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timshell

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proof of human @ www.roundtable.ai

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research.roundtable.ai 1mo ago

CAPTCHAs can still detect AI agents

timshell
84pts72
mayankagrawalphd.substack.com 2mo ago

Omaha as Judgment Day for AGI

timshell
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mayankagrawalphd.substack.com 2mo ago

Proof of Human as a research agenda, not a product feature

timshell
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mayankagrawalphd.substack.com 2mo ago

Why I Turned Down a Tenure-Track Professorship

timshell
1pts0
micheljusten.substack.com 3mo ago

A Guide to the AI Tribes

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2pts0
mayankagrawalphd.substack.com 3mo ago

The Cartel: the talent was always there, the market access wasn't

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3pts0
mayankagrawalphd.substack.com 4mo ago

The Most Interesting Fund in the World

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news.ycombinator.com 4mo ago

Notes from the trough of sorrow: why we killed our own product

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3pts0
research.roundtable.ai 10mo ago

Why behavior beats device and network in bot detection (benchmarks inside)

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3pts0
swh.princeton.edu 10mo ago

Humans experience cognitive fatigue to go offline and replay memories [pdf]

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5pts0
www.science.org 11mo ago

Reproducing prospect theory with 'differentiable decision theories'

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39pts8
research.roundtable.ai 1y ago

Bot or human? Creating an invisible Turing test for the internet

timshell
141pts177
github.com 1y ago

Show HN: RoundtableJS – Open-source programmatic survey library

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49pts7
github.com 1y ago

Show HN: RoundtableJS – Open-source programmatic survey library

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13pts1
www.akqa.com 2y ago

Nike AI trains on game footage to simulate 1999 vs. 2017 Serena Williams

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3pts0
news.ycombinator.com 2y ago

Market research is built on fraudulent data

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3pts0
news.ycombinator.com 2y ago

Complex, but Robust Human Moral Decisions from Moral Machine

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1pts2
app.roundtable.ai 2y ago

Show HN: Roundtable (YC S23) – Survey Quality Control API

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8pts2
mayank-agrawal.com 2y ago

A new (computational) theory of cognitive fatigue [pdf]

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2pts1
news.ycombinator.com 2y ago

Show HN: Roundtable – Survey fraud and bot detection API

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21pts9
blog.roundtable.ai 2y ago

Automated Survey Bot Detection

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1pts0
blog.roundtable.ai 2y ago

Analyzing r/gaming and r/science through an LLM-based survey simulator

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1pts2
news.ycombinator.com 2y ago

Launch HN: Roundtable (YC S23) – Using AI to Simulate Surveys

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121pts91
roundtable.ai 3y ago

Show HN: Roundtable – Estimating survey results in seconds

timshell
7pts0

My team has been working on this in the concept of Turing Test and human vs. AI discrimination: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.06524

Specifically, our approach is to separate classic output-based approaches (CAPTCHAs, fingerprints, etc.) and instead look at process-based traces: how are cognitive process traces and broad behavioral metrics evolving over time with continuous human/computer use

Thanks all for the discussion! Would like to highlight two parts that maybe didn't come fully through, and we'll work on making this clearer:

1. CAPTCHAs can still detect AI agents...if you know where to look. Most commercial CAPTCHAs are not doing the cognitive process tracing you see in our paper. Nor are they really doing 'behavioral biometrics' (but that is slightly tangential here). Our CAPTCHA example here is about repurposing the current paradigm with a new methodology (cognitive process tracing) in a way that is able to combat human/machine discrimination in a way that's independent on frontier AI progress.

2. There are lots of concerns about adversarial robustness, which are very fair, and we reported some fine-tuning tests in the paper. Generally, there are two mental models for me that work, both framing fraud as an economic game.

First, compare AI spoofability concerns to something like a passport or a fingerprint. The cost to mimic continuous cognitive and behavioral patterns over time seems more computationally complex. In other words, sure this method is not bulletproof with infinite resources, but nothing is. We rely on defeasible mechanisms everyday, and our job is to make that significantly securer.

Along these lines, there's a common line of criticism that suggests once fraudsters know the game, they will solve the game. The CAPTCHA presence in the 2000s didn't mobilize massive deep learning / image recognition advances from the fraud community. Nor are these same bot farms solving quantum computing despite there being immense incentives to. If anything, the real threats are stuff like JavaScript injections, not really fully simulating human cognition

This is relatively close to our conclusion from the paper: unless agents are specifically trained for the task and know all the information ahead of time, they're not able to generalize from one cognitive CAPTCHA to another

My grad school research was on computational models of human/machine cognition, and I'm now commercializing it as a 'proof-of-human API' for bot detection, spam reduction, and identity verification.

One of the mistakes people assume is that AI capability means humanness. If you know exactly where to look, you can start to identify differences between improving frontier models and human cognition.

One concrete example from a forthcoming blog post of mine:

[begin]

In fact, CAPTCHAs can still be effective if you know where to look.

We ran 75 trials -- 388 total attempts -- benchmarking three frontier AI agents against reCAPTCHA v2 image challenges. We looked across two categories: static, where each image grid is an individual target, and cross-tile challenges, where an object spans multiple tiles.

On static challenges, the agents performed respectably. Claude Sonnet 4.5 solved 47%. Gemini 2.5 Pro: 56%. GPT-5: 23%.

On cross-tile challenges: Claude scored 0%. Gemini: 2%. GPT-5: 1%.

In contrast, humans find cross-tile challenges easier than static ones. If you spot one tile that matches the target, your visual system follows the object into adjacent tiles automatically.

Agents find them nearly impossible. They evaluate each tile independently, produce perfectly rectangular selections, and fail on partial occlusion and boundary-spanning objects. They process the grid as nine separate classification problems. Humans process it as one scene.

The challenges hardest for humans -- ambiguous static grids where the target is small or unclear -- are easiest for agents. The challenges easiest for humans -- follow the object across tiles -- are hardest for agents. The difficulty curves are inverted. Not because agents are dumb, but because the two systems solve the problem with fundamentally different architectures.

Faking an output means producing the right answer. Faking a process means reverse-engineering the computational dynamics of a biological brain and reproducing them in real time. The first problem can be reduced to a machine learning classifier. The second is an unsolved scientific problem.

The standard objection is that any test can be defeated with sufficient incentive. But fraudsters weren't the ones who built the visual neural networks that defeated text CAPTCHAs -- researchers were. And they aren't solving quantum computing to undermine cryptography. The cost of spoofing an iris scan is an engineering problem. The cost of reproducing human cognition is a scientific one. These are not the same category of difficulty.

[end]

Yup! It depends on your use case.

Cloudflare is really good at network bot detection. Rate-limiting is super helpful here, for example during DDoS attacks.

Our customers are a little different. They sometimes struggle with high-volume bot attacks (e.g. SMS toll fraud in ticketing marketplaces), but we specifically focus on online platforms that want to verify a human is on the other side of the screen. For example, survey pollsters and labor marketplaces want to stop a slow agent that can complete traditional CAPTCHA even if it's solving it a human speed

The 'Process Turing Test' extends the CAPTCHA from 'What would a reasonable person click' to 'How would a reasonable person click'.

For example, hesitation/confusion patterns in CAPTCHAs are different between humans and bots and those can actually be used to validate humans

I think about this as a startup founder building a 'proof-of-human' layer on the Internet.

One of the hard parts in this space is what level of transparency should you have. We're advancing the thesis that behavioral biometrics offers robust continuous authentication that helps with bot/human and good/bad, but people are obviously skeptical to trust black-box models for accuracy and/or privacy reasons.

We've defaulted to a lot of transparency in terms of publishing research online (and hopefully in scientific journals), but we've seen the downside: competitors fake claims about their own best in-house behavioral tools that is behind their company walls in addition to investors constantly worried about an arms race.

As someone genuinely interested (and incentivized!) to build a great solution in this space, what are good protocols/examples to follow?

Curious that you can "mix" PT & EU functionals (with perceptron) but not the corresponding "decision-making mechanisms"..?

Great push. We actually can't make any mechanistic claims from the data/math in this paper. From an ML prediction standpoint, we're mixing a PT and EU theory together. But to what extent that is the actual cognitive process we have to remain agnostic about. That being said, a reason this arbitration between EU and PT is intriguing is because there's a lot of work about arbitration between dual process models in psychology (System 1 and 2; model-free and model-based; labor versus leisure; etc.)

Great question! One of the core results of this paper was to explain this discrepancy. Basically, we found a 'mixture of theories' - a hybrid of prospect theory and expected utility theory, where people essentially arbitrate between one of the two decision-making mechanisms depending on the complexity of the gamble.

I'm one of the co-authors of this article.

The TLDR of this paper:

You can generalize theories of decision-making into broad functional forms and then apply gradient descent to find the best parameters for that functional form. For example, prospect theory is multiply a utility weighting function U(x) with a probability weighting function p(x). Kahneman and Tversky proposed one specific set of U(x) and p(x), but we can use autodiff to generate all.

We can apply this method to any functional form.

Happy to answer any questions!

Revisiting Moneyball 12 months ago

I think a common misconception of Moneyball is that it's about analytics. The broader lesson is that people need to systematically evaluate undervalued assets in sports/business etc.

One of the interesting 'post-Moneyball' stories is when old-school scouting methods came back onto the scene. People started overvaluing the new popularized statistics, and the market advantage was to combine the analytics and traditional approach in a cost-efficient manner.

These new tasks are based on the concept that humans are dumber than AI agents, making more mistakes and showing more randomness.

Hi this is incorrect. Different =/= dumber. The insight is that humans and computers have different constraints / algorithmic capabilities / objective functions / etc.

Agreed. Section 3 takes the idea to the extreme -- can a bot replicate human cognition? Traditional OCR CAPTCHAs were a good 'measure' that couldn't be fully gamed. That is, while the rise of computer vision made them eventually ineffective, the gains in computer vision did not come from bot farms