pgodzin

Are you sure you're not the one seeing the survivorship bias? Something that is 10% likely to happen ends up switching to the opposite outcome at the very end 1/10 times. There are thousands of prediction markets up at any given time, so there are going to be plenty of examples of unlikely events happening.

But there is plenty of research on how well-calibrated they are. For example, https://polymarket.com/accuracy

Vimeo's stock lost 90% of value after its IPO. Plenty of investors and businessmen paid the price.

There are much better ways to tell if a prediction market is well calibrated than a single anecdote.

And if it works so poorly, there's a lot of easy money to be made.

last I checked the Figma MCP is read-only -- "look at this figma design and implement it"

The fact is the federal government seems to grow and spend without any limit or regard to logic. It doesn't -feel- like much has ever been done to address it.

In terms of "growth", the number of federal civilian government employees has basically never been lower as a percentage of the population.

https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/styles/report_580_h...

15% increase in productivity and increasing is extremely worth the hype, that's massive

Also a good interview in Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-sam-altman-interview

The author is certainly doing his part fighting against capital (letters)

sure, just wanted to point that out since someone who didn't read the article could have easily assumed that was an annual number, as in the US we are used to 2ish percent annual inflation being the target.

Just to be clear, that's monthly inflation, not annual. Annual is still 193%

Is it not possible for "proper" management, rather than mismanagement, to result in downsizing a bloated org that over-hired, or lowering compensation in an employee-friendly hiring environment where a bunch of senior employees where laid off across the industry?

Both of those goals seek to lower costs, and goes counter to the interests of the union without being considered "mismanagement"

https://transitcosts.com/

Here's the one that some crypto folks were harking on earlier as the "true" inflation rate: https://truflation.com/dashboard

Spoiler: 2.26%

Compare the reaction to Bob Lee's death from someone who was murdered by someone he knew vs the lack of reaction to the most likely way any of us are killed.

Traffic violence has become completely normalized, just the cost of doing business. You can constantly speed through school zones with no repercussions, especially if you cover your plate.

If you're looking to kill someone and get away with it, do it in your car.

The buses will be more reliable when they aren't stuck in traffic caused by congestion.

Tire wear also contributes the most to PM2.5 pollution, and EVs are heavier and produce more wear

What's being punished is the fraud, not the losses. We do not want to incentivize companies putting it all on red with customer funds they don't have a right to touch as long as they win the bet, we want to punish them for even trying, regardless of whether it happened to work this time.

Hochul was trying to negotiate an amendment to the bill to limit it to people making under $250k, but the reason it died is because they couldn't agree on the language of what's included (bonuses, equity, etc)

This is so dysfunctional. Does the other half of the company quit now? How can this board remain in place, but who can replace them?

But what percentage of employees, even in unskilled jobs, are being paid minimum wage in each of those locations? The floor may be misleading.

The valuable service is allowing the sale of merch within the venue, the table is free.

Yes, it would make sure that development tanks across the US, just like you want it to happen in Hawaii.

Should the FDA be immune from suits for the invisible graveyard of people who would otherwise be saved by drugs that take years longer than they should to get to market if at all?

If we introduced regular cars for the first time in this political environment, we'd never allow them on the roads. Our existing cars on the road severely impede emergency vehicles, through regular stand-still traffic, double-parking without anyone in the car, parking in front of hydrants, etc.

We have learned to ignore and work around those issues, but it's hard to do the same with novel issues that we give people the power to block and delay.

No one is saying the current level of government waste is optimal and not worth the cost to eliminate. Just that if you have eliminated 99%, the extra 1% may not be worth it.

The alternative is likely not being able to work with the business at all due to their risk profile and chargeback rates.

Part of the narrative was how they would all have guns too.

It ignored the fact that most of those employees were actually customer service representatives, and you can see this year the huge increase in number of tax filers who were able to actually speak to someone from the IRS on the phone.

same time frame, their fiscal years just start at different times, so one's Q1 is the other's Q3

That's a 25% annual rate of return, where can I find that with my 100k?

worth reading Matt Levine's explanation of this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-31/matt-l...