robhunter

I was today years old when I learned that.

Fellow Canadian here - I think the suggestion that restrictions were tied to hospital capacity is a bit off. Restrictions were largely political - driven extensively by polling - and changed frequently with minimal or nonexistent reasoning.

Here in Ontario, the McKinsey-driven "Science Table" frequently referenced hospital capacity in their reports, but their modelling often ended up being off by orders of magnitude.

While I concur that preventable deaths are unfortunate, I don't think there's evidence to suggest that most - all? - of the restrictions put in place had any noticeable impact on preventable deaths from Covid.

If anything, those restrictions very much enabled other deaths - from mental health challenges, isolation, depression, substance abuse, delayed medical screening - that very much were preventable.

While we don't have a full picture yet, it's telling that excess mortality remains heavily elevated even though most of the population has had Covid and been vaccinated.

What data is there to suggest that going to hockey games was "high risk behaviour"?

I enjoyed Invisibilia, but it seemed like every episode ether directly or indirectly just had to touch on - or directly focus on! - how terrible Trump is/was.

I don’t particularly love Trump either, but it would also be nice to be able to listen to an NPR podcast without hearing about him on a regular basis.

Great email from Jack, but I have to wonder about the strike price of any options issued 6-12 months ago - they're likely underwater at this point, and may still be even 3 years from now when the exercise window closes. Not much anything Jack can do (I think?), but I worry there may be individual employees paying out of pocket for equity that is not worth what it was when originally granted.

Can you give some examples of Asian norms?

Differentiating between a hypotheses and facts

Having transparent, open, equity-based discussions about costs & benefits

Frequent, honest, humble admitting of mistakes

As I mentioned in another comment, the President of the United States literally said that if you take the vaccine, you won't get Covid, verbatim.

To your broader point - I think skepticism about the efficacy of the Covid vaccine is a very different (and rapidly evolving) thing than traditional anti-vaxx rhetoric.

If you don't think public trust has declined - why did fewer than 50% of people who got 2 doses go on to get a booster? What changed for them?

What are those attitudes and behaviors, exactly?

The president of the United States literally said "You're not going to get Covid if you've had these vaccinations" - https://youtu.be/VArXfQU--LA?t=21

It's likely the vaccines reduced the spread of the virus temporarily, but it certainly wasn't very long-lasting. The efficacy waned quickly, even against the original strains/Alpha/Delta - take a look at case rates in Israel (first heavily vaccinated country) through mid-late 2021 (before Omicron).

What would you consider to be "taking an insane risk WRT Covid" ?

No, it's probably that the public was lead to believe the vaccines eliminated or materially & permanently reduced transmission of the virus.

With significantly more constrained supply, demand for 1st doses was materially higher for every other age group

For instance, 5-11 year olds were up to 15% at about the same period of time after the vaccines were made available to that age group - https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/an-upda...

15% vs. 2% is a pretty substantial drop in just ~6 months, no?

Boosters have been available for nearly a year; vaccines for 5-11's for ~6 months.

I think the booster rate is a reasonable sign that trust in "the science" has been lost - why do you think such a large % of people who initially "followed the science" (and got 2 doses) chose not to "follow the science" and get a booster? (Again, keeping in mind boosters have been widely available since late 2021)

I'm not sure the public - at least in North America - has much of an appetite for any more Covid vaccines. In the US:

- Only about 2% of kids under 5 have had a 1st dose since they were introduced nearly a month ago

- Only 30% of the 5-11 year old population has had 2 doses

- < 50% of people w/2 doses went on to get a booster

So much damage has been done to public trust - "You will not get Covid if you get the vaccine; the vaccine eliminates the spread of the disease; the vaccine is more effective than natural immunity; healthy 18 year old males need a booster to go to school" - that I think it will be a real uphill climb to get more buy-in, even if the actual underlying product is more effective.

I believe this was settled in the case of Hamlin vs. McGill, New Mexico, 2004

By that definition, anyone experiencing chronic illness symptoms "following" (said another way, "after") a Covid infection has "Long Covid" - even if Covid had nothing to do with those chronic illness symptoms developing or continuing.

I think we need a better definition.

Founders personally selling

Can't outsource this or even hire for it in the early days

Has to be the founders

The data released by public health here in Ontario suggests that 2-doses has no impact at all on transmission, while boosters - which 5-11's aren't eligible for - reduce transmission against Omicron by about 40% for about 6-8 weeks.

While vaccines should be available to any 5-11 year old child whose parents want them, the idea that they help in keeping schools open doesn't seem at all logical.

Plenty still in place in Canada

I'd love to agree with you, but having engaged with local school board trustees on a number of tangential issues, I'm pessimistic. I think there's a lot of people who have permanent scar tissue as a result of the last two years, and aren't likely to ever go back to normal.

Sure, but to the second point, the vaccines also don't materially reduce transmission

Generally in Canada, rates are only fixed for a certain term - typically 5 years.

Where are you located?

This is not accurate. Playgrounds were closed in Ontario - where the author of the piece teaches - until June 2020, and then again in April 2021.

How is the universal masking working out for Japan lately?

We have a clear picture of what schools would look like without the myriad of restrictions we have in Ontario - the Scandinavian countries.

No masking of young children. Minimal masking of older children, or teachers. No quadmesters. No banning of assemblies, or proms, or extra curriculars.

Your guess is not grounded in the data we are seeing from dozens of other countries.

The most convincing data I've seen is from Spain (https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/cult-mas...)

They masked 6+ year olds and did not mask anyone under 6 in school.

You'd expect higher rates of Covid in the 5 year olds than the 6 year olds.

In fact, it was the exact opposite - rate of spread was perfectly correlated with age. Masks showed no impact.

There's also interesting data from North Dakota (https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1470072066380419072).

This is a great dataset because it controls for a lot of variables - it's two school districts in the same county; one optional and one mandatory. The mandatory masking county consistently has had higher rates of Covid.

Where are you getting a 10% fatality rate from?

Wearing a mask in school - or not wearing a mask in school - does nothing to impact the spread of the virus.