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tli

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Scientist: "assuming a frictionless sphere in a vacuum... ...we can build a limited but useful model"

Media: "Scientist was wrong because the world is not a vacuum"

People act under the assumption that the power law is some fundamental property of the universe. But it seems the 10x effect exist partly due to network-effects, and partly due to a minimum barrier requirement for liquidity. It's economically infeasible to support mini-size IPOs because the fixed overhead cost of regulation, auditing, legal work, and underwriting is too high.

With all the stigma associated with ICOs, lower barrier to liquidity may be a good thing overall. The power law phenomenon incentivize entrepreneurs to take excessive risks and force VCs to adopt extreme portfolio management strategies.

It sounds like the key difference from the typical ICO page is the promise of a 13 fold return.

I'm curious to see how they managed to phrase the promise, but it seem to have been removed from the page.

There's the greater fools theory. People are happy to spend $100k on something that they believe they can turn around and resell for $150k in a month.

There's also an anchor effect from loss aversion. If I bought a crypto-cat for 1 Ether, and then Ether price increase by 300%, I might refuse to sell the crypto-cat for less than 1 Ether, even though there's no intrinsic reason for my cat to appreciate at the same rate as the base currency.

A few reasons I can think of:

Financially, having the option to do X has a certain value, even if on average X isn't valuable. (If X has volatility)

Startups has a certain risk characteristic that is different that what you can find on the public equity market. Theoretically, an efficient market should dish out higher reward to compensate for higher risk and poor liquidity of investing in startups. It may be beneficial to individuals to use startups to diversify their overall portfolio.

Startups in general might not be a great investment. The subset of all YC startups might be.

Researching and investing in startups is fun and educational.

The formula is more complicated than this. Services such as shapeshift.io guarantee the price for 10 minutes, as well as sending purchased tokens almost instantaneously. To accomplish this means keeping inventory and becoming vulnerable to volatility risk and liquidity risk.

Picking a reasonable bid-ask spread is hard, and probably involves more input factors than the 4 you listed above.

Startup = Growth 14 years ago

"It's the same with other high-beta vocations, like being an actor or a novelist. I've long since gotten used to it. But it seems to bother a lot of people, particularly those who've started ordinary businesses. Many are annoyed that these so-called startups get all the attention, when hardly any of them will amount to anything."

I see so many comments on HN poking fun at VC backed startups with underdeveloped business models. Sure, a lot of the criticisms are well deserved, but I wonder if a part of it is because people are bothered by the power law phenomenon.

I think pg recognizes the post for it's marketing brilliance, which is why he is calling bs.

It was interesting that aside from having the scrappy image, many of the athletes used in the analogy(Ichiro, Nash, and Dirk) happens to be foreign. The post is an attempt to differentiate from a leading competitor for talent on multiple fronts(Home Run vs Singles/Globalization vs Valley/Hackers vs Marketers).

The notion of "life hacking" something as sacred as friendships will no doubt offend a lot of people, as evident by all the negative responses. But I do believe that your closest friends influence your goals, priorities, and outlooks on life. My social circle took a drastic change when I moved from Seattle to Palo Alto 5 years ago. The new friends I made were on average a lot more ambitious and driven. Collectively they've had a profound impact on who I am over the years.

This article unfortunately came out in a Tim-Ferris-four-hour-work-week-over-the-top-douhbagery sort of way, but I think the author means well. We shouldn't be sucking up to successful people in hopes of befriending them for profit, nor should we ditch our "go nowhere" friends for fear of drag. But we can always strive to put ourselves in environments that positively influence us.

I was just looking at options for push notifications in ruby. I found a gem called apn_on_rails (https://github.com/PRX/apn_on_rails) which sort of worked. But I didn't know how to keep persistent connections and was afraid of accidentally spamming Apple's servers. I thought about outsource the problem to Urban Airship, but unfortunately their free service only works for 45 days then costs hundreds of dollars a month. Grocer looks really interesting and I'd definitely want to try it out.