torkins

It's the interpretation of the second amendment by SCOTUS that has been inconsistent over time, not the ACLU's position. Collective/militia rights is a widespread interpretation of the second amendment (which the ACLU holds). Interpreting "right to bear arms" as unrestrained individual gun ownership is not the default position just because modern NRA advocacy says it is.

The alternative to prosecutorial discretion is 100% enforcement of all crimes big and small. In either situation, the government would go after these people for their small crimes so the outcome for the targets you're mentioning is the same. Also, Capone was convicted by a jury on evading (in 2019 dollars) millions in taxes, so 'small' is relative only to massive corruption scheme and murdering he wasn't convicted on.

probably just a joke referring to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_Ivan_Ilyich

If don't you listen, you don't hear:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-ann-coult...

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/elizabeth-warren-to-berkeley-pro...

re: Scalise Shooting: In a statement, Senator Sanders wrote that he had been “informed that the alleged shooter at the Republican baseball practice is someone who apparently volunteered on my presidential campaign.” He went on to say: “I am sickened by this despicable act. Let me be as clear as I can be. Violence of any kind is unacceptable in our society and I condemn this action in the strongest possible terms.” https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/scalise...

edit: and Obama on the BLM shooting in Dallas rightly called it a racist hate crime http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/obama-dallas-police-sh...

That's my 5 minutes of doing your research for you. High ranking Democrat politicians don't tolerate heckler's veto, much less violence. Republicans are so cowed by losing support from their radicals that they can barely bring themselves to speak up against them. Charlottesville is notable in that its pretty much just Trump who failed to speak up.

I'm not saying shorting bonds/oil is like being long the market. I just picked a set of underlying assets that are much less correlated than e.g. S&P & Nasdaq. The directional choice (long/short) is really a choice of the investor. Correlations between products are not stable over time, so picking one vs the other is similar to a price bet (i.e. normally distributed). The main point is that the underlying assets are not highly correlated, and that they have liquid derivatives markets that can be used to reduce cost basis.

You may or may not make money on your directional choices, but the core strategy is to be short option premium to make your expected value positive, and to have low internal correlation amongst your assets to reduce volatility in your portfolio.

I'm not 100% sure I understand what you're trying to say re: upward bias/downward bias. However, buying options do have a negative expected value so I agree about that. Selling options is the strategy, and conceptually is similar to selling insurance. Limited profitability, positive expected value. Just like an insurance company, you keep your risk diversified to reduce volatility and keep positions small enough to prevent busting out during drawdowns.

I'm not suggesting buying options (except as part of a spread)

(replying to durkie)

I don't know about every buy-write index investments, but BXM specifically is done with essentially ATM (technically the very first strike OTM I believe) calls against the long position, then held to expiration and cash settled. In a long bull market like the present day, this approach will always underperform the market while having reduced volatility. It should overperform the market in down or sideways markets. Also, volatility induces drag so in a compounded return, all else being equal, lower volatility will yield higher returns.

Diversifying amongst uncorrelated products is an important missing feature to this strategy for the purposes of reducing volatility. If only considering writing covered calls/puts, I'd personally prefer to reduce volatility through diversification, and sell further OTM options to reduce basis so I keep more of the directional risk in each individual position and have lower transactional costs.

Also, BMX holds contracts to expiration rather than benefit from cyclicality in price and implied volatility by closing/rolling options early when they move in your favor or scaling into positions during volatility expansions.

That's possible, but it isn't currently the case. At a minimum, having a long vanguard 500 position has a roughly 50% + positive drift - fees chance of success. Part of the long vanguard 500 price bakes in the unlimited theoretical upside that comes along with it. Selling option contracts against that long position to give up that upside beyond a certain price reduces your cost basis and pushes your position's success rate over 50%. Repeated over many events creates a net positive expected value.

Even if there was no edge in the market, as in your premise, it's still the case that the upside of a long S&P 500 equity position is unlimited, and the upside of a long S&P 500 equity position with an option sold against it is limited, therefore would be priced to have a superior chance of success relatively speaking. More market participants would improve the price accuracy of risk, it wouldn't reduce the price of risk to zero.

As for whether its worth it, I think the aggregate effect is significant and, of course, is subject to the benefits of compounded returns, so it doesn't take much to severely outperform your other prospects in the long term. It's up to each of us to decide if its worth learning.

edit: typo

Sure, the guys at tastytrade.com put a ton of effort into educating people and providing a platform (dough.com) that provides this information. I think it has some organizational issues, but my way to start would be to start with the 'Where Do I Start' series they have.

In short, that site largely revolves around the fundamental premises of a random-walk view of prices, and using the time-decay of selling options to reduce the cost basis of holdings over time. There's a lot of treatment and research on correlation of different assets (equities, different kinds of commodities, currencies). My advice if you follow this is to start small and stay actively engaged without getting over-confident at early success. There is a lot of getting used to the mechanics and learning the products so that you can make it a manageable part of your life, time-wise. Also you need to make sure you properly understand the relevant notional values you're dealing with so you can do proper sizing.

BTW quick answer to your first question, here's a sample basket of lesser-correlated assets that the typical index funds that all boil down to being long the market. One of the cores of having a random-walk view of things is that the choice of direction (long/short) is less important than the strategy & cost basis reduction (all of these have liquid option markets):

Long S&P (/ES or SPY) Long Gold (/GC or GLD) Short Bonds (/ZB or TLT) Short WTI Oil (/CL or USO) Long Euro/USD (/6E or FXE)

I think the short answer to your question is "both". You need a portfolio with diversified product risk and diversified strategies. You don't need to be a quant to make a basic stab at this with the typical retail portfolio size, there are tons of tools for free on the internet to do this kind of thing. Most people who know enough to not be in managed funds still have no idea how to have anything but basically a 100% long equity market portfolio (I'm intentionally grouping together mostly meaningless 'diversification' between highly correlated segments like midcap/largecap/nasdaq/dow) except to make it long bonds. So I think there's basic product and strategy knowhow to organizing and maintaining a portfolio.

The reason I said both is because of the 'maintaining' part. Without some level of activity, its effectively impossible to be engaged with the market enough to take advantage of opportunities and manage your portfolio to keep enough diversification and reduce the internal correlations in your holdings/strategies.

It might sound complicated but it can be learned and it isn't rocket science, and there is a lot of great technology to assist anyone, not just software devs. Managing your life savings is a better investment of time than many other pursuits, in my view.

Anonymous downvotes not withstanding, I'm interested in comments from anyone informed on the subject who's critical of the approach I mentioned. I don't find much discussion on the subject in forums.

It's funny because I agree with all those statements and add "people will listen to Jeff Siegel and just jam their money into index funds and close their eyes until its time to retire". So they lose coming and going (but lose less relying on index funds than buying gold funds).

Personally I think actively managing your money is the better solution, but the active desire not to manage money from so many people (even otherwise active and engaged people like the HN crowd) has led me to being in favor of a stronger govt-backed pension system rather than tax-deferred accounts that hurt our tax base and are a windfall for trustees.

If you're interested in an alternative to the traditional suggestions, I'd suggest the derivative-trading approach you can find espoused at tastytrade.com. It's not for those who don't want to learn and engage though.

I'm pretty sure I replied to you last time ;) One important aspect of looking at returns is comparing different strategies, but another one is in realistic planning. There's a lot of literature and marketing out there touting, in my view, grossly unrealistic numbers like 7-8% annualized compound returns as a reasonable expectation for sticking your money in an index fun on the S&P. Considering the huge differences in the effect of small changes to the annualized returns, it's important people have a realistic idea of the volatility in that expected number when they allocate the amount of money they save for the kind of retirement they want.

This graphic is awesome primarily because it shows that it is not correct to assume that volatility in the equity markets is averaged out completely during a timespan that is comparable to the average savings portion of a career.

edit: oops, meant to reply to GP

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I said you make a rate based on the market return (as stated on the treasury site). I also said the additional return you get is based on having it be non-transferrable, and in the case of the annualized 3.5%, 20-year term, severely illiquid asset. That's also true. I think the risk of illiquidity is major risk, and I don't at all agree they are decent investments for that reason. I realize this is a zombie thread but can't help but reply. Just because there are other, also terrible, low risk debt products in today's market doesn't make this one reasonable. The value of an investment has to be measured based on what you're getting out of it, not just relative to other investments. That's why I remarked on being better to be in cash than bonds: bonds have a huge actualized and opportunity risk relative to their yield.

I'm glad you like it but I don't follow how you infer dollar cost averaging from this. There's no statistical advantage to dollar cost averaging over lump sum investing (actually the opposite due to the median return beating inflation). I'd argue the main benefit is a realistic expectation and understanding of the range of returns to help you plan better.

The graphic isn't presented to compare stocks with the alternatives of cash/bond yields. I think the major service done here is setting a realistic expectation for the returns you might see in your lifetime. It's especially relevant for people who's major investing periods have/will occur in the 2000-2020 timeframe of sluggish growth and ultra-low yield. The Jeremy Siegel '8%' number is a really dangerous number to set your expectations on when saving. If you do, you might be 20 years in and well outside the bounds of a timeframe where compound interest can help you live the retirement you were aiming for before you realize your mistake.

To be clear, there is a price for the bond, which is the amount you pay for it. For EE bonds, you pay what you choose, and earn the Treasury-specified rate on that amount. However, this amounts to being priced just like other bonds. If you read the Treasury website, you'll find that they specifically state that the rate for newly purchased bonds is set based on current market conditions (today 0.1%). This balance between principal and interest is why people use terms like 'yield' to accurately describe bonds. An EE bond is no different (because there really is no edge), and if you make any more on it (not much), it's because you're giving up the liquidity of a transferrable bond.

For an audience that might be interested in being a bit more self-directed, take a look at the approach of the guys at http://tastytrade.com.

what makes you think this wouldn't be priced into bond yields? There is trillions of paper in the market, an arbitrage is eaten by the entities who make their living doing it. There is no secret edge.

Bonds are a horrific investment in today's market. Rates are lower than they have been since WW2 when they were fixed by the government! The principal and interest risk for owning bonds is essentially at an all time high. You'd literally be better off in cash in rates rise even somewhat in the near future.

It's ridiculously high. For a better evaluation, see probably one of my favorite visualizations of all time:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110...

As with all trustee-run plans, people should evaluate the investment options before moving the money in. The HSA I personally have access to is great for saving taxes on expenses, but if I wanted to use the investment options rather than sit in cash, my only options are high-fee managed funds (there's a lot less pressure on these vendors than on 401k trustees due to less public awareness)

This. The typical portfolio drummed up by roboadvisors corresponds to basically stone age portfolio theory. With a tiny amount of personal responsibility and education, you can replicate the same and net the difference in fees without spending your life thinking about finance to try to do better.

If you just want to 'set it and forget it', consider its an approach you're taking with the fruits of decades of your life.

[edit: typo]

Another interpretation of finding that people we perceive as noble turn out to have flaws might be that noble people are people, and people have flaws. If anything, being flawless would actually take away from their success since they wouldn't be dealing with the same crap as the rest of us.

Einstein appears to have been a big-time philanderer, for example. Doesn't detract from his contributions to our society in my view.

Liquidity in instruments other than equities (options/futures/futures options) is getting worse, not better. Wider spreads and less liquid markets actually do disproportionately affect smaller investors who are doing anything other than straight equity buying and selling. HFT isn't hurting liquidity and isn't nearly the problem it once was, and this doesn't do anything to address the actual problems in dark pools or auctions or the non-transparent part of the market.

I use it day-to-day as do some others in my company, and we also use it for all our cloud deployments. You have to relearn a number of things, like setting configs and so on, but on the other hand for nix pkgs it is nearly always a completely hands-off process regardless of whether you need to build from source or not (Nix handles that as part of the build, retrieving binaries from a remote cache is an optimization). I recommend giving it a shot!

Minor point but the hearing where this evidence was presented was actually a probable cause hearing, not the trial. Still, the defense can inspect these searches in discovery (fairly sure that's so in Georgia though not a lawyer) and rebut the narrative of the prosecution.

actually "we" called those attacking the coalition and Iraqi military "insurgents".

Plenty of actual, Iraqi civilian targets were killed by Al-Qa'ida in Iraq and other terrorists with car bombs, suicide bombers, hostage takings etc.

The distinction is pretty clear between the two, I think if you are accusing media of whitewashing all Iraqi insurgents under the banner of terrorism you should back it up.

These are easy problems for you to solve on your own, but since you don't feel like it I'll give it a shot.

1) You don't need to speculate what neurobiological means using phonetics, it's a real word with a definition you can just look up if your actual interest is in the facts. Neurobiological actually means related to the nervous system of the body. ALS is also neurobiological, and I'm guessing you wouldn't say it "sounds" psychological.

2)If you'd bothered to look, you'd find there is actually quite a bit of study of D2 and D4 availability correlated with ADHD symptoms. Like virtually all medical diagnoses both psychological and physiological, differential diagnosis is done by combining probabilities with presented symptoms, and not with exhaustive testing. Your requirement of diagnosing ADHD with a brain MRI is the equivalent of requiring endoscopy to diagnose an ulcer.

So what you say is factually incorrect, there's plenty of evidence. That's why the scientific body of many countries including the US has classified it as neurobiological (not psychological) for years, and the bulk of the scientific community believes pharmaceutical treatment is necessary in the same way that a broken arm needs to actually be set instead of telling the patient not to be lazy.

If you want to use scare quotes and insist on unfalsifiable assertions "prove the negative 'not' the result of psychological conditioning" then you are placing your argument in the same category as climate change deniers and anti-vaccers - anti-science, anti-rigor, pro-scare quotes.

So given that ADHD is, in actual fact, a neurobiological diagnosis, not a psychological diagnosis, then I guess you're stating your support for treating it with drugs?