HN user

nussbi

-2 karma

late twenty-something livin' la vida loca

Posts2
Comments10
View on HN

whether or not the they publish this information - if it exists indeed - will it really matter?

I mean; why bother with a future that does not exist yet? If it gets out and holds to be genuine information then some fascist group (sect, terrorists, whoever) develops it and releases it into the wild... What will happen? WE DON'T KNOW. It could kill half of humanity but also only a few people, we can't say.

All we know for sure is that there may be hugely harmful virus data in some lab. That's all there is to say, future will tell what's gonna happen. Why bother with a future we can't predict?

Here are my thoughts on your concerns:

1) There will always be exchanges even though some governments will outlaw these. I don't see a big problem in getting money into bitcoins but I guess it will be uquite hard to get money out of it. Let's assume you have 10'000 bitcoins with a value of 1 million USD. Who's gonna have the liquidity to get your money out if there are hundreds of exchanges and no big one as they will likely be the primary target of law enforcement in the future? I see the problem more in getting out the money and especially the cost that comes along should bitcoins be outlawed.

2) As interest grows, nodes will grow as well and the system itelf will be able to handle the transactions well.

3) This is also my main concern, bitcoin as every other currency can become a victim of speculation. At the moment this is harder to accomplish though as the marketplaces have not evolved yet to offer tools such as derivatives, options, futures etc. Nevertheless, speculation is a threat to bitcoin and the psychological factor is hard to predict. The best protection against it would be a high volatility (fast in - fast out) which also opens the door to speculative agents.

I see bitcoin succeed only if it gets mass adopted and this is not very likely in the near future. The concept works well on paper but as there is no tangible good involved, mass adoption is unlikely. The savior could be the black markets. Should they decide to even test out the system with a small percentage of their fortune, bitcoin will grow exponentionally in value and provide a very nice investment return for early-adopters.

just my two cents...

There is no such thing as limited liquidity, it's all based on the perception of value a currency has!

Since currencies are no longer backed by gold, a national bank, f.e. the FED, can print as much money as they want. However, an excess of available money of course leads to its devaluation on the markets.

Nevertheless, there will never be a huge availability of VC money. There are just more easy ways to profit than high risk investments.

And no, no one is gonna back just every idea, that would be silly and lead to nothing.

I think access is also based on perception only. If you think an idea will work and if you believe it can, you'll invest. No one can be sure, it's still a little bit of gambling. As an entrepreneur, you gotta know how to sell your idea, perception counts...

In my opinion, the User Acquisition Cost looks pretty high, but I can't be 100% sure as scaling is q question of monetization. I guess it all depends on how you monetize, i.e. what percentage of user become paying customers.

The men/women ratio looks promising though to make it a success!