HN user

samsonradu

1,592 karma

radusamson[at]ymail.com

Techie & armchair economist

Posts24
Comments519
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www.newstatesman.com 1y ago

Ending the Consultancy Cult

samsonradu
2pts1
www.bloomberg.com 5y ago

Global house price boom becomes a dilemma for central banks

samsonradu
2pts0
europa.eu 5y ago

PM²: The Open Project Management Methodology Developed by the EU Commission

samsonradu
4pts0
www.bloomberg.com 5y ago

Europe Unveils New ‘Bauhaus’ Plan for Mass Building Renovations

samsonradu
2pts1
www.cnbc.com 6y ago

Tesla reports fourth straight quarter of profits

samsonradu
4pts1
www.bleepingcomputer.com 6y ago

CAM4 adult cam site exposes 11M emails, private chats

samsonradu
3pts0
www.nytimes.com 6y ago

Berkshire Hathaway Lost $49.7B in First Quarter Stung by Coronavirus

samsonradu
6pts2
www.cnn.com 6y ago

British American Tobacco is trying to make a coronavirus vaccine

samsonradu
1pts0
www.cnbc.com 6y ago

Venture firm Sequoia sounding alarm about economy again as coronavirus spreads

samsonradu
3pts0
www.explaintrade.com 6y ago

First Day as a WTO Delegate

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2pts0
www.tesla.com 6y ago

Autopilot AI

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3pts0
blog.daniel-ruf.de 6y ago

Binary planting and arbitrary file (over)write vulnerabilities in NPM/pnpm/yarn

samsonradu
2pts0
news.sky.com 6y ago

Rescue hopes fade as Thomas Cook slides towards collapse

samsonradu
3pts0
www.bloomberg.com 6y ago

Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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395pts634
www.bloomberg.com 7y ago

Tinder Bypasses Google Play, Joining Revolt Against App Store Fee

samsonradu
333pts239
www.reuters.com 7y ago

Deutsche Bank to cut 18,000 jobs in 7.4B euro overhaul

samsonradu
3pts0
www.reuters.com 7y ago

Google suspends some business with Huawei

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466pts481
www.reuters.com 7y ago

Uber prices blockbuster IPO conservatively to raise $8.1B

samsonradu
44pts85
www.swissinfo.ch 8y ago

Voters give clear thumbs up for reform of Swiss gambling law

samsonradu
1pts0
motherboard.vice.com 9y ago

Hackers Are Trading Hundreds of Thousands of xHamster Porn Account Details

samsonradu
27pts21
venturebeat.com 9y ago

PayPal payments and notifications are coming to Facebook Messenger

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3pts1
www.cnbc.com 10y ago

Musk expects an Apple car by 2020, fears one company's AI use

samsonradu
2pts0
billmoyers.com 10y ago

After Living in Norway, America Feels Backward

samsonradu
6pts0
www.yiiframework.com 11y ago

Yii 2.0 RC is released

samsonradu
3pts0

But will they be good enough? That’s a question that can only be answered after many years in a project’s lifecycle.

Not sure about allowing for more control, what happens when a complex/exotic issue that an AI is not able to solve arises? The bosses will have to pay a premium to whatever expert is left to address the problem.

Right, this reminds me of the threads around here on teleworking vs working in-office.

Once someone points out that they like going to the office because they get to socialize with co-workers, the replies typically sound like ‘don’t care, I’m not paid to socialize but to do my job’

While I understand the context can vary, it always struck me as an anti-social behavior.

1:10 is a little harsh, quite far from the norm. From my experience body shops subcontracting freelancers pay 80-90% of the daily rate (BENELUX area)

One thing worth mentioning for EU’s IT industry is that there are large sectors like government which need IT services but can only work with contractors as hiring is not legally possible or extremely tedious. This means contractors get access to a larger market.

Indeed I believe this is the blocking problem. I've been asking questions about EU legislation and it keeps answering BS and then apologizing:

Me: When was the last consolidation of Directive 2013/34/EU?

GPT: Directive 2013/34/EU, also known as the Annual Accounts Directive, was last consolidated on November 19, 2019. The consolidation process involves collecting all the amendments and updates to the directive and incorporating them into a single, updated version of the directive. ...

Me: Are you sure about the date of November 19, 2019? I could not find the consolidation on the EU official journal.

GPT: I apologize for the error. Upon further research, it appears that Directive 2013/34/EU has not been consolidated since it was originally adopted in 2013. Directive 2013/34/EU, also known as the Annual Accounts Directive,...

Me: Can you give me a list of the dates it was amended?

GPT:

- April 15, 2014: Directive 2014/56/EU amended Directive 2013/34/EU to clarify and supplement certain provisions regarding the preparation and publication of annual accounts and consolidated accounts.

- June 17, 2014: Directive 2014/65/EU amended Directive 2013/34/EU to introduce new rules on the provision of investment services and the performance of investment activities...

Me: I think you're wrong. Delegated Directive 2014/71/EU amends Directive 2011/65/EU.

GPT: I apologize for the error in my previous response. You are correct that Delegated Directive 2014/71/EU amends Directive 2011/65/EU, which is also known as the RoHS Directive.

It never gets it right. See https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32... for the correct data.

I guess society is not optimized for max productivity. As a group, society makes many resource allocation mistakes and (hopefully) corrects them later on.

Fe. society might have been better off investing in nuclear energy in the past 30 years, yet it did not and it s starting to look as a mistake.

Circumstances play a role too. My opinion is that if it had not been for the pandemic and the economic anomalies that happened way fewer people would have paid attention to crypto.

How does this actually benefit anyone?

There’s real benefit when we consider the amount of man-hours spent the past years on trying to reinvent finance, with little success so far.

These (smart) people can use their time and skills towards more productive stuff.

In Romania it varies, but you get a better deal (small discount or get a parking spot, better orientation etc.) when you pay down 20-40% of the price before construction starts so many buyers go for it.

Waiting until the construction is finished usually means many units are sold (the good ones).

It also depends on the builder’s reputation of course, if it’s a big name they can charge more in advance.

IMO it sucks a bit for the buyer as delays are quite often and hard to attack in court. It also attracts speculators who sign the pre-contract just to sell for a profit when the units are delivered.

I didn't paint it as a disaster scenario. Having no emergency funds doesn't mean one will starve.

Just to give some examples of a recession being worse that one expects:

  - I might need to sell my 4-bedroom house and move into a smaller house because I can't afford mortgage;

  - I might need to skip vacations this year because I got a pay cut;

  - I have to sell my car and use public transport because I need money and gas is too expensive anyway;
IMO these are situations people are not generally anticipating or prepared for.

I made pessimistic assertions of the people's ability in general to estimate relative security.

I hold the belief that the LONG term future will be good because capital will be allocated better.

Do not see the conflict between these 2 statements. Also I was 17 in 2007, not sure if it's called ignorance but I didn't understand much of the economic environment at the time.

Yes, my 'statistics' were implied. I've always seen HN as a place where people can write their opinions even if they're not backed by official statistics. This is not the St. Louis FED website. My opinion is that recessions are worse than people expect because if they weren't people would see right through them and keep the money flowing (spending/investing).

I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words.

No problem if you disagree, it would be nice if you elaborate your point though. What exactly do you expect from a recession? What does your data say?

I'd also like to point out that Economics is not really an exact science, even with a ton of data at hand the predictions that economists make are wrong quite often. Specially during the past 2-3 years predictions have been quite bad - fiscal/monetary stimulus doesn't add much to inflation, if it does it will be transitory etc. That's one of the reasons we're in this mess.

That sounds a bit rude, but I'll try to answer anyway. No, I don't have the statistics at hand but I think we can agree that a lot of people go through financial hardship during a recession - basically what a recession means.

What part of my comment do you disagree with exactly? That people, in general, overestimate their financial security and capacity to overcome recessions?

I used the word ‘statistically’ to underline the fact that it will not happen to everyone, and specially not to you in particular.

Meanwhile you hold a belief like, "the future will be good because capital will be allocated better"

Yes

I used the word ‘statistically’ to underline the fact that it will not happen to everyone, and specially not to the commenter in particular.

Too young to understand what happened in the 2008 GFC but I doubt the 'feeling prepared' part works like this. First of all, the recessions tend to last longer than most people expect/plan for. Statistically, it will turn out their 'secure' jobs will be less 'secure' than expected. Meanwhile their emergency funds will start shrinking (slowly at first, then all at once) due to loss of purchasing power & eventual job loss.

However, I'm optimistic on the long term because I think only recessions can correct the (massive) mis-allocation of capital that we experienced the past decade due to ultra-low interest rates.