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sweettea

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sweettea@dorminy.me

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I didn't realize Ello was so young! One of my kids went from barely a reluctant reader to a proficient reader near the start of your lifetime then, I am deeply grateful we had tried so many things. Massive props.

We Need to Die 8 months ago

In sum, the author proclaims that without human death, nothing people do has a time limit so people wouldn't have any incentive to do.

But this is false - even if we were a sovereign observer only, the universe is constantly changing and evolving, species go extinct, the seasons are never the same. And we are not just observers, we are also actors - we have opportunities to create today which will not be available in the future. You cannot create the Internet today, it already happened. You cannot spend arbitrary time traveling to and fro across the galaxy to talk to friends, the molten iron geyser you wanted to see at Betelgeuse will no longer be running by the time you get there. Perhaps time motivates us, but our death is not the only thing which limits time.

My understanding is that it's an expected value based on coverage in each of the ensemble scenarios, not quite as simplified as "how many scenarios was there rain in this forecast cell".

At least for the US NWS: if 30 of 100 scenarios result in 50% shower coverage, and 70 out of 100 result in 0%, this is reported as 15% chance of rain. Which is exactly the same as 15 with 100% coverage and 85 with 0% coverage, or 100 with 15% coverage.

Understanding this, and digging further into the forecast, gives a better sense of whether you're likely to encounter widespread rainfall or spotty rainfall in your local area.

Many keyboards use the qmk firmware these days, qmk.fm, which can be programmed with the Vial configurator, get.vial.today .

Here's one typical qwerty-ish layout for 42 keys: https://mark.stosberg.com/markstos-corne-3x5-1-keyboard-layo...

And for something more weird but still fully featured, Miryoku is a fairly common micro-keyboard layout, https://github.com/manna-harbour/miryoku .

Why? Well, I really admire Jonas Heitala's documentation of his journey to find a layout that fit his aesthetic: https://www.jonashietala.se/blog/2023/11/02/i_designed_my_ow... . My layout isn't as extreme, it's still qwerty-ish, but I've been heavily inspired by his thorough analysis.

A well reasoned article that fundamentally downplays both the pace of innovation and the exponential increase in capabilities per dollar happening over time. AI is rapidly accelerating its improvement rate, and I do believe its capabilities will continue growing exponentially.

In particular, GPT-2 to GPT-4 spans an increase from 'well read toddler' to 'average high school student' in just a few years, while simultaneously the computational cost of training less capable models goes down similarly.

Also worth noting: the article claims Stripe, another huge money raiser, had an obviously useful product. gdb, sometime-CTO of stripe and its fourth employee, is now president of OpenAI. And, most of all, the author doesn't remember how nonobvious Stripe's utility was in its early days, even in the tech scene: there were established ways to take people's money and it wasn't clear why Stripe had an offering worth switching to.

For an alternate take, I think https://situational-awareness.ai provides a well reasoned argument for the current status of AI innovation and growth rate, and addresses all of the points here on a general (though not OpenAI specific) way.

This seems very much the beginning of the situation predicted by Aschenbrenner in [1], where the AI labs eventually will be fully part of the national security apparatus. Fascinating to see if the other major AI labs also add ex-military folks to their directors or whether this is unique to OpenAI.

Or conceivably his experience is genuinely relevant and unrelated to US national security going forward, completely unrelated to the governmental apparatus and not a sign of the times.

[1] situational-awareness.ai

Mourning Google 3 years ago

* How one retires at 25 when working at Google which is way past IPO and the 100x return on stock option which is only possible at the earliest stage?

levels.fyi reports a L4 averages $270k/yr at Google. Can sock away a whole lot of that pretty fast.

Tomatoe flavors are (in addition to variety) extremely sensitive to nutrients and growing condition. I've had Barrys Crazy Cherry be one of the best flavors ever one year, rich and lowacid and textured and sweet, and absolute watery cardboard the next year - from the same seed batch on a semipro scale.

Very cool! Have definitely thought about this for mine, have never actually gotten past looking around and seeing nobody makes them yet. It'd be amazing to throw some bluetooth on there and be able to flash different patterns, or to throw a fullblown mini screen on it...

I wonder how hard it would be to make a set of large-gauge lobe jewelry with a screen in it. Perhaps 1/2" or 3/4" would be doable?

A thought re sales and sizing, though: industrials are usually sold in quarter-inch increments and most people buy 1-2.5" from what I understand, so it should be doable to make them to sell.