nod

These IHME predictions are actually based on deaths, not on tests. Also, please look at the wide error bars on the original data source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Of course there are still a lot of variables - one of the better criticisms is that it assumes that states lock down with the same strength, just at different dates. But it's the presentation of this Axios piece that is dangerous here: It strips out all the uncertainty estimates and presents exact numbers as if they were precise.

Go look at https://nextstrain.org/ncov if you want to see all of the mutation paths! Wonderful site/org with contributors doing great work around the globe sending in sequences.

Could you please explain what's happening here then, in terms of how Google is reading our Signal messages to provide "smart" replies?

Why is it no longer a "clear history" feature?

This is not a fully correct conclusion. I feel a need to call out the conflation of "non-hierarchical" with "structurelessness"/"without a formal structure".

There are at least 3 things that the typical org hierarchy provides:

1. The dominance hierarchy, the power structure that says who can give orders to (and/or fire people for refusal to comply with orders) whom.

2. Decision-making governance. There has to be a way to get decisions made, including what people work on.

3. Conflict resolution. How does conflict get managed and escalated.

It is not true that the necessary opposite of hierarchy is anarchy - you can't just destroy the org chart and expect nothing to replace it. The org chart typically provides all 3, but the proponents of flat/innovative org structures are usually trying to dismantle just #1 the dominance hierarchy. I totally agree that it "doesn't work" if replacements for #2 and #3 aren't implemented at the same time. Approaches like Holacracy/Sociocracy are actually quite structured! They attempt to make decision-making and conflict-resolution explicit and effective, even while trying to remove the "violence inherent in the system" of bosses/bossing.

Congratulations to https://twitter.com/sehurlburt ! ...who is also a font of interesting and insightful business advice and life/growth thoughts

Aw... (Stopping by later and seeing this at the top)

SMDH at myself, too, for giving in to the temptation to just blat out a quick frustration despite knowing this is exactly the kind of nerd-sniping that can get us commentariat more worked up than the actual issue.

Sorry for the noise, folks. I mean, the meta isn't total noise, but remember to spend focus on the actual climate change too, shall we?

SMDH at how they see fit to include, in the second-to-last paragraph, a scientist calling the words "tipping point" inaccurate and irresponsible... and then still made it their headline.

I don't think anyone would say an apology is sufficient response. It's only a necessary component of a full response. But if a company screws up the apology right off the bat (as so many companies do), you can tell that things are not going to turn out well for them. So it's pretty interesting that so many companies (and individuals) write such bad apologies, so much so that it's pretty rare to see an apology even as good as this one.

Will we be able to modify the plasticity of our neurons with future drugs?

For those to whom this article clicks and resonates: at what stage of ego/mental development do you think this perspective unlocks? I perceive this complexity now, but the me of just three years ago wouldn't have. In the past year I have wrestled with a complex software quality cultural transformation... But I don't think that's a reliable growth trigger, as people can stay stuck in linear thinking even as it fails. Is it solely psychological development into the self-transforming mind? Or, what would make this mindset "gettable" by more people?

This author just does such amazing work, consistently. A joy to read.

Got one in the Kickstarter and my kids love it. Great for the 7-10 age range with adult partnership. The comic story is even decent! I imagine 12+ could get pretty far on their own.

Meta thought: is this article wrong? (Partly tongue-in-cheek, partly not)

"make things fair" is a strange way to put "other countries hurt their consumers more, so we should too"

They did: theoldreader.com

(porting my comment over from my dupe)

Corporations are optimization processes. Advertising is an optimization process. Social networks are. Smartphone addiction. Political polarization. Television, mobile games, and most forms of entertainment. This prevalence, and the fact that it's not EVIL doing it but just amoral goal-directed processes, seems to me to be the key to recognizing, fighting back, and fixing society.

We have to figure out some way to fight for our human values, against these optimization processes. I don't think Stross has (or claims to have) a strong answer there... any ideas?

Haha... (at the cleverness of your description of church/religion)

Secular church is definitely one approach, one option to try to fight fire with fire. I've seen compelling analysis tying the increase in intense political tribalization to filling the void left by the general decline in societal religiosity.

Every cause wants to be a cult. (To quote, I think, eyudkowsky)

Corporations are optimization processes. Advertising is an optimization process. Social networks are. Smartphone addiction. Political polarization. Television, mobile games, and most forms of entertainment.

This prevalence, and the fact that it's not EVIL doing it but just amoral goal-directed processes, seems to me to be the key to recognizing, fighting back, and fixing society.

We have to figure out some way to fight for our human values, against these optimization processes. I don't think Stross has (or claims to have) a strong answer there... any ideas?

Meta note: I'm submitting this again, and don't think of this as a dupe, because I think the transcript/blog form is much more engaging than a video (and by accounts on the video thread, the transcript may be the better form here even if one likes videos).

Previous discussion on video: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16032643

This is not relevant to the subject of the article.

Well, the three visualizations in the article all use Tableau Public, and you can download them yourself and play with the data.

"So, the thing that is hard to do, that I try to do, is to come back and think that everyone is trying to do the right thing, which I believe is the right place to start. If someone’s doing something that doesn’t make sense, there’s a reason for it and we need to understand their reasons. We make our best progress when our efforts are to be empathetic and understanding of what’s going on in other’s lives."

So, so true. I'll also recommend his book Creativity, Inc. - what works for Pixar might not all be directly translatable for the software industry, but there are some good lessons and experience (and entertainment) in there.

Been there, bought the mug: http://www.nullisland.com

Of course unbounded doesn't work either... When does the company move on?

I like to ask, "When would you like to get back to us?" and then have a very reasonable conversation about any expectations or constraints.

Seattle Public Schools, for one, has taken this to heart and rearranged the schedule for next year. Elementaries now get the early starts, and the high schools will start at 9:35 AM.

If we were hypothetically "too big" for TeamCity, with scaling difficulties all over, do you have (or have heard) any recommendations? I hear the biggest companies all roll their own, but is there anything between TeamCity and Google-scale?

Maybe this will help: You mention "ramification"s, but I think the GP post is trying to say that if people fulfill their responsibility, then you don't need consequences - that you don't need to focus on enforcement then.

Is this an heir to Myst?

Here's their site: http://nullisland.com/