samr71

It's not something you need to worry about.

If we get the Singularity, it's overwhelmingly likely Jesus will return concurrently.

They're gonna go public and the market cap will be at ~$300B within a year or two

Gary I respect you - will do!

I have only a resume to convince them. I have job experience at major companies, with examples of what I've built when there, personal projects I've made, a github link, a great GPA from a good school.

And I know similar Junior-mid people in the same boat. We can all do Fizzbuzz, we've all built things, and somehow we're not getting interviews, but people that can't do Fizzbuzz are.

Do thousands of incompetents also machine-gun apply to, say, mechanical engineering, accounting, marketing, HR, or finance gigs? Is it just tech?

Something isn't adding up.

Garry Marcus constantly repeats the line that "deep learning has hit a wall!1!" - he was saying this pre-ChatGPT even! It's very easy to dunk on him for this.

That said, his willingness to push back against orthodoxy means he's occasionally right. Scaling really has seemed to plateau since GPT-3.5, Hallucinations are still a problem that are perhaps unsolvable under the current paradigm, LLMs do seem to have problems with things far outside their training data.

Basically, while listening to Gary Marcus, you will hear a lot of nonsense, it will probably give you a better picture of reality if you can sort the wheat from the chaff. Listening to only Sam Altman, or other AI Hypelords, you'll think the Singularity is right around the corner. Listen to Gary Marcus, you won't.

Sam Altman has been substantially more correct on average than Gary Marcus, but I believe Marcus is right that the Singularity narrative is bogus.

Do we have different definitions of "marginally qualified"? Idk, I feel I'm a decent engineer - I can certainly do whatever leetcode medium they throw at me, as much as this counts of anything - and can actually code, but I still get maybe 1 callback per 50 applications.

Does "marginally qualified" mean "Ivy League Competitive Programmer PhD" or something?

Yup. You can check out of FAANG anytime you like, but you can never leave.

Was path dependency for careers always this bad?

Use another AI, of course!

Idk if I'm even being sarcastic here.

Other than fast factorization and linear search, is there anything that Quantum Computing can do? Those do seem important, but limited in scope - is this a solution in search of a problem?

I've heard it could get us very accurate high-detail physics simulations, which has potential, but don't know if that's legit or marketing BS.

Wait so this tech just...doesn't work yet? Like at all?

I agree. The problem now seems to be agency and very long context (which is required for most problems in the real world).

Is that solvable? who knows?

Gary Marcus is cringe and wrong, but it's good to listen to folks who are cringe and wrong, because very occasionally, their willingness to be cringe means they're not wrong about something everyone thinks is true.

I still don't understand - what was HP paying $110M for??

It's just a really really good markdown editor. With some great power user features. Not sure what else to say!

Time and effort does not a substantial point make.

The post was so shockingly hyperbolic I'm surprised they didn't mention the Chinese were also sapping and impurifying our precious bodily fluids.

What should I even say? It was a borderline schizo sinophobic diatribe asserted without evidence.

They only have one option for the next two years: Impeach and remove. GOOD LUCK LMAO

I enjoy seeing HN independently rederive much of NRX thought via this situation.

In unrelated news, anyone see that NYT interview with Yarvin yesterday?

The argument to ban TikTok is for trade reciprocity reasons. Reels and Youtube Shorts are banned there, so we should ban TikTok here. Just like how if Germany banned Fords and Chevys from being sold, we should similarly ban VWs and Audis.

That they say this is for "National Security" gives the game away.

We don't think the Chinese government is any better. We trust neither government.

Banning a media platform in America used by most Americans is controversial? Say it ain't so!

Do people not remember 2020-2021?

They will soon!

Lmao these people are rubes. It's like every other bs "national security" argument.

Expect Yandex, VK, RT, Sputnik, SCMP, etc. to be banned as well under similar pretenses.

"Comrades! We can not let these Western dogs infect our proud Soviet minds with this 'Radio Free Europe'!"

Humans are not singular organisms, we're a colony species. We are evolved for (and thrive in) social groups. These social groups are not just voluntary associations, but are deeply rooted traditions - whether that's based in family, faith, or nation.

The problem with Modernity is that the systems and structures that humans have built to ensure continued human flourishing within these deeply rooted social bonds have grown far beyond their original scale. You can blame capitalism, the state, whatever, it doesn't really matter. What's important is that as the state or capital grow (and they have to, or be killed by others which do), they must necessarily tear down the old order; debride the old traditions which hinder its continued growth.

The end-state of this, which we can see best in places like East Asia, or California, is society in which humans are interchangeable chess pieces. People are atomized from any received community or tradition. Thus, reproduction is viewed not as a natural stage of life — an essential component in the ordered tradition in which they live their life — but as an object of luxury consumption. Very luxury! Which is why people in these regions tend to stick to one kid, maybe two (and if you walk around Seoul, you'll see plenty of dogs in strollers: much cheaper!)

In societies which haven't yet reached that end state, we see the same effect as the forces of Modernity inexorably creep in: religion wanes, tradition falters, birthrates fall. Be it Salt Lake or Suzhou, Tehran or Tokyo, we see this pattern in every place wherever Modernity is made manifest.

So true. There's also the imminent return of Jesus Christ and the subsequent rapture to worry about. Kids have so much on their plate these days...

I deny a drinking age is necessary. From what it sounds like, the kids should be out there drinking more!

If he was willing to work with the rules and norms of the markets they want to enter, they'd sell even fewer cars. If they had to deal with the same regulations and IP laws as China, they'd sell more.

We're just gonna have UBI

He is right, technofeudalism is the future. However, I think this will end up be being seen as a good thing, and history will ultimately look back at the transition as being as obviously good as Monarchy -> Democracy.

So this should be it for trying to regulate stable diffusion type tech, right? If these models and their inference infra can be shrunk down to be runnable on a PS2, it doesn't seem like it's possible to stop this tech without a totalitarian surveillance state (and barely even then!).

This is your brain on Yudd. No, nothing will happen.