shmatt

Except a sudden dilution usually tanks the stock by the exact % its diluting

So GME dilutes by 20%, stock price immediately goes down by 20%. its not some infinite money hack

The lenders get their money back via management fees. Pretty much only the consumers and the employees get screwed over

Home owns are owned by people, not the home itself. If someone fails to pay a loan, their own credit score will be impacted

For these PE loans, its the new company that takes on the debt, not the buyer. Essentially any broke person can "afford" any trillion dollar company this way

eBay is dying, new competitors are being created constantly, and the big ones like Poshmark are getting more North American buyers and sellers. eBay has barely grown since their post covid slump

Maybe eBay survives as an international site but even at that point, with $20B in debt this will just follow the regular PE playbook of shutting down after many layoffs and pivots

The entire concept of, "I have $1,000 in the bank, im going to buy a $10,000 company, but the debt will be on the companies name, not mine" needs to pass. Can you imagine if the mortgage was owned by our home, not ourselves. And we could stop paying it without any personal consequences

If you want to buy a $50B company, you should pay $50B (loans are fine, but not putting the new company in debt)

Sam, Dario, and Sundar have the opportunity to create one of the funniest on call rotations in history

You had interviews scheduled longer than 45 minutes?

if you've ever been through a Meta loop (and their method is to cast an extremely wide net, so chances are you have), you've seen how inefficient their loop can be for long term success

6-7 38* minute interviews, while the interviewee is trying to squeeze in showcasing their skills and experience, the interviewer is obsessed with figuring out a rigid set of pre-determined "signals"

Once these candidates actually start work, their success in the team is a complete coinflip

* 38 minutes = 45 minute scheduled - 2 minute intro - 5 minute saved for candidate questions at the end

Labubus peaking and falling doesnt really say much about scarcity and trends. Labubu is made by a public company, who's stock skyrocketed, and essentially decided to go all in and mass produce to meet the popularity

thats one option. But other companies sometimes choose to keep the scarcity and secrecy for years, even decades, and if they play their cards right it keeps working

Labubus fall is more about its makers decision to increase sales numbers instead of keeping them flat and generating more and more and more hype

Hermes can sell a $15,000 Birkin to everyone, im sure they can figure out the supply chain aspects if they really wanted to. and within a month everyone that wanted one would have one and sales would drop. Hermes will have a spike in sales, followed by a drop

Instead they force you to play years long games with their sales staff to get an opportunity to spend $15,000. And decades later people still opt in to spending thousands of dollars on plates and scarves hoping one day they will be offered one

This is just as true about a $40 Supreme, or Aime Leon Dore T-shirt, than it is for a $15,000 handbag. If you keep the scarcity going just right, it lasts much longer

Also made in Japan

This actually works well the other way around.

When sales are still growing YoY (like the post covid market), but prices are up 30% or 40%, you understand your customer is still willing to pay the higher price

Its similar to a McDonalds or Starbucks situation where you just keep increasing prices dramatically until you get a first quarter of lower than expected sales, then you start adapting downwards

Most corporations still haven't hit that limit, see streaming companies increasing prices every few months, they still haven't hit the point where profits decrease YoY. When they do the streaming prices start decreasing

a company with 800 million weekly active users, and only losing $10B-$15B before implementing ads - which IMO is coming fast and soon to the LLM world - i would never calculate a 90% chance their shares end up at $0 before an exit option

This is the easiest money and best relationship JPM could imagine

This is literally the reason behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Debt keeps your cap table untouched, its very tempting at certain stages

Can you imagine Twitter/Reddit clients if the APIs were still free in the age of LLMs

In a way this is probably the future state - 1000 different clients for 1000 different people, each fully customized to their taste

At least from what I noticed - Junie from Jetbrains was the first to use a very high quality to do list, and it quickly became my favorite

I haven't used it since it became paid, but back then Junie was slow and thoughtful, while Cursor was constantly re-writing files that worked fine, and Claude was somewhere in the middle

IIRC status pages drive customer compensation for downtime. Updating it is basically signing the check for their biggest customers, in most similar companies you need a very senior executive to approve the update

On the other side of this, Firebase probably doesn't have money at stake making the update

We sort of are able to recognize Nobel-worthy breakthroughs

One of the many definitions I have for AGI is being able to create the proofs for the 2030, 2050, 2100, etc Nobel Prizes, today

A sillier one I like is that AGI would output a correct proof that P ≠ NP on day 1

If we're making comparisons, its more like someone selling a $10,000 course on how to be a millionaire

Not directly from OpenAI - but people in the industry is advertising how these advanced models can replace employees, yet they keep on going on hiring tears (including OpenAI). Lets see the first company to stand behind their models, and replace 50% of their existing headcount with agents. That to me would be a sign these things are going to replace peoples jobs. Until I see that, if OpenAI can't figure out how to replace humans with models, then no one will

I mean could you imagine if todays announcement was - the chatgpt.com webdev team has been laid off, and all new features and fixes will be complete by Codex CLI + o4-mini. That means they believe in the product theyre advertising. Until they do something like that, theyll keep on trusting those human engineers and try selling other people on the dream

Im old enough to remember the mystery and hype before o*/o1/strawberry that was supposed to be essentially AGI. We had serious news outlets write about senior people at OpenAI quitting because o1 was SkyNet

Now we're up to o4, AGI is still not even in near site (depending on your definition, I know). And OpenAI is up to about 5000 employees. I'd think even before AGI a new model would be able to cover for at least 4500 of those employees being fired, is that not the case?

Junie has been amazing for me, completely replaced my payments for Claude Code and Cursor. And it was free (until today). It's the least aggressive agent i've used, no complete re-writes or even close, And is able to achieve about 95% of what I ask of it

The only downside - which might be fixed in the newest release - is that it completely forgets context between messages - even in the same message window. But that feels like both cost cutting and easy to fix

My biggest issues with Claude Code and Cursor for what its worth:

Claude Code: Price, plus when it doesnt get things right, within a few messages it ALWAYS just creates a new file entry point with some demo console.logs that do nothing but show messages, and claims to have succeeded in what I asked

Cursor: Will break some functionality in my web application while fixing or creating others, about 80% of the time

We publicly know about tools like Pegasus and competitors Predator, Hermit and I would confidently assume hundreds of other tools that dont publicly advertise themselves. (they all might be using the same handful of 0days for all we know)

There are multiple public price lists for 0days, Crowdfense currently has iOS full Zero Click Full Chain listed as $5m-$7m

And thats a long way to say - thats correct, its insecure. For the price of $7m any adverse of the US (or friendly country, who cares) can read all these government messages (who knows how many more Signal groups exist without the Atlantic editor)

That would be the cheapest way to get US confidential information in the history of spy agencies. The NSA budget is $10B per year

The assumption of anyone should be - everything in my iPhone and Android phone can be read for $7m. The conversations im having in front of my iPhone can be recorded for $7m. Then the only question left is - is the information worth more than that

If the answer is yes, assume your phone is compromised and only talk near it / message using it, information you understand will become public

Regardless, I can imagine how rage inducing it is for the Apple CEO to use Siri, then immediately after use ChatGPT Advanced Voice mode. Its like what Siri should be, regardless if this much or that much people will use it.

If Apple made a voice mode as advance as ChatGPT, and no one used it, then you can throw away Siri all together (and i'd assume Apple has the data that shows people actually use the Siri)

yes, every 8200 founder i know already has the next product ready to launch in alpha the day after the time limit on their previous acquisition runs out

10 Billion Dollars / 50% more value for the employees stock is a big deal though. I know this might be unheard of but I think the CEO understood the value and wanted to end up with a deal that made even later hires a life changing sum

There were a lot of haters on HN and elsewhere when he turned down $22B, let’s see others demand 50% higher valuation in front of the alphabet board and actually get it. He literally just believed in the product

I mean even now this thread is slowly filling up with conspiracy theories on how they agreed to 50% MORE money only because they’re about to crash. Come on…

They wanted a respectful offer from Google, they didn’t get one, now they got one. The fact the companies kept talking after the last round of press shows that there is substance in the product

Imagine you just smeared Google in the global media, and they call you the next day trying to get back together

Maybe someone smarter than me can explain - how both Biden and Trump can hint or announce they wont enforce the law. Signed laws upheld by the Supreme Court can be filtered out by the President? News to me.

You'd probably have to define agents first. What large / mega caps call agents is LLM + RAG + API Calls to read data and trigger jobs. And there are plenty of those online

I dont know the reasoning behind this comment, but YC isn't a charity. The investment was made with the hopes of making 100x return without customers paying fees. Obviously there are other cashflows in play

This would explain only $10M in AUM within 3 months. Id guess just the commenters on this thread hold 10x that in etfs and funds

If a big bank launched this it would have $1B in AUM within less than an hour

in the beginning i was agitated by Concise and would move it back manually. But then I actually tried it, I asked for SQL and it gave me back SQL and 1-2 sentences at most

Regular mode gives SQL and entire paragraphs before and after it. Not even helpful paragraphs, just rambling about nothing and suggesting what my next prompt should be

Now I love concise mode, it doesn't skimp on the meat, just the fluff. Now my problem is, concise only shows up during load. Right now I can't choose it even if i wanted to

they can try to justify it all they want, using these apis still breaks multiple federal laws

i noted this in a previous thread with them, to which they replied if its your data you can access it which ever way you like. Which is like saying i can hack into my bankers computer remotely to view my account balance. Which is still illegal.

Using unapproved apis is unauthorized access to a computer or network, illegal in the US at least, which ever way you want to try and look at it

Remember both Plaid and Aaron Swartz did this, it can end if very different ways. Obviously the government can pick and choose who to send to jail, but that’s a risk

Time to start selling my "probabilistic syllable generators are not intelligence" t shirts