This is the story of the Nitrogen Trap. It is not primarily a story about war, though war is its catalyst. It is not primarily a story about oil, though Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel on March 12. It is not primarily a story about commodity markets, though fertilizer equities have surged roughly forty percent in fourteen trading days. It is the story of a civilization that optimized every node of its food production system for cost efficiency while concentrating existential dependencies in chokepoints it cannot control, inputs it does not stockpile, and insurance markets it does not regulate
While everyone focuses on oil, other things also stopped flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the ripple effects will only become clear in a few months