margorczynski

Which is totally insane competition, particularly given how low switching costs

Which is why OAI and Anthropic will most probably push for more governmental control and bans. Without it their whole income model is cooked.

No, he simply extrapolated this idiotic reasoning to its absurd conclusion.

bigoted model

A what? What does this even mean?

By not using them on something political? Why do I care when I'll just use it to generate code?

Still, the clock is ticking. I don't know of any "new" company that would use Oracle instead of e.g. Postgres or would migrate to it. That's probably why they're pretty desperate to jump onto something new before the old source of income fizzles out.

China has most probably already achieved "escape velocity" on the software side. Now if they achieve parity, to some degree at least, on the hardware side with Nvidia it is very possible they'll overtake the US.

Isn't that the case with human "experts"? If you had encounters with doctors, mechanics, etc. you'll know you can get a completely different diagnosis for the same problem which obviously means (in most cases) that the person you thought an expert is wrong.

What is needed are studies that will take a cold look at the actual results because AI seems to be required to be perfect or it is useless. It just needs to be as good as a human for most stuff, but in the long run it will be much better. At least that what extrapolating current reality shows us.

The geopolitical angle of all of this is interesting. Will countries, especially bigger players really just hope they'll get access to something so crucial from the US or China?

Probably the EU could pool together funds to create something competitive as being on the mercy of someone else isn't a pleasant place to be.

And I wouldn't get so used to the open models. Eventually, if they get good enough, the access to them will also get restricted.

Anth/OpenAI simply wanted the government to pull the ladder after them and ban models from China.

Seems it blew in their faces and probably the new frontier models will be available only to a select few. Many people predicted this, only a naive person would believe that access to something with these capabilities would be decided by some dude in California.

The Airbnb isn't just about the cost of homes but also the comfort of people living in them. Would you want to live under an Airbnb? With the constant rotation of people, parties, etc?

I know it might shock many but a lot of people (I would say most) buy a flat to live in it and making it into a pseudo-hotel lower the quality of life at the benefit of the airbnb owner.

The closer to the IPO the more marketing drivel we'll get from both Anth and OpenAI.

If WW2 Japan also had nukes the US would never drop those two. That's the whole idea behind MAD. Probably the only thing that stopped an open conflict between the US and USSR was them being nuclear powers and both sides being scared that eventually push comes to shove.

One thing to remember is that the $200/month subscription is heavily subsidized. It is more to promote use, especially to corporate users that pay for the API token use.

Still I miss when Google was a good information retrieval system

I think a large part of the blame is not on Google but on the websites themselves. The Internet has been enshittified by a gargantuan amount of spam sites and content mills created just to generate clicks and boost SEO.

At least AI offers a way to filter out the noise at the cost of relying on how it was trained and what the creators thought is good data.

Well the fundamental question is does one see the US as a nation or some economic zone/factory where your worth is determined by how much you produce.

In the first case the paid taxes argument is pointless.

Maybe the Chinese are playing the long game by trying to bankrupt the US competition? Because there's no way this is financially viable.

But who'll pay for those ads? Why would I pay Google if it just plops out some LLM answer with maybe my site as a source - which 90%+ of people will ignore as they don't care about it.

Yep. The thing is people (maybe because of our limited scope) just focus on the depth and not the breadth. Because this is a general purpose model - it also has PhD+ knowledge in Physics, Biology, History, etc.

I think we still don't really comprehend how much can be achieved by a single "mind" that has internalized so much knowledge from so many areas.

Wow at the price hike. Still I think in the long run the Chinese will win if they're able to produce hardware comparable to Nvidia.

The availability of open models with such capabilities are based on the goodwill of the Chinese. And that might end eventually, especially that the matter is one decision of Xi and the party.

This is correct but people with too big of an ego or affected too much by Dunning-Kruger) will try to say otherwise even when presented with ample evidence. Instead of a valid response you'll get "skill issue" from people that produce segfaulting code on a regular basis.

Probably because LeCun is from there. But top AI talent needs to be paid top cash and the taxes there are brutal for high earners especially.

I think it is also a matter on how the Meta stock comp works - and that people hired during the slump in stock price became very expensive once it came back up.

There are some short term ones but I doubt this will continue, especially for the more powerful models.

It doesn't look good for Anthropic, especially considering they are burning billions in investor money.

Looks like they lost the mandate of heaven, if Open AI plays it right it might be their end. Add to that the open source models from China.

The other thing is most people don't really care about price per token or whatever but how much it will cost to execute (successfully) a task they want.

It doesn't matter if a model is e.g. 30% cheaper to use than another (token-wise) but I need to burn 2x more tokens to get the same acceptable result.

Codex or the Chinese models

Yeah but they still (at least to public knowledge) do not posses anything that could be called AGI. But as these capabilities increase they'll probably get an offer they can't refuse sooner or later.

I think it is naive to think the government (US or China most probably) will just let some random company control something so powerful and dangerous.

It has been useless for long time when compared to Opus or even something like Kimi. The saving grace was that it was dirt cheap but that doesn't matter if it can't do what I want even after many repeated tries and trying to push it to a correct solution.