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The risk is the same as what Intel had. There is a group who are pushing them to go bigger and with a resource no limit approach, who have a lot of dollars to push you that way. Follow them and they lead you to a pile of money, but then you risk something like Apple Silicon happening.

The problem was that Intel stopped making things faster and better, and shifted to wearables and mobile chips instead of investing in their hard-tech strategy that had worked for decades.

Yeah honestly I don't get any of the fear-mongering from any side. If access to intelligence and knowledge is scary to you, that's a you problem.

Is it going to change the world? Yes. In more positive ways than negative ways. Websites will continue to get hacked, as they are already getting hacked. People who are afraid of AI are really just afraid of change.

Ironically, Google is the company I'd prefer to have the frontier models.

Anthropic's fear-mongering and marketing is the reason we have these restrictions in the first place.

Despite their virtue signaling, Anthropic is the only major lab that has never released an open weights model, has been caught intentionally nerfing a model after release (Opus 4.6), intentionally and silently degrades performance for suspected competitors and AI researchers, complains incessantly about distillation when everyone is doing it (and after they settled for pirating books), and wants to pull the ladder out from everyone trying to catch up.

They're anti-consumer and only concerned with holding the power themselves. I'm not a fan of Altman, but Anthropic is the worst actor in the space, and I hope they lose.

Even the original idea (if The Social Network is a trustworthy source) was copied -- Zuckerberg just has a complete lack of vision, but is clearly an intelligent operator with good business sense. Jagged intelligence, like an LLM.

What are you willing to give up to be less afraid of all these extremely hypothetical risks? (which in the case of bio/nuclear/chemical is mostly access to controlled materials and capital anyway)

Access to information and knowledge is probably the very last thing I'd be willing to give up, personally.

I think most people would be a lot happier if they were less fearful in general.

We've been hearing about the risks of engineered viruses and homemade superweapons since GPT 3.5, so where are they? We've had abliterated open weights models much stronger than GPT 4 for over a year now.

It's been interesting seeing how OpenAI pops up to counter the threat of AGI being controlled by Google, and then OpenAI and every spinoff company from its employees has become a far larger threat to the public, for different reasons.

As much as it seems like Anthropic's self righteous leadership truly believes in what they're preaching, they've shown themselves to be tied for the worst stewards of this technology. Google actually seems like the best option to me, by far. Anthropic is also the only major lab with no open weights releases.

They'll have burned a lot of goodwill with the community by the time another lab takes the tech lead, which I guarantee will happen.

Zone 5 is usually 1-2 minutes out of a longer 30 minute cardio session for me, I do it as a final sprint. I am not talking about repeated hill sprints where you would get 10+ minutes of zone 5 cardio in a session, which I agree would not be something a normal person should do 4x/week.

From my own experience, it seems like hitting that Zone 5 briefly is a good nervous system reset (overrides any dysfunctional breathing and heart rate effects from long covid); it's less about training the heart, although that's an excellent side effect.

Honestly AI overviews are a pretty good guide, ask about a 3-5 day water fast. I was nervous going into my first one, but now I don't worry about it. The main thing is to drink a lot of water and have 1-3 LMNT electrolyte packs (unflavored, no sugar) per day, depending on how much you're sweating/exercising (which you absolutely can do, especially the first 2 days).

You can expect to feel colder as your body doesn't conserve as much heat, and after ~2 days more lethargic physically, but your mental energy may actually be higher. I don't sleep as well when fasting, so 3 nights is about my limit. That being said, you feel rested on less sleep, because your body is probably producing a lot less waste.

Thanks. Unfortunately, not really, especially where diet is concerned. For example, I saw significant improvement after removing wheat, white rice, red meat, and dairy entirely, which is not something your typical US doctor would suggest. The first doctor I saw wanted to put me on antidepressants.

I also think exercise recommendations are generally too low, especially with respect to high intensity cardio.

There is absolutely truth to this.

I had a long process with this that mostly manifested as exercise intolerance and general inflammation/discomfort, and sleep struggles. I made no progress for 2 years, lost most of my muscle (I had been very active before) and started thinking "is this how it's going to be forever?". After not finding anything promising from traditional medicine or supplements, I finally made some dramatic life changes. I'm fully past it now (with persistent lifestyle changes), but I really had to rethink my relationship with food.

Ended up doing a paleo diet, avoiding stressors (some of which are not obvious like just being on your phone scrolling, bad posture/circulation/sitting for too long), improving sleep hygiene, and ramping up consistent cardio exercise, with an emphasis on getting up to 4x/week zone 5 cardio without triggering intolerance.

Since then I've discovered a lot of other things that are great for overall health, like HRV-reset breathing and long-duration water fasts (around 3 days is optimal for me). I imagine those would have been very helpful if I had tried them earlier. A water fast is a complete metabolic and inflammatory reset of the body, and it's not as hard as you might think.

Hopefully most affected folks have recovered and are living normal lives by now, but if not, there are things you can do! It seems like the more challenging those things are, the more efficacious.

The one that started shaking more and more as the volume got louder sent me. Sometimes you have to give credit where it's due, even when the result is unusable.

My step-brother had this around 40. He's okay now, but it was a terrible process involving surgery, carrying around a bag, and chemo which aged him significantly during treatment (from no gray hair to all gray in a couple years).

You would have never guessed he was an unhealthy guy by looking at him, but I do assume it has something to do with foods we consider normal in the US. I've taken a page out of Bryan Johnson's book and started eating well over 100% of recommended daily fiber intake (easy and enjoyable if you make some chia seed porridge every morning), and I will say my digestion has never been better. Keeping the system clear seems like a sane first line of defense to preventing this kind of thing.

Yes and no. "Last-gen" (like, from 6 months ago) frontier models do still tend to outperform the best open source models. But some models, especially GLM-5, really have captured whatever circuitry drives pattern matching in the models they were trained off of.

I like this benchmark that competes models against one another in competitive environments, which seems like it can't really be gamed: https://gertlabs.com

This seems like one of the best possible use cases for LLMs -- porting old, useful Python/Javascript into faster compiled language code. Something I don't want to do, that requires the type of intelligence that most people agree AI already has (following clear objectives, not needing much creativity or agency).

I don't hate the idea.

But if you think it through, it's intractable. You need to 2x+ the transportation cost of all products (it will cost more to get them back for multiple reasons, including products not being as neatly packaged and often going from many-to-one transportation to many-to-many). Companies also need to double their specializations and adopt recycling processes that will largely be redundant with other companies; you basically make it impossible for small companies to make complicated products. And are we including food products, the majority of trash? It makes a lot more sense to centralize waste repurposing and benefit from economies of scale.

Waste management is already a very profitable industry. Of course, it's wasteful, just burying stuff, and environmentally harmful. But I'm of the opinion that it will soon be economically viable to start mining landfills for different types of enriched materials, and government subsidies could bridge the gap for things that are of greater public interest to recycle.

I've been working on the software side of the technology needed to do this in my spare time for a couple years, waiting for some hardware advancements.

This is consistent with my experience.

I've had great results, and every workout I do consists of an exercise I can do at least 20 reps of for the first set, sometimes going up to 50. I can still gain strength by increasing the weight slowly week by week but maintaining a high level of reps. I don't think it takes longer at the gym -- just do 2 sets per motion instead of the more common 3-5. The breaks in between sets at the gym are the real time sink. Plus, you get lean muscle with high endurance, and virtually no injuries. Last tip: put your phone/music in a locker while you're at the gym if you want to both improve your workout, save time, and practice being more present.

It seems like they fixed the most obvious issue with the last release, where codex would just refuse to do its job... if it seemed difficult or context usage was getting above 60% or so. Good job on the post-training improvements.

The benchmark changes are incredible, but I have yet to notice a difference in my codebases as of yet.

Is there something similar with twice the memory/bandwidth? That's a use case that I would seriously consider to run any frontier open source model locally, at usable speed. 128GB is almost enough.

Not willingly, but it's a lost cause getting AI generated code to avoid it.

Which news sources do you recommend?

It was the only thing to be optimistic about in this administration, but it sure didn't last long. We should all know that this was the last attempt that had a chance of addressing the national debt -- the only other way out is extreme inflation.

Very interesting time to be alive.

At the speeds AI is moving, we've effectively used it all; the high quality data you need to make smarter models is coming in at a trickle. We're not getting 10^5 Principia Mathematicas published every day. Maybe I just don't have the vision to understand it, but it seems like AI-generated synthetic data for training shouldn't be able to make a smarter model than whatever produced that data. I can imagine synthetic data would be useful for making models more efficient (that's what quantized models are, after all), but not pushing the frontier.

Prediction: AI will become commoditized ~15 IQ points higher than the state of the art models today, and with larger context, within 4 years as the incremental improvements in training from synthetic data plateaus (we've already used all the "real" data out there) and open source models are cheaply trained on the outputs of the big money models. Then AI development stagnates until someone invents an effective way to use competitive reinforcement learning to train generalized intelligence (similar to how AlphaGo was trained), removing the need for vast quantities of training data. Then, we get real AGI.

I've used these: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08F2MW3G2 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078YFQZK7

It seems to me the two are effectively the same unless you have significantly misshaped teeth (remineralizing vs regenerating). I also use hydroxyapatite, just to reduce my fluoride exposure, although I believe fluoride is supposed to be a more potent remineralizer (and fluorapatite is allegedly stronger than natural hydroxyapatite). But the upside is that I don't mind swishing hydroxyapatite around in my mouth for 10 minutes, twice a day, so whenever I go to the dentist, I'm the healthiest mouth of the day (not the case pre-hydroxyapatite tooth paste/powder).

For me the game changer here is the speed. On my local Mac I'm finally getting token counts that are faster than I can process the output (~96 tok/s), and the quality has been solid. I had previously tried some of the distilled qwen and deepseek models and they were just way too slow for me to seriously use them.

Interesting, thanks for clarifying.