

OK. Let's RFM: first line = "Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes."

So, no, it's not HN-OK for rude & unfounded feedback to make it to the top comment.

Even if the website is "bad" (i.e. those 30 papers were never linked to Ilya etc.), the proper way of handling this is to call it out in a neutral way.

At this point it might be about talent.

He could raise and build his own company. But the ability to attract the level of talent that Google/Anthropic/OpenAI have is a different story.

Maybe because they know where things are going with Gemini (more ads to your face) while Anthropic might, for once, have a different story.

When personal finance is not the bottleneck anymore, the new criteria becomes "vision" and "stacked talent".

Not something I would pay for to use outside of work

You wouldn't but apparently your employer would.

I don't disagree with you on robotics, though. For an empire like softbank, not buying an "insurance against the rise of robotics" also seems like a mistake to me.

That being said, they may expect robotics to rise through self-driving cars (hence their investment in Wayve).

Not if the model is part of a broader product that happens to be very useful/relevant to private companies willing to pay a lot for it (e.g. a coding agent that can do many things but won't help you build a frontier LLM model).

My intuition is that Claude and the likes are going gung-ho after this, along all the verticals that will generate money without threatening their moat.

The moat looks deep today but it's going to become more shallow every year.

Unless the frontier labs start nerfing their models, which is exactly what seems to be happening.

The counter-point to your argument is a future where less and less un-nerfed open-source frontier models exist. Sure, China/Meta might keep commoditizing their complement by releasing un-nerfed models, but these come with their own limitations too.

I am worried that the door to great open-source frontier models might be closing by the day now.

it takes O(10) people to build one of these things

To build a working prototype, sure. To operate at production scale, definitely not. The same rule would apply to WhatsApp and many other world-scale products. Turns out that, the moment you need to monetize these machines, your O(10) stops working.

Gmail has become unbearably slow over the past year.

What used to be instantaneous (like, opening an email) now takes seconds.

Google, what happened to you?

Maybe because distilling small models from bigger ones that you control gives you better small models than fine-tuning from bigger models you don't control?

(I am not claiming it is the case, but stating this as an assumption)

Companies don’t care about it but governments certainly do.

Over the past 150 years, the work week dropped from 70+ to 35h in France.

Granted that’s a long time horizon but still.

The point is that we should be directing our energy in a direction that’s net useful for human kind which should translate into growth. Dropbox is not one of those because there are many viable alternatives.

You are also reminded of the same dichotomy when you (the renter) get a letter from your landlord asking you to leave the premises you’ve liked a lot for the past few years.