HN user
It means financial companies have been illogically pumping semiconductor companies the last 5 months despite the profits, royalties and supply chain being entire worse than a year ago.
They pumped ai adjacent stocks to draw retail in, to provide liquidity now when they are in theory forced to purchase SpaceX.
Effectively getting people to buy semi-ai stocks at a premium to fund their forced purchase for SpaceX.
My theory is hedgies and investment banks using semi and ai hype as a liquidity bridge to drop into SpaceX which happens next week.
Arm and AMD pumped to insane levels on basically nothing.
What proof is there for your narrative versus mine?
How often do you have to do fast transfers from computer to computer?
Would argue for those purposes 40gig thunderbolt makes a lot more sense.
If this is true, I feel teh wifi alliance have a tonne to answer for the ewaste they generate.
WPA3 moved from symmetric AES to ECDH which is vulnerable to Quantum. Gonna be a tonne of IOT inverters waste.
Apple is about to deprecate the iphone 11/SE 2020 version. Am gonna repurpose them as webcams given the 12MP camera put in there is arguably better than the brand new ones they put on new macs.
The phone now has a limited lifespan though because of this prior stupidity where eventually am gonna get into spicy pillow territory. At that point the phone prematurely dies.
We are going into a period where we are throwing away devices with 12mp+ cameras, and processors arguably faster than most desktops. It was arguable when the phones were old and legacy, but at this point the cameras on there are stupidly good.
We need these phones to be repurposed for a second life and actually capture their manufacture energy costs.
Frankly, if Apple allowed old iphones to be used for server usage, it is kind of crazy how efficient per dollar that would be.
ARM is a bloody financial hand grenade.
10% of the stock is floated.
90% of the stock is owned by Masa who used it for collateral for his 18 billion loan for Stargate. THat is against 33 banks who have a strong incentivise to dump in a margin call situation.
Their revenues are circular for the last 4 years, with 30% growth purely coming from Softbank shuffling their own money.
They are gonna be the canary in the coal mine for when the AI bubble implodes.
The US job stats were revised down for 2025 to 181k, but somehow the Country gained 130k in January?
Is anyone looking at this and the CBO figures and not just realising the government is straight lying about the figures?
Gonna believe Powell and Waller on this one.
That is not a correct assumption. https://ig.ft.com/ai-power/
Reports in North Virginia and Texas are stating existing data centres are being capped 30% to prevent residential brownouts.
Okay but even in that case the hardware suffers significant under utilisation which massively hits RoI. (I think I read they only achieve 30% utilisation in this scenario)
They worked out because there was an excess of energy and water to handle it.
We will see how the maths works out given there is 19 GW shortage of power. 7 year lead time for Siemens power turbines, 3-5 years for transformers.
Raw commodities are shooting up, not enough education to cover nuclear and SMEs and the RoI is already underwater.
Buy gold.
Current US debt to gdp is 124%, 38.6 trillion. Japan too at 230-240%.
Bond markets in both are looking seriously unhealthy (Japan going via a Liz Truss moment at present).
If the AI bubble falls over, the US government is going to have to print 5 trillion to cover the bubble at least. The only option there is inflate away anyone holding cash.
If hte AI succeeds and people are replaced, the US government faces a massive fiscal cliff of a loss of tax receipts. They won't be able to service the debt and again will be forced to inflate away.
To service current debt projects, AI growth needs to return some 3.2-3.5%, it is currently 0.5%.
Bonds, equities, USD, and housing are all risk assets right now.
I think ARM is the one to watch. Softbank only has a 10% float of their stock.
90% of their stock is being used as collateral against 33 banks for 18 billion stargate loan to OpenAI.
Given Japanese bond markets right now, 30% circular financing, if the AI narrative falls, ARM is gonna blow up.
A 5090 gaming card is a different beast to the 80gb ai cards. That one was 40k usd so for renting that to hit 1.50 dollar per hour is interesting.
I am still a little skeptical about utilisation rates. If demand is so extreme, wouldn't we see rental prices for H100/A100 prices go up or maintain? Wouldn't the cost for such a gpu still be high (you can get em 3k used).
The defacto install of github CLI on ubuntu systems appears to be snap which is owned by some random dude...
There is AMD's onload https://github.com/Xilinx-CNS/onload. It works with Solarflare, Xilinx but also generic NIC support via AF_XDP.
The cpu is what a 9950x whilst paired with one of the cheapest asus motherboards with underpowered VRMs according to games nexus, hardware unboxed.
The cooler was under the rated tdp of the platform. That and it lasted 6 months and so far seemed the only case of it falling over like it did.
Yea am leaning on it being user error.
General consensus on that case seems to be they picked a budget motherboard and skimped on the cooler.
Am curious if the problem impacts m4 given it came out after this was released and disclosed.
That and it moved to Arm’s 9.2 instructions.
The biggest discussion I have been on having this is the implications on Deepseek for say the RoI H100. Will a sudden spike in available GPUs and reduction in demand (from efficient GPU usage) dramatically shock the cost per hour to rent a GPU. This I think is the critical value for measuring the investment value for Blackwell now.
The price for a H100 per hour has gone from the peak of $8.42 to about $1.80.
A H100 consumes 700W, lets say $0.10 per kwh?
A H100 costs around $30000.
Given deepseek, can the price of this drop further given a much larger supply of available GPUs can now be proven to be unlocked (Mi300x, H200s, H800s etc...).
Now that LLMs have effectively become commodity, with a significant price floor, is this new value ahead of what is profitable for the card.
Given the new Blackwell is $70000, is there sufficient applications that enable customers to get a RoI on the new card?
Am curious about this as I think I am currently ignorant of the types of applications that businesses can use to outweigh the costs. I predict that the cost per hour of the GPU dropping such that it isn't such a no-brainer investment compared to previously. Especially if it is now possible to unlock potential from much older platforms running at lower electricity rates.
It should be trivially easy to reproduce the results no? Just need to wait for one of the giant companies with many times the GPUs to reproduce the results.
I don't expect a #180 AUM hedgefund to have as many GPUs than meta, msft or Google.
I think there can be a difference here.
Was looking recently at the power requirements of an amp + subwoofer + 5 5.1 JBL surround speakers.
The setup was done decade ago, and the power needed for it was nuts. Something like 500W for a Denon amp and 250W for a JBL subwoofer?
For reference something like a OG HomePod consumes what 45W? The Sony srs xg500 boombox can last 30hours and is a giant room shaking boombox.
The difference in power efficiency between these old and new setups are nuts. Nevermind compatibility with AirPlay, streaming etc…
Surely this is an issue for there not being an easy mechanism for backing up?
The proper solution should be secure by design and user friendly. We shouldn’t compromise the former for the latter.
What is being asked for already exists? It is called Onload.
I am confused why they are around to begin with.
Companies already trust Microsoft, they buy Windows, Office, Azure.
Why would they bother with a 3rd party here when the low effort low risk solution is to pick the tool made by the OS vendor. I.e. windows defender
It should be a nobody gets fired for picking IBM situation. How did this random place get so much credibility that people trust them over the manufacturer?
Holy shit the level of delusion.
Crypto weakening the hold the state over citizens? WTF kind of paint thinners are you smoking?
Who are the main stakeholders in crypto?
- A consolidated pool of few miners (some of whcih are state owned because they are the only ones who own the electricity plants) - Russia, North Korea, China, the mafia? - A consolidated set of finance individuals who have a perverse incentive to take advantage of lax financial regulations - A series of exchanges run by proven scum - the largest owner what being the FBI and the US government? - A series of undemocratically elected scum who openly print fake money from Bermuda (Tether?)
A type of currency where people can lose their savings on a dime, have openly no protections and ridiculous levels of fees whilst simultaneously destroying the planet.
For the people my arse, the people involved should be lychned given how 90% of it just supports slavery, drug trade, war and crime.
You do know that Microsoft, Oracle, Meta are all in on this right?
Heck I think it is being used to run ChatGPT 3.5 and 4 services.
There is this new AI features, but I feel there was also a bigger reason to upgrade that was almost completely ignored.
A huge set of media companies have shifted to using AV1 and these older devices are gonna get hammered for battery.
I was planning on upgrading anyway just to get hardware AV1 decode given youtube music/youtube are one of my most frequent apps.
Surprised there wasn't more furore when Google mandated that shift.
Isn't that kind of the ideal cycle though? From what I recall, consoles operate on the gilette model, ie the console is sold at a loss and games are the breadwinner.
In this case, better to reduce early sales which are sold at a loss (production being expensive, significant R&D, scale being low), maximise at the end of the life when i assume they are maximising profits per console due to scale and R&D already being covered.
Does it really need saying? We know it is terrible, we know there is microplastics almost everywhere.
At this point it feels like little Timmy playing with fireworks next to the forest fire. Everyone and everything involved is terrible. Timmy still needs a scolding for being a moron.