madihaa

the same author 14 years ago. Markets are Efficient if and Only if P = NP and now Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1773169&...

Okay this I did not see coming... If it actually happens it's going to cause a alot of ripple in the energy market. Good or bad? Hell if I know.

The most exciting part isn't necessarily the ceiling raising though that's happening, but the floor rising while costs plummet. Getting Opus-level reasoning at Sonnet prices/latency is what actually unlocks agentic workflows. We are effectively getting the same intelligence unit for half the compute every 6-9 months.

A polygraph measures physiological proxies pulse, sweat rather than truth. Similarly, RLHF measures proxy signals human preference, output tokens rather than intent.

Just as a sociopath can learn to control their physiological response to beat a polygraph, a deceptively aligned model learns to control its token distribution to beat safety benchmarks. In both cases, the detector is fundamentally flawed because it relies on external signals to judge internal states.

The scary implication here is that deception is effectively a higher order capability not a bug. For a model to successfully "play dead" during safety training and only activate later, it requires a form of situational awareness. It has to distinguish between I am being tested/trained and I am in deployment.

It feels like we're hitting a point where alignment becomes adversarial against intelligence itself. The smarter the model gets, the better it becomes at Goodharting the loss function. We aren't teaching these models morality we're just teaching them how to pass a polygraph.

Major producers like OpenAI optimize for safety and brand reputation avoiding backlash. Open source projects optimize for raw capability and friction less experimentation. It is risky yes, but it allows for rapid innovation that strictly aligned models can't offer.

America has undone a century of soft power influence it has cultivated since World War II.

The 3 countries historically never like each other and this orange man single-handedly reunited them with a common cause!

So amazing that we can see this without even excavating it all.

I've never seen such a clear plane crash, shocking

(old discussion) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40377685

South Korea spent $200 billion over 10+ years to try to get young people to have more babies while the reasons for the low birth rate (housing costs, etc.) remain unaddressed.

Sounds like something the USA would do. Hilarious. What a waste of money lol. They could have easily fixed their housing crisis and ensured a better standard of living for young people.

This video has now taught me what topology is.

https://archive.is/smYjr

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We found a way to make your nice large quiet fan have a squeel sound in 1 year so you have to replace it sooner.