I agree with the central point that coding agents are sticky. We're unlikely to go back to a word where humans are writing the vast majority of code themselves. When I think about whether AI is over-hyped, I return to the fact that even if AI progress stalled tomorrow, the abilities of today's AI still haven't saturated our world.
I'm more skeptical that IDEs will be dominant a few years from now. It's certainly possible. But I also find it plausible that AI continues to do more and more software development work, and humans less and less.
the tokens are already starting to come less cheap
It may be true that frontier models have become more expensive at times (there are counter-examples though). But the stronger trend is the cost of running a model with fixed capabilities falling over time. That can't continue forever, of course. But I don't expect the fundamental costs to rise. Are you expecting providers to significantly increase their margins?