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Prism 6 months ago

This is effectively standard across the board.

Prism 6 months ago

Pay to review is common in Econ and Finance.

Very approximately, (1) developing AGI is dangerous, (2) we might be very close to it (think several years rather than several decades).

TBH It surprises me how controversial (1) is. The crux really is (2) ...

I did a little spelunking some time ago reacting to the same urge. Tropical geometry appears to be where the math talk is at.

Just dropping the reference here, I don't grok the literature.

I have met several people telling weaker versions of that or similar claims. I believe them. A more accessible example is to intuit fairly early what computational irreducibility is. Typically one doesn't develop the language to be precise about these ideas until much later. That Wolfram had the correct language available at that age doesn't strike me as unlikely.

Personally, I find it just takes the willingness to actively separate his exposition of the concepts (whether novel or not) from his self-evaluation.

It helps me to keep in mind his own admission of being quite egocentric (something like: "After all I am part of the club of those that named their company after themselves").

I also find myself intuitively in the camp of your alternative theory.

Nevertheless I have an off the cuff comment to your question: Dune genetic memory is outside the bounds of our most basic understanding of inheritance because we do not know of any obvious mechanism to encode those memories into gamets in "one shot" (from direct experience to immediate offspring). Compare this with a very long arc over which a gazelle is born with brain initialized so carefully that it can learn to walk instantly, effectively having something that really looks like "genetic memory" of how to walk.

My confused ramblings aside, this to me suggests that it is at least plausible that such commonality among apes and homo exists. Now, providing evidence for it is quite a different ball game ...

Tricky. In an environment where it takes time to collect information about competitiveness, updating of expectations is slow (and costly, because it is hard to be rational about this), there is a lot of randomness, and one's own competitiveness might be typically decreasing ... the slope of the expectation update might be not steep enough.