jpadkins

I think there are rules about public disclosures in a run up to an IPO. They may not be able to publish updates until the official IPO process begins.

This reddit thread is devoid of any useful information. Just fear and speculation.

it pales in comparison to all the brain cells burned chasing dumb ideas. Don't sweat it, and keep burning tokens in an effort to discover something great.

I think another important question is can you distill taste? (another comment uses the phrase "externalize", which might mean something similar).

I think people have been trying for the written word, with some degree of success (anti-slop skills). I have been trying for visuals, and it's pretty meh. It's easy to get a multimodal LLM to follow a style guide, but a style guide doesn't capture everything that accounts for taste. And anything that is dynamic (not a screenshot test) seems really hard or really expensive.

also this post was a reply to Sandy on X.

Hah. Poe's law.

Why not N+1 planets? Too many extinction level possibilities outside of our control.

money is just an idea that spreads (a meme).

What you are describing applies to all forms of money. It has value because people believe other people will use it as money. If that belief drops, the value drops.

People comment on gold and Bitcoin, but don't realize the same principles apply to US dollars and bonds.

Brin did not come out of retirement or steer the ship :-)

He probably came out of retirement because LLMs were showing promise to a life long dream.

okay, but that is not the world that you live in. Many countries are religious and use religion to decide immigration.

I don't have any questions for you. Just wanted to thank you for writing Lean Startup, it was very influential to me.

why only a few thousand? serious question.

local models still need information retrieval.

I find this site useful https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models

That is the beauty of the Resolution part of prediction markets. If evil DDT Corp bets money to skew the market, then they lose even more money on the Resolution (assuming the resolution is deterministic of harm and has not been manipulated).

who uses SAT scores as "potential succeed"??

Nice try to make a law sound moral.

The other question you could be asking: Why does Google want to keep this secret for a period of time?

yes it is good in many scenarios.

Imagine bad (incorrect and potentially harmful) information is public knowledge. Examples are "X cures cancer" or "Is Y dangerous to consume".

A prediction market will be seeded by public knowledge (of course it cures cancer or its safe to consume), which you describe "suckers". History is filled with many examples of bad public knowledge that turned out to be false (e.g. DDT is safe pesticide).

An insider (someone who knows the drug trial results, or works at the Corp creating the harmful substance) is incentivized to trade on that knowledge, which creates a better informed public (via people who pay attention to prediction markets).

Why does secret(insider) knowledge exist? To the benefit of the organization that wants to keep the knowledge secret. Insider trading laws purpose is to keep Corp and gov orgs in power. They prevent the dissemination of true information (for private power). Prediction markets incentivize the dissemination of true information, a public good.

So because Quebec ancestors killed all the people who opposed the conquest of that land, it's okay for Quebec to secede? But because another set of Canadians didn't kill off all the natives that still claimed Alberta's land, they can't secede legally? Is that the logic?

What's great about this article is it's a falsifiable hypothesis. Is anyone keeping a list of companies in different sectors not firing due to AI? We can revisit this in 2 years and see how we did.

Solar panels on surface get ~70% less energy than in space once you factor in atmosphere absorption, day/night, weather, etc. Solar + battery on the surface is not economically viable versus nat gas generators (excluding externalities)

I see the programming was effective on you.

along with everything else Musk has claimed in the past decade

* mass produced EVs * Neural links to brain * reusable rockets * more efficient tunnel digging

Dude has a pretty good record of taking stuff in R&D and making pretty real products and/or companies. Can you name someone better?

Have you calculated the CO2 output of Terran datacenters run on natural gas vs. space datacenters run on solar? The launch CO2 usage is one time, the datacenter energy is for the life of the equipment.

ad creative (also just 'creative' for short in an advertising context) has been around since the 1960's. It was used in web banner advertising at its inception in the 1990s. Tribes have their own lingo, and language changes all the time. Sorry you don't like what the marketing tribe did more than 50 years ago.

One reasoning flaw I've seen in this type of discussion is the assumption that the person has the same value system as you / the experts. In your example, it is assumed that the subject values a very long life. Maybe they don't, maybe they value smoking way more than a long life.

I largely agree with you, but I would tweak it to say "Humans are decent at doing what's best for them given their own values and knowledge".

vapor has been used for medicine delivery for a long time, especially for patients who can't swallow pills.

Also gov regulation is not the only form of regulation. Fear of getting sued by your customers into bankruptcy is an effective regulation on putting harmful substances into your vape.

I'm glad I'm not the only one that noticed the article felt AI generated.