littleidea

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_product

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic.

15 trillion, in it's secret double life, looks suspiciously like 15,000,000,000,000.

If the constraints must allow for traction to start with 'a single web developer anywhere in the world', then I agree that significantly reduces the markets available.

Energy, computer hardware, medical, pharmaceutical, telcom, these are big markets with big stakes, and these are difficult to enter, even for well funded endeavors.

That being said, the internet is still relatively young and acts as a force multiplier enabling anyone to have far greater reach than they could have even 20 years ago.

Relative market size has remained largely undefined to this point. I think the obvious definition of market is in terms of dollars.

What do you consider a large market? A million dollars? tens of millions? 100s of millions?

We should also define abundance.

In 2011, the US GNP was 15,097,083 million USD. If we just say 1% of that is potentially addressable with a technical solution involving the web, that is still over 100 billion in play just in the US.

I don't know about anyone else, but that seems like abundance.

And that's just in the US.

In 2013, as a web developer anywhere in the world, you have never been in a better position to leverage the global economy.

That feels like an abundance.

Perhaps it just comes down to axiomatic world view. Do you see abundance or scarcity?

Again, I say people should go after the biggest market they feel they have a fighting chance to penetrate. Go big, because you can. Fortune favors the bold.

Disagreeing with people is not an ad hominem.

Nor is being disagreeable for that matter...

I was dismissive and probably impolite. I apologized.

You didn't answer my question, so I'll ask it again, what makes you believe that an MVP will be more salable in a small market?

You say 'regardless of the complexity of the MVP', but that invalidates every point the author was trying to make. Point 1, 2 and 3 in the original article all hinge on the level of effort of the MVP.

Where you worked is not something that changes anything about your position.

I reversed nothing. The author asserts some things that are provably false, then asks 'What are your thoughts? Should your first product be aimed at a small market?'

There is traction because something was built that solves a problem. The size of the market and entrenchment of the incumbents are not the same thing. This person can do everything because the problem and solution are small enough to allow that, not because of the size of the market. Further, attributing causal relationships to the size of the market and the traction is a mistake that leads to sub-optimal strategies.

Those are my thoughts. Do what you will.

My apologies if you were offended, I didn't think that I was particularly aggressive.

Certainly not compared to what is possible...

I think I understood your argument, I just disagree with what you are asserting and your conclusion.

There is plenty of low-hanging fruit in big markets, because it is a proportionally bigger tree.

If you add the constraint that you want to do everything on your own, then the markets and problems you can reasonably approach are smaller, but I still argue that from a return on investment perspective, you should be looking for the largest market opportunity that you understand enough to build.

If you care to discuss in person, I'm on twitter with the same name. @ me and we figure out the best way to facilitate a discussion.

If the goal to stay small and unfunded, I still take the position that you should look for the largest market you can realistically provide solutions for.

A single programmer writing CRUD apps isn't going to become a competitive telco. I'm not saying wade into fights you can't win,just that if you have to decide between two projects, a considerably larger market should be key to the decision.

Thanks for the book recommendation.

What makes you believe that an MVP will be more salable in a small market? I see no model or evidence to support this thinking.

I also believe you are too focused on 'minimal' at the expense of 'viable' in MVP.

If you have relatively a relatively viable product, where would you rather sell? I'll take a big market every time.

If the point is what you say, then why does the original post repeatedly return to the theme of the simplicity of the solution?

I say the person has no understanding of markets because no point being made in the original post is actually about markets, or products for that matter. There is just a list of assertions and assumptions to justify choices that were already made.

If you want to build products for small markets, by all means, go to it.

Your intuition is not entirely correct.

Competition and the size of the market are not always correlated.

The superior strategy is to maximize returns against efforts, not minimize potential for competition.

The essential argument is that a small market provides small returns therefore go after small markets is not the same as proving that the returns are better in proportion to the cost, in time, resources or opportunity.

Most large markets are divided in following a Pareto distribution, which is to say the winners dominate. You don't have a pie divided between competitors, you have most of the pie going to 2-3 players. Be a player.

When you see a large number of 'competitors' in a market, as often as not the market fragmentation is on the buyer side.

Again, I don't buy the small market simplicity argument, and I especially don't buy that small markets offer the best returns for effort. There is an abundance of large markets, many of which are underserved.

If you see an opportunity to squeeze a little market with a CRUD app, by all means, don't let me stop you, but I don't believe that is a superior strategy.

Nothing about what has been built or blogged makes me believe this person really understands products or markets.

The logic of the points that are being made is flawed, starting with repeatedly conflating building a product for a small market with solving a small and simple problem. These are not the same.

In general, solving problems for small markets is just as hard as solving problems for big ones.

My advice is, at the level that you understand what to build to get to market, go after the biggest fastest growing markets you can.

Interesting information that I'm genuinely interested in but the execution and delivery leave me scratching my head.

The operating system and web server graphs make no sense.

mod_ssl? varnish? Makes me question what was asked and who was answering.

I'd also contend pie charts aren't the best way to represent this information, especially in the categories where there are only a small number of responses.

the link isn't just down, the domain is not resolving for me now

I really like the high level concept, but I dislike the poke the mutable state, disregard Demeter, nested if-else style of programming that the warrior api encourages.

Don't take it too harshly, I definitely like what you are trying to do with the service and I'm interested to see how your classes evolve.

The author edited the post since my response. I used the word lifestyle because that was the word he used.

There are a lot of options. Infinite options. There is also a big difference in potential risk and outcomes of those options. There is nothing wrong with approaches to creating lifestyle businesses. In many cases, this can be optimal.

I couldn't disagree more. In this case, being more specific is only going to multiply the gossip and opinion.

There is more than enough data in the google doc to support a discussion.

Furthermore, you now have comments from people who have had the first hand experiences I described. I'm willing to wager they didn't go through the programs I would specifically identify.

I'm not sure what else one could need to have a discussion, but suit yourself.

That is sort of the point, chasing funding can be a huge distraction. If an incubator can't provide significant advantages to doing so, what are they helping with? In some circumstances, maybe something else significant.

I disagree with your second point. There are many opportunities that will not be profitable initially. Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, these are the easy examples to point out, but there is a spectrum. A good advisor will understand the landscape and consider your options and leverage.

I agree there are a lot of problems. Every inefficiency is an opportunity. Insurmountable Opportunity...

I'm pro-profit and pro using every appropriate tool. I'm also pro thinking big and long term.

Sounds like a great opportunity. Rock out.

If the incubator is specifically trying to develop lifestyle business in Chile, win and win.

With the possible reservation that if you truly get to product-market fit and it's a lifestyle business, then maybe you should consider a bigger market, as it is almost always as much work to solve a small problem as it would be to solve a bigger one.

Good luck, and I'd love to hear your story as you make progress

These things are not mutually exclusive.

Most incubators can be ghettos AND there can be too many.

While I partially support the algae bloom theory, I am asserting there are companies that deserve incubation and believe they are, but are in fact not getting good advice nor real opportunity through the program.

There are some things my discretion says should not be made publicly specific.

While everyone is entitled to have different sensibilities, I don't understand why you would refuse to discuss this in the abstract.

I'm not sure what you actually read, but at the end there is a link to this google doc which appears to be the closest thing to publicly available data. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?pli=1&key=0AkkhS...

I have never been through an incubator, but I have been involved in the process of successfully raising venture capital half a dozen times. Further, I have become friends with many other founders and investors. I have friends who have been through different incubators and I always make it a point to get involved with entrepreneurial events and activities whenever I can. Of incubators I have personally observed, some are on that list and some are not.

I have no affinity for any incubator, but there are public numbers and if you want to take the position that on paper right now YC doesn't overshadow everyone else, I'd really like to hear the arguments.

Honestly, I'm not upset so much as underwhelmed and disappointed. It doesn't impact my life or business directly, I just don't like to see good people wasting time and that includes people running these incubators.

If you care to make questions or comments on any point beyond ad hominem commentary, I would do my best to answer in earnest.

I agree that is very valuable, and there are other valuable aspects of the incubator experience that are omitted as well.

This schedule pressure and the support of colleagues can contribute to successfully creating a fundable opportunity.

I'm just saying that results should be the measure. Fundable and funded, and if that's not happening, the incubator is not working. Further, I put that result more on the program than the participants.

a) once popular catch phrase? because of Zed? granted it's hyperbolic and cliche, but most titles are, by design b) If you want to discuss in private, I can give names and numbers. There are real people with real feelings and real money involved. c) you have no idea what you are talking about d) love to see a critique or counterpoints with any substance e) share and share alike

I'm many things, but lazy isn't one.

Defensible position supported with logic.

I might even go a step further an add that in some sense Facebook has already been publicly traded on secondary markets for some time. Fortunes were already made there.

The world will watch this IPO. The trajectory will impact how Web 2.0 is remembered.

I'd love to see someone argue the counterpoint.

looks like a list with no real data for most of them

Rational agents at a Nash Equilibrium.

Those are great questions.

I'm not sure the answer is clear.

What I do know for sure is the current system for paid research and funding is broken on several levels.

The advisor/advisee relationship and the whole idea of PhDs is a medieval system.

There are amazing PhDs doing amazing work. Norvig, Thrun and Ng certainly are, but there are some who have made a career out of publishing recycled variations on marginal insights, while it is increasingly difficult for young PhDs with fresh ideas to even get consideration for grants.

Open vs Closed is orthogonal to paid vs volunteer. Sure there is a lot of unpaid open source work, but a ton of the oss in use was written by people who were paid.

There is also an implication of what it means to develop and claim intellectual property, which I think most people on HN would agree is also somewhat broken in our current system.

I'm not the one with the answers, but I'm definitely going to keep asking questions.

I just want to finish with a Star Trek movie quote someone said the post reminded them of:

Captain Jean-Luc Picard: The economics of the future is somewhat different. You see, money doesn't exist in the 24th century. Lily Sloane: No money? You mean, you don't get paid? Captain Jean-Luc Picard: We work to better ourselves.

tl;dr

"We have a system for evaluating devs, and pay people more for living in NY."

The article has a bunch of words, but doesn't actually say anything about how much you should pay developers. Not sure why there are upvotes.

Summary question for the author: http://bit.ly/aorWMz

1,726 online viewers, breaking for lunch... more to come.

Zed Shaw was great. Next up, Monkeypatching Your Brain

The show is about to start.

I cringe just watching him.

That's not what the article says at all.

The example he gives is the difference between putting money in at 3M or 5M pre and he's not talking about a problem filling up a round.

He's making the claim that 'better' investors won't participate in rounds they feel are over priced. That's a totally different problem than not being able to finish a round. (Not to mention what an unlikely and unsophisticated scenario it is to have the problem that 50K was committed at 10M. I feel sorry for both the investor and the founder. Not sure which is more naive...)

People on the board can definitely make all the difference, and I generally agree with the pricing numbers given the current market.

I just find questioning the founder's judgement on raising at a 3M vs a 5M pre, uhm, questionable.

If you are an investor and you know this guy who might one day be negotiating part of an exit for you isn't going to leverage the market to get a good price now, I question your judgement.