rainworld

tempted to respond in kind

Has nothing to do with it.

It's basic human nature.

No it’s the nature of a proxy war, the nature of a gambler with no post-war future, the nature of hubristic technologists with software for brains.

Results e.g.: https://x.com/andrii_sybiha/status/2079998734637658585

The firing of Fedorov should tell you something about how well this latest gambit/escalation is working. And about the chasm between PR and reality. Syrskyi knew where this is going. And he knew what the AFU are in dire need of: men, not robots.

This year, so far and among other things, we’ve had an illegal war against Iran, an illegal blockade against Cuba, hundreds of civilians murdered in the Caribbean, the murder of a head of state, the abduction of another. As well as the continued support for Zionist genociding. No meaningful protest from Western regimes, Western media, and most of the enthusiasts here. Might makes right is the whole of the law—as long as it’s the West‘s.

But they dutifully support those who do, materially and diplomatically. Carrying significant political cost, internally as well as externally.

More from Ukrainian public broadcasting: https://suspilne.media/kropyvnytskiy/1340118-smerti-vid-pnev...

This is about forcibly drafted men (particularly those with additional issues like addiction) who get sent on assaults with low rates of success and high chances of death (or serve in similarly dangerous roles). Very different from the glamour raids they publish on social media. Russians do these assaults too, of course. Because, for the most part, that’s how territory is taken in this war.

Women in the AFU are volunteers and serve different roles.

Polemical original title distracts from the content. Full article. Quoting the author:

Ukrainian liberal media writes about it, but only in Ukrainian. Not for western consumption.

Self-fulfilling prophecies need prophets.

Any reasonable leadership would have cut their losses yet here we are.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKxeuY7bMAEwZ30.png Indeed.

The country that’s getting 55% of its state budget from the EU isn’t a proxy. Not to mention the munitions, the weapons, the training, and above all the access to the US’ trillion dollar ISR and satcom network.

Spade? That’s a shovel drenched in blood.

It’s conceivable that Russia could force the West to back out of the proxy war. But then they’d get proliferation in Europe, Taiwan, South Korea, and other places. And Usrael would very likely use nukes against Iranian missile cities. (Conversely, first use against Iran would give Russia license etc.) Apart from general global instability and uncertainty this might unleash.

So, it’s not hard to see why they haven’t—so far. And why they are pursuing their (slow and costly, sure) conventional military, economical, and demographic long-term neutering of Ukraine. And let’s not forget the enormous economic/budgetary cost to the EU.

Also, Russia retains a number of ways to escalate inside of Ukraine: bridges, dams, depopulation of frontline cities. China could finally abandon their stance of being mostly neutral.

The problem is that Ukraine/West keep escalating and the day when Russia’s calculus changes may yet come.

the standard "modern" war

For the US and friends is terrorizing the enemy, his forces, his civilian population into giving up. Is feeding a civil war until he crumbles.

bomb the living shit out of anything armoured

That’s absolutely not what’s missing in Ukraine.

and then push forward with your own armour.

And then, as soon as you assemble let alone move in the open, you get wrecked. No one has an easy answer for this. The answer is what we’re already seeing: attrition.

Iran

Iran prevailed in an highly asymmetric conflict by successfully attriting US/Israeli air defenses and surviving their attacks, depleting their arsenals. Which was their goal, not “levelling Tel Aviv”—however much they would have liked to.

Finally, what Israel is facing in Lebanon right now is but a pale imitation of what’s going on in Ukraine. But bad enough. One can imagine what just a couple days of Ukraine-level losses would do to them, militarily and politically. No matter their air superiority.

The classic HN trope of a non-rebuttal presented as rebuttal. And you conveniently left out the link in the sentence: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/31/congress/ma...

It’s true, “MAGA KY” has Trump’s name slapped on. Like the Zionist war againt Iran. Which you clearly support.

I'm all ears.

You’re clearly not.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/17/massie-aipac-record... It literally was. And wait till you find out you find out who Epstein et al. were working for.

You, as many do, forgot to mention the root cause: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/us-iran-war-request-israel...

The meek recent Senate protest means nothing. If the elites didn't want the war, the House and the Senate would have 2/3rd majorities to stop it.

Yesterday’s AIPAC-driven ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie should tell you why no one is trying to stop this and who these “elites” you speak of answer to.

The IRGC wants the blockade for self-preservation among its own population to show it is resisting "The West".

They are not showing off. They are actively and successfully resisting “The West”. Which could only sustain 5 weeks of active hostilities, got nowhere, hurt its position in the ME severely, but still cannot concede. Which brings us back to the root cause.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-repatriates-bodies-of-1-...

1000 Ukrainians for 38 Russians. Such exchanges with similarly lopsided ratios happen every couple weeks.

The notion that the bombings constituted an informed political decision intended to forestall an otherwise unavoidable invasion, and that Japan wasn’t ready to surrender is a complete retcon.[0] But a great example of how well Americans control the narrative—even eight decades after the fact. If anyone else did them they would be condemned as Great Crimes of History.

[0]: Truman didn’t order Hiroshima, and didn’t even know about Nagasaki. He did stop them after that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Maxwell#Distribution_of...

It’s just the latest implementation of a winning formula.

Did that language imping on the interests of America’s ruling elites, its security apparatus, or the interests of a certain entity in the eastern Mediterranean? No? Then we’re talking about entirely different things.

The “opposition” that oversaw the Gaza genocide.

No, they are, in the words of German Chancellor Merz, perfectly happy to let Trump do their “dirty work.” All the better if it blows up in his face.

In fact, that’s the whole reason why Trump is in office and not in prison. Because after October 2023 Zionists don’t accept “no” for an answer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernity

I'm no fan of the party in power in the US, but I can campaign and speak out against them. I can raise money to oppose them. I can band together with like minded individuals to protest.

You can. Just not in any way that matters. And you won’t. Because that takes organization and all existing organizations that matter are captured by the system and novel ones would quickly be.

Perfect example: The US just launched a disastrous and illegal (both in their own and the UN system) war at the behest of a foreign power/influential minority against the will of its people and against its geopolitical interest. And the “opposition” does less than nothing. There is little anti-war protest and none of consquence.

Compare it with 2003 and earlier wars: The American public has been all but neutralized as a political force. Not that it could do much even then.

That's superior to unilateral oppression.

You prefer the illusion of power.

Those who triumphed over “Russia” (also a tell) had anything but immaculate hearts.

The good will be martyred; the Holy Father will have much to suffer; various nations will be annihilated.

Rings a bell. Errors are spreading but “Russian” they are not.

The date of the attempted assassination, 13 May 1981, was the 64th anniversary of the first apparition of the Virgin Mary to the children at Fátima.

Do I have to spell it out.

British colonialism

So the Palestinians and Arabs thought a hundred years ago. It served them badly.

It’s not that US/UK and others don’t get anything out of the relationship, as you note. But the arrows have been mostly pointing the other way for a long time. Trump and his background, as well as Epstein/Mandelson/McSweeney/Labour are just the latest, blatant examples of how this works.

Maybe WE can't imagine taking losses like this, but in Russia they seem more than willing.

WE are happily enabling Ukrainians to take such losses.

seemingly carelessly.

They are doing what works—which evidently it does, however ugly and cynical it looks. And Ukrainians do the same when they try to recapture. This is the face of attritional warfare in the age of drones and under pervasive surveillance. But you’re probably right—WE could not sustain such for long. One hopes.

now exceed sustainable recruitment and replacement rates,

That’s on even days. On odd days these people will tell you that the Russia army has been all but rebuilt and is about to invade the Baltics.

Meanwhile, battlefield casualties favor Ukraine by a 2.5- or 2-to-1 ratio.

Russia is 4–5 times bigger. So, even if these numbers were true, they would be bad news. Same with materiel—just check Oryx. For extra credit, look at the trends of losses. Far from good enough and getting worse.

And, in fact, often sharing this “accelerationist” motive.

A much better and more informative piece:

https://open.substack.com/pub/eventsinukraine/p/zoomer-schoo...

You did not understand the point of the quoted post at all and you’re turning the matter on its head.

For the US and its friends, the UN system and international law have always been a tool. Used when beneficial, circumvented when necessary.

Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Russia...

Yes, the US decades-long lawfare and warfare against these countries in various domains is a great examples of the above.

The multipolar world is truly new and terrifying

Now, even the USA invades foreign countries!

(https://x.com/EventsUkraine/status/2007431899107758263)

And what makes you think Russia didn't pay a price for that?

That wasn’t the question and you’re putting words in my mouth.

look at Syria - they literally removed Russia from the middle east.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c201p2dd6r4o

They were warm words from two men seeking a good working relationship.

Russia wants continued access to its Tartous naval port and Hmeimim military airbase on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

Sharaa suggested he would allow this, saying Syria would "respect all agreements concluded throughout the great history" of their bilateral relations.

In turn, he wants help to consolidate his power in Syria, secure its borders and rescue a parlous economy with access to Russian energy and investment.

Plus ça change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoo...

Including but not limited to: A Turkish supply convoy, reportedly carrying small arms, machine-guns and ammunition, was bombed by what is believed to have been Russian airstrikes in the northwestern town of Azaz, in north-western Syria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Russian_Air_Force_Al-Bab_...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes