noodlescb

"A billion people use the ChatGPT"

lol uh source? even if you generously count my dad trying it out once out of curiosity in response to the news or w/e that doesn't seem true.

If it is, it's a horrible ad. My main takeaway is that all of them were god awful at image generation and Fable was 20x more expensive and still awful.

It's so bizarrely run that it's hard to decide what counts as a "comparable outfit"? It's a Space company crammed together with several deeply unprofitable and embarrassing investment companies the founder bought as a part of a transparent grift to cover his mistakes and his only argument is a vague promise of "data centers in space", after over a decade of promising similarly ambitious things that have never happened.

Compared to the other AI companies? It's got even less revenue and product/branding decisions that have it fundamentally incompatible with any of the customers that would result in it becoming a leader.

Compared to other companies of similar revenue? That would be like... uh... Carnival Cruises? lol the fact that it has a valuation where it does is only due to corruption and politics. Oh, sorry Carnival Cruises had actual revenue last year, SpaceX was -$1.9B.

Maybe I'm just in my media bubble, care to share the experts out there explaining how it's a great company whose valuation makes any sort of sense?

It's hilarious how bad image generation is. I just tried this out and I gave it two actual logos, a full design language spec, and three screenshots of the actual application and it spat out three absolutely awful images, none of which had the same logo as the one I sent.

After 18+ months of this, LLMs are incredible for getting rid of the work I hated most: Updating JIRA tickets, tedious little cleanup jobs, refactoring, etc. They are great at finding infosec issues.

They are also GREAT at writing code based on standards and patterns established by an actual human engineers. They are STILL trash at anything meaningfully complex from the ground up. I will go through hours of planning where I have to kick the hell out of its plans in ways that I don't think someone without a ton of real world experience could do. Even in the fancy new Fable models that remains true. They are not creative and any engineering worth doing requires creativity.

Even that is kind tbh. The company is so poorly run and the leader so controversial that it makes it irresponsible to build anything serious that relies on their products. Other than the rocket part of the business, everything else under the SpaceX umbrella is a nonstarter.

Are you implying that a tech billionaire, who moved to a private South American compound, who looks like a man that microdoses ayahuasca daily, might just a rich kid tinkering to stay relevant without the incentive or context to actually BE relevant anymore?

I originally was passionate about Slack simply because it was "IRC but with modern quality of life improvements". Ever since they got fucked by MSFT and sold out to Salesforce, it's basically been dead in the water and the only changes have largely made it worse.

Interesting idea. I think the "multiplayer mode for AI development" bit resonates somewhat. Biggest problem is that I do think most companies have a ton of key contributors that find git/code intimidating, so part of me thinks the real answer here will be stuff like Surfboard, Town, etc. that can work with git AND the work tools in a more user friendly, browser-first way.

I love how consistently none of us even vaguely consider Grok an actual player

I guess? Maybe I'm alone here but I don't feel like Fable is particularly more useful than Sonnet most of the time. I feel like the LLMs are good enough for the majority of uses and the hyper expensive premium ones are way into diminishing returns. At this point with Kimi being as good as it is, if they jack up the price any more I'll just go open source.

Blog post from the creator: https://www.john-rush.com/posts/agent-streams-20260101.html

Not to be too ageist but the author appears to be a Stanford college student? Interesting thoughts but also feels kind of naive in that it is using a lot of assumption of a logical market, which is kind of adorable in a world where investing has devolved into a hype gambling market where Tesla has become a meme stock.

Yeah I basically have Claude commit via git regularly and the majority of the other features described her can be done via git. I agree it's a neat idea for someone though.

Except these tech billionaires lie the most of the time. This is still the "grow at any cost" phase, so I don't even genuinely believe he has a confident understanding of how or at what point anything will be profitable. This just strikes me as the best answer he has at the moment.