HN user
Thoughts of Theseus
Great point. Many Americans would prefer to buy (given) a flying car vs. build a flying car. Personally I believe there is dignity in self determination. To each their own.
You also lower the profits from the exporting country (China) through reduced volumes. China has been on a massive productivity growth agenda that is only sustained through open trade and exports.
That’s the goal. The current USA admin wants the 10k STEM PhDs to move into the private sector.
They’re the wrong numbers and people misunderstand the numbers. The consumption basket for CPI (food) is determined by consumption surveys. Not desire or historical consumption. You can have less and lower quality food with a rising spend on food.
For example, food away from home is down. People cannot afford to go out to eat as much. Rather than reflect the higher cost of going out to eat, the consumption basket reduces the proportion of food away from home.
There are also hard limits on food spending. People have limited money. Instead what you seeing is a continued increase in SNAP and record food bank usage.
Make no mistake. The young family or median person is worse off with food security today despite spending more.
Yes. USA financial markets are the envy of the world. Lots of capital which flows quickly.
Agree it will land more stable for most parties but it will be turbulent getting there. Global free trade under the USD has created many structural fragilities. Principally that we have global overproduction outside the USA.
That’s entirely the point. Leave the USA financial system or contribute more. If you pick an single alternative currency I’ll run through the reasons why most would choose the US Dollar.
Some dude at Treasury even wrote a book about. Juan Zarate, author of Treasury's War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare.
$30B over ten years to reduce blackouts and grid instability is a good deal. For reference, the 2021 Texas blackout caused ~$100b in damage.
Very very few people in the power industry want to run coal plants- but they cannot in good conscience turn them off. The whole “turn off the lights” mantra is not funny. It’s unfortunate the grid is fragile and facing increased demand. Operating coal plants, preferably at zero or super low utilization rates, for another ten years or so until the grid is more resilient seems reasonable.
If litigants receive relief through a PI, it addresses their specific harm. Extending it nationwide may be unwanted if other jurisdictions have different views on the policy. The Supreme Court’s ruling ensures relief is tailored to the parties or district, preventing a single district judge from dictating national policy.
While federal law applies uniformly, reasonable people and courts can disagree on controversial issues. Localized PIs allow diverse judicial input and foster a broader dialogue before a final ruling.
Court shopping for nationwide injunctions, common in cases like Obama’s DACA or Trump’s policies, lets one judge halt national policy…
Affirming a democratically elected executive’s mandate, Obama with DACA or Trump with immigration reforms is reasonable and respects the separation of powers.
IMO Congress needs to act more effectively, passing clear laws on issues like immigration to reduce reliance on executive orders and judicial battles.
If you win in lower court you can still bring the case to the Supreme Court to create national uniformity. One of the consolidated cases for Brown vs. Board of Education won in Delaware while others lost.
That is the appropriate way to determine national uniformity in law.
South Korea looks like they are pursing nukes already.
Funny thing about a recession now is you can have standards of living increase for 10s millions of people due to how concentrated consumption and wealth is. Weird times
That makes sense to me. They both banned Samurai swords.
What you are saying is simply not sufficient. Norway does more goods trade with China and for more advanced / complex goods. Norway is funding USA’s direct geopolitical competitor.
In case it’s not obvious, 100% tariffs on China means economic decoupling. Pick a side or strike out on your own but globalization as we know it just ended.
I would pay tons of money for control of the algorithms. It’s annoying I can’t tell YouTube, twitter, etc. what type of content I want to see, what I do not, the frequency, etc.
The complete lack of control by users of their feed makes Feed Providers publishers imo. Give me control or take responsibility for the content.
You can see this dynamic in various investment markets. Stocks are priced according to their expected earnings while fart coin is a repository of excess liquidity. If you massively increase liquidity through money/debt creation you pump asset prices. Assets with a well determined return profile are inflated, but those with an unknown distribution (speculation)see an explosion of value. Only people with large stores of wealth can invest in the memes without risking financial ruin from crashes. Terrible policy choice imo
Yes. Airplanes are complex, high value products with military applications. The skill set to successfully develop and field a fleet of planes is an obvious upskilling of labor which will bleed over to other fields. China cares about economic development so they will build planes over and over again until they master it. Aviation firms are one of the few industries which closely protected their trade secrets making knowledge transfers tough.
The defense primes are 5-10x larger by today’s market cap. It seems unlikely the defense industry will shrink from here. Plenty of room to run. Anduril has been conservative on valuation imo.
Private equity has not, as an asset class, had excess returns since around 2006. Prior to that, private market companies were systematically undervalued relative to public. Post-2008, an accommodative equity market has supportive private equity as a volatility dampener for portfolios. Volatility is often used as a proxy for “risk”. There are still many private market firms generating excess returns. It’s a competitive market now and many players are getting eliminated.
Private equity bought the Nestle water business. Now it’s owned by One Rock Capital.
#ThomaBravo
I don’t usually hear credible and thoughtful discussion on this topic…
Fiona Hill’s 2023 Lennart Meri Lecture describes this well.
Here’s a link:
The Western economies are focused on managing orderly decay and concentrating wealth into the elderly and elites. Not growth. Not durability. They are fragile, that’s why the money supply jumps to meet gaps. Expect more inflation in the West, you need a depression (short) imo to change this dynamic.
Russia, China, and Iran have a winning strategy. The West is about to lose this war and potentially its role in shaping global order. The Rest will rise up shortly after.
Maybe that’s good/bad, but global volatility has risks either way.
Reminds me of a simple app I made that whispers “here and now boys” like the Island through my AirPods.
Throwing large amounts of compute, power, and learning cycles is building fascinating outcomes. That alone means strategic competitors should be secret.
Please stop the wasteful spending.
Concentrate semi development geographically to realize synergies and economies of scale. Building redundant and competitive production thousands of miles apart in the Northeast/Great lakes, Texas, and the west Coast is not the best idea when you are resource and labor constrained.
No such thing as a global gas price. Natural gas pricing is regional as it cannot be easily transported.
This article is relatable
It’s weird thinking the public policy measures enacted during the pandemic were designed to make wealthy people more wealthy and increase consumption of goods and services.
We had a chance to use the pandemic to fortify our society against future challenges. Instead we’ve made our communities more fragile and more vulnerable to future shocks.