marianatom

If china is in a great depression, then so is the rest of the world

And how did you arrive at this conclusion? US seems fine right now with record low unemployment, strong dollar, and increased factory activities. While detachment from China is already in progress, with China's export slumped 7.5% in May, which is atrocious since that number is compared from a year ago when China was in lockdown. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7po.... Fact is, the world is moving away from China, and it seems to be doing ok, but China is suffering from double digit decline in real estate/export/retail.

The anti-china nonsense hasn't changed since the early 2000s with gordon chang

Yes, discount everything logical because of one pundit who is too early. Nevermind most of the business leaders this year have mentioned moving business/factories out of China as a long term plan.

Watch the money

No, watch all the multinationals pull factories out of China. watch the increasing panic from normal Chinese citizen online video with respect to foreclosure/job loss/unemployment. then watch the money.

1.) China's unemployment rate is no where near comparable to europe's. China considers one employed if one has worked at least ONE hour a week. or if their family have land to farm.

2.) There's nothing comparable to what's happening to China right now, except for the Russia sanctions, where an entire economic engine (export, 25% of GDP) is being ripped out or shut down, by companies pulling factories out of China

3.) Blackstone and IMF have been plenty wrong before. also, there's no chance they don't at least use some part of the data from the Chinese's National office of statistics.

China IS in a Great Depression. The government is making the numbers seem a little bit better, but with 21% official youth unemployment rate - definitely higher since netizens have found that only 20% of this year's graduate has secured jobs, and 50% - 70% reduction in real estate listing prices, when real estate is 30% of China's economy and how local governments mostly gets funded, we will see retroactively that China entered its Great Depression in 2022.

China's PPP should reduce in half this year. It has seen massive layoffs from every industry (average 22% decline in revenue across all industries). It has seen 50% reduction in wages, even in stable positions like government offices. It has seen unpaid wages for anywhere from a few months up to a year!!

This is reinforced by 50% in price cuts in real estate listings in tier 1 cities, 10X increase in real estate inventory this year, and 90% physical retail decline

China’s Latest Source of Unrest: Unpaid ‘Zero Covid’ Workers https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/asia/china-covid-pr...

China's Industrial profits in the January-March period declined 21.4% from a year earlier https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/china-s-i...

Meanwhile, China's solar industry is in rapid decline, dropping 40% in market cap y/y, due to overcapacity, falling price margins, bans on goods from China's Xinjiang region, and increased non-Chinese solar growth - US's solar industry seem to be on the rise. China's solar industry should follow similar trends as its electronics industry, with massive pullout of factories to other countries, and eventually only mostly servicing China's internal markets.

Plunging Solar Stocks Fly in Face of Booming Panel Demand https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/solar-sto...

U.S. solar installations to fall 23% this year due to China goods ban -report https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-installatio...

You can erase them

that's not how economics works. if that's the case, you would not see the Chinese governments (federal and local) doing desperate things to collect more revenues like:

- China considers measures to encourage re-employment of retirees https://hrmasia.com/china-considers-measures-to-encourage-re...

- issuing massive traffic/parking tickets a year after, to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars, to commercial and normal drivers

- banks preventing normal withdrawals of money. often, deceased's children can't withdraw their parents savings, even with all the official documentations

- government entities delaying several months of owed salaries to its employees https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/5/11/chinas-cash-stra...

There are so many wrongs with your statements that I don't know where to start. I'll just tackle one of them.

"build a high speed rail network", implying that US is failing there. China is suffering from a $1 TRILLION debt for its rails https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/C..., while ridership collapses https://japan-forward.com/weak-demand-for-chinas-high-speed-.... Cities in China are suffering from $23 TRILLION insolvent debt and inability to raise more https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-05-21/china-s-2.... I certainly hope US doesn't suffer the same fate.

Harvard Business Review will do a case study on Disney on how to best avoid tackling a new customer segment and piss off/insult your core users at the same time

lol, how presumptuous. I have visited China in 2007, before it turned authoritarian/dictatorship. I would not visit China again to support the dictatorship. I can visit any number of democratic countries like Taiwan.

I feel for those who don't get that they are supporting evil.

Btw, speaking of evil, China isn't giving up yet (Xi still have 10-20 years to live. free organ transplants from young Chinese, you know. high ranking politicians get them for free). It is producing destroyers at a massive rate, and will exceed # of destroyers that US has by 2040. Combined with the millions of disposable unemployed single young men, and there's still a chance that Taiwan would overwhelmed. and if Taiwan falls, the same strategy can be used to conquer Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia.

here's the thing, humanity got lucky. there was a nonzero chance that china and the dictatorships could have triumphed. if China didn't botch the chance to overtake US in 2008 with a capable dictator. if China got its hands on many advanced US military technologies. if Russia didn't botch the Ukraine invasion. if covid didn't have a vaccine, except one that China developed.

I'm sure most of us are aware of the gulags that China ran in 2022, in the most prosperous city like Shanghai, with welded doors, lack of food, arbitrary killing of pets, moving their own citizens against their wills to camps or cells with no running water and unsanitary conditions. with cries in tall buildings from families in the middle of night for food. If. you haven't seen these things, go watch it online. Imagine if somehow China succeeded, and that's most of humanity's fate.

here's the thing, humanity got lucky. there was a nonzero chance that china and the dictatorships could have triumphed. if China didn't botch the chance to overtake US in 2008 with a capable dictator. if China got its hands on many advanced US military technologies. if Russia didn't botch the Ukraine invasion. if covid didn't have a vaccine, except one that China developed.

I'm sure most of us are aware of the gulags that China ran in 2022, in the most prosperous city like Shanghai, with welded doors, lack of food, arbitrary killing of pets, moving their own citizens against their wills to camps or cells with no running water and unsanitary conditions. with cries in tall buildings from families in the middle of night for food. If. you haven't seen these things, go watch it online. Imagine if somehow China succeeded, and that's all of humanity's fate.

I think you misread my point. My point regarding NAFTA was that US did not actually lose a portion of its economic output when the manufacturing declined. The old factory workers switched to a more profitable job, thus the income increase. In fact, the country was then joined by migrant workers from Mexico because of NAFTA taking away their farming jobs in Mexico. Thus US's economy thrived in 90s.

But when China lose most of the foreign manufacturing jobs, it lost a significant portion of its economic output. Because now these workers just went back home to countryside to farm.

You can brush any counterpoints away you want by mentioning pundits who are too early in their prediction.

Sure, let's talk about broader context and macro trends. unless something big changes, these macro trends won't go away:

- alignment of dictatorship vs free countries. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran vs US, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India, Australia, Philippines, Canada.

- dictatorship is losing. China is propping up all the dictators around the world, and its losing that power

- China demographics collapse

- China's rising and insolvent local government debts, which can no longer generate income by selling land. because China has too many buildings - 6 billion by last count. and demographics collapse. and lack of jobs

- Tech sanctions on China. China's inability to catch up on tech.

which indicates China's stagnation and decline for the next 10-20 years.

Actually US and China is disengaging, and we can already see what would happen if trade were to stop tomorrow, by what's happening now.

China June 2023: Massive reverse migration by laborers back to countryside, Shanghai population down 135k compared to 2021 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3215126/s.... Physical retail closures up to 80%. Entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Real estate prices dropping 30-50% in tier 1 cities. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing having 50k+ used homes for sale in span of 2 months. Shipping containers pile up 7 stories in every port https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3210870/c....

US June 2023: not much.

One government sponsored number, vs multiple numbers pointing to China's economic decline, which multinationals check in order to gauge the real health of China's economy. Multinationals know the real numbers, which is why they're all leaving.

What other numbers don't lie? 20.4% youth unemployment rate https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/record-youth-unemployment-st.... 22% drop in daily home sales in 2023 vs 2022 https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-april-prop.... Yuan losing 7% value against dollar https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/investing/china-covid-yuan-us.... and on and on.

China does seem to have clear eyes with it comes to world politics

You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. One belt and one road is now considered a failure with Italy, the most prominent member, dropping out of it this year. Most of the countries that took on the debt are unable to pay it back, and China has had to forgive a lot of the loans recently. And no one has aligned US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, India, Australia, Nato quite like China in recent years. The most recent focus in G7 was squarely on China.

NAFTA

with respect to NAFTA, US manufacturing only consisted of 15% US economy in 1994 https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m..., whereas Chinese manufacturing consisted 30% of China's economy today. Also, the difference is, the laborers in US manufacturing moved to other higher paying jobs, as a result, average income went from 25k to 30k in 2000. Whereas what we're seeing now with Chinese laborers is that they're moving back home to countryside to farm (< $1 a day)

Yeah and that's not the crazy part. There's a 50% drop in marriage rate in 2023 compared to 2022.

Meanwhile in China:

- exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7po...

- profit tumbles 18% in April https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-industrial-profits...

- chip progress stagnating. Oppo chip design unit completely shut down https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/12/oppo-chip-disbands-phone-c.... Japan stops shipping semiconductor equipments to China https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Japan-c.... China is still stuck on 14nm chips.

- multinationals moving supply chains out of China faster than ever. Tesla asks Chinese suppliers to build plants in Mexico (June '23) https://cnevpost.com/2023/06/08/tesla-asks-chinese-suppliers.... BYD make EVs in Vietnam (May '23) https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chines.... On top of older news this year that Apple wants Foxconn to move out 50% of its production lines from China by 2025. And Dell's production completely out of China by 2027.

China is no longer the "world's factory". It will stagnate for 10+ years, similar to Japan's lost decades, but with worser birth rate than Japan today. It reported 8M babies in 2022, low that was last reached in 1940s.

We've never seen a large portion (25%+) of a large modern economy vanish in a span of a few years. (factories moving out, which decreases downstream economic activities such as real estate and retail).

According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., car manufacturing profits is down 41%. non-metal products manufacturing profits is down 39%. chemicals manufacturing profits is down 56%. electronics manufacturing profits is down 71%!! In fact, all businesses have dropped 22% in profit. Not to mention the 1M+ SMB that failed in the last 2 years.

1 in 5 Young Chinese Is Jobless, and Millions More Are About to Graduate https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/business/china-youth-unem...

China’s shipping containers pile up at overcrowded port as overseas orders dwindle https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3210870/c...

China to raise retirement age to deal with aging population https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-a...

Guizhou Province may become the first provincial government to go bankrupt in China. https://twitter.com/tankman2002/status/1646905359184044032?l...

Related note: American Patriots nailed Putin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The world has changed https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/17/american-patriot...

subtext: Xi Jinping will be annoyed by this as well

My quote was to prove China is still maintaining that ties with Russia are "unlimited". I don't care what lies China is telling Europe :)

4/23/23: China's cooperation with Europe and other nations is "endless" just as its ties with Russia are "unlimited", China's envoy to the European Union said https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-cooperation-with-europe...

After narrowly lagging behind China in 2022, Mexico officially became the US’s largest trading partner at the start of 2023, according to new US Census Bureau figures. https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/may-2023/mexico-overtakes-chi...

China should fall pretty quickly behind Europe as well this year. China's economy has fallen off the cliff - 80% decrease in foreign orders, 20% official youth unemployment rate, 50% reduction in home prices, 80% decrease in government land sales

China is no longer a partner to US, but a competitor and adversary. To Europe and Japan as well. China made that very clear when they announced unlimited friendship with Russia last year.

It's Russia + China + Iran vs Europe + US + Japan + Taiwan + South Korea + Australia + Canada

You are wrong.

Yuan is still only 3% of global currency reserve, behind dollar (60%) and euro (20%). https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88926. up from 2% in 2017...

China is Russia's ally in the war, and even Russians don't even want yuan - it has been selling renminbi since the beginning of this year https://asiatimes.com/2023/04/rmb-based-trade-hasnt-worked-o....

de-dollarization is mainly happening with China, and it's only because Chinese economy is crashing fast (50% real estate price cut in matter of months, 100k+ housing inventory for sale in major tier 1 cities, 80% factory order decline from foreign companies), and it needs to have access to dollar to pay back its huge debt - 400% debt to gdp, and Guizhou just became the first Chinese province to declare bankruptcy last month.

Yuan will be the dominant currency...

No. Just No.

Yuan is not convertible and volatile. it's only 3% of global currency reserve, behind dollar (60%) and euro (20%) https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88926. Even Russians don't want yuan, Russia has been selling renminbi since the beginning of this year https://asiatimes.com/2023/04/rmb-based-trade-hasnt-worked-o...

Also, China's economy is crashing hard. China is now entering its third year of its own Great Depression, with 30% unemployment rate, 90% unemployment rate for new grads (it's so bad, Guangzhou government just sent 300k youth to countryside for a program), 80% retail collapse (entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen), 50% real estate price collapse. Guizhou is the first province to declare bankruptcy ever.

According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., car manufacturing profits is down 41%. non-metal products manufacturing profits is down 39%. chemicals manufacturing profits is down 56%. electronics manufacturing profits is down 71%!! In fact, all businesses have dropped 22% in profit. Not to mention the 1M+ SMB that failed in the last 2 years.

Apple, dell, hp, lg, Kyocera are all shifting manufacturing out of China. Apple by 50% by 2025, Dell by 2027. It is estimated that China's portion of worldwide phone production will drop from 90% to 50% by 2025, and worldwide laptop production 70% to 30% by 2027.

China's export is never recovering, when 83% of American, the world's biggest consumer segment, have negative views of China https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/pew-china-enemy-04122...

According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., car manufacturing profits is down 41%. non-metal products manufacturing profits is down 39%. chemicals manufacturing profits is down 56%. electronics manufacturing profits is down 71%. In fact, all businesses have dropped 22% in profit.

That's data with existing businesses. It's been reported that within the last 2 years, China has had 1M+ SMB closures.

Go watch unbiased Chinese citizen videos like https://www.youtube.com/@laobaixing-CN, https://www.youtube.com/@China559, https://www.youtube.com/@user-ii2lv3iq9r https://www.youtube.com/@zgbx if you want the truths. But I highly doubt you speak any mandarin, or for that matter, pay any attention to recent events coming out of China. Since otherwise you would know about Apple, dell, hp, lg, Kyocera currently shifting manufacturing out of China. Or how Guizhou just became the first Chinese state to file for bankruptcy. Or how Chinese government just raised retirement age from 60 to 65.

Both Baerbock and Macron are just there to milk China for whatever China has left. They both know China is now entering its third year of its own Great Depression, with 30% unemployment rate (even food delivery jobs are scarce now), 90% unemployment rate for new grads (it's so bad, Guangzhou government just sent 500k youth to countryside for a program), 80% retail collapse (entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen), 50% real estate price collapse, 40% export collapse. CCP can't hide this kind of economic collapse when Germany companies are closely watching the sales figures of cars and luxury goods of its own stores in China.

3/21 Germany's Economy Minister: "We must become less dependent on China" https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/germany-economy-minister...

4/16 Germany backs EU-Indonesia trade pact to curb China reliance https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-backs-eu-i...

You're making money off Americans. Giving some investments to create jobs for Americans make sense. Henry Ford famously overpaid his workers to create demand for his cars https://www.npr.org/2014/01/27/267145552/the-middle-class-to...

"The rules are aimed at weaning the United States off dependence on China for EV battery supply chains and are part of President Joe Biden's effort to make 50% of U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030 EVs or PHEVs."

Japanese and European car manufacturers can just source batteries from somewhere else other than China, then problem solved. Car/electronics manufacturers are already moving out of China at a rapid pace this year anyways. According to the office for national statistics in China, for jan/feb of 2023 http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202303/27/t20230327_38464161..., electronics manufacturing profits is down 71% and car manufacturing profits is down 41.7%, due to slacking demand. Smart to move sourcing early anyways, it looks like China is starting to be confirmed to help Russia militarily https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-is-find...

Actually, it would appear that Chinese EV manufacturers have not much place to go. EV market in China peaked at 2021. With regards to Europe, BYD only sold tens(!!) of cars in Germany in 2023, compared to thousands of Tesla cars sold.