jonathannat

The discussion is a bit all over the place. The main points are that EU failed vaccination, and US failed covid testing (Statista disagrees https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-...) , as well as having a decline of innovation and movement (disagrees here, people moved everywhere during covid, and US came up with tons of effective vaccines)

It's pretty hilarious both ignored discussing the current failing government: China.

- Came up with a 50% effective vaccine sinovac, and forces its citizens to take it

- Wolf warrior politics has infuriated almost every democratic countries on Earth, and alienated China. When Merkel steps down in Sept, the Green party candidate is most likely to succeed. And the newcomer will act tough against China and Russia

- Ballooning debt (they don't own global currency, unlike US), declining marriage/birth rate, middle income trap, unrest in many provinces

- The CCP is so insecure that they banned broadcast of oscars because of Chloe Zhao, because she mentioned CCP as failing one time in 2013

Actually no, this marks the beginning the decline of power for Alibaba and the rest of the Chinese megatech companies like tencent and baidu.

The chinese government goal for the next 5-10 years is stability, control and state companies, not innovation nor private sector growth. They fear the end of CCP. That's why the recently 5 year plan stresses stability, and doesn't set a growth goal

That's why they cracked down on Hong Kong and basically gave up a conduit of western capital/talents as well as letting Hong Kong citizen's wealth escape abroad.

That's why they are becoming alarmingly nationalistic and lashes out on US/EU politicians and encourages its citizens to boycott foreign brands like H&M.

That's why they are building artificial islands in the south asia sea despite Vietnam/Phillipine's angry protests, to shore up their maritime power.

first link is "The World in 2050 report was published in February 2017"

second link is only regarding goods. goods + services, US is EU top trade partner

third link: there are now Japan/Australian/US/UK/France/German warships patrolling in the indo-pacific region.

fourth link: costly to maintain, uncertainty post covid

This seems like a very US-centric response. As I wrote

China sanctioned US/Canadian/UK/EU individuals and entities

erased H&M (swedish company) in all major Chinese platforms

Europe's num 1 trading partner

if you only count goods. if you count goods + services, US is still the biggest trading partner

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-china-lying-about...

Yes China Is Lying About the Size of Their Economy

https://fortune.com/2021/03/11/stimulus-package-covid-relief...

The $1.9 trillion stimulus package could see the U.S. economy outpace China’s for the first time in 45 years

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414648-chinas-shifting-dem...

China's Shifting Demographics Suggest Slower Economic growth

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/05/china-economic-growth-p...

China Signals Economic Caution at People’s Congress

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3015206/c...

China’s economic census uncovers more fake data as officials promise ‘zero tolerance’ to data manipulation

https://www.heritage.org/international-economies/commentary/...

The Problem of False Chinese Economic Data

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-china-lying-about...

Yes China Is Lying About the Size of Their Economy

Hasn’t China’s economy been growing steadily for decades?

Fake GDP #s, especially since 2010. CCP does NOT have a growth goal in the recent five year plan, meaning they can't fake increasing defaults and can't increase construction spendings anymore due to ballooning debt.

Hasn’t China formed new trading partnerships with many countries in Europe?

First time in 30 years EU has sanctioned China. The CAI deal (Europe-China trade deal) is now being put on hold since various members of EU being sanctioned. Potentially a dead trade deal going forward.

China is not a dictatorship.

It is. Please read up on Xi Jing Ping's personality, his success on removing most of his enemies and secure his power, and changing the law for unlimited terms

With regards to Xinjiang sanctions, China has also

- sanctioned US/Canadian/UK/EU individuals and entities

- erased H&M in all major Chinese platforms https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/hm-face-new-boycott-chi...

While that's happening, China has also

- signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran

- censored 'stock market' term from social media searches after stocks posted longest losing streak https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-banned...

- attacked US in the high-level Alaska talks, saying "black Americans are being slaughtered" while adding 'We will always stand up for our principles for our people' https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56452471

- parked hundreds of ships near a reef in order to possibly build more artificial islands https://www.npr.org/2021/03/26/981668318/chinese-ship-deploy...

My take: a dictatorship running scared on a declining economy, with enemies surrouding it and around the world, needs to bark loud and ramp up its military. it will either fade away into isolation, or it will do something stupid like attack Taiwan, whose missile capabilities can hit Beijing and three gorges and basically collapse China, and get sanctioned by countries worldwide, and fade away into oblivion

Not if most of us keep claiming laziness and buy stuff that clearly say "made in China", when there are alternatives readily available either online or next to it in the aisle.

Difference:

US riot - citizens who enjoy democratic freedom protested against republic/democratic government. protest got violent, government handled it.

Hong Kong riot - citizens who enjoy(ed) democratic freedom protested against encroaching dictatorship. protest was peaceful, but then turned violent when police faking as protestors started violence. protest got violent, government handled it (openly and in secret). The dictatorship increased its power at the end.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-huge...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48656471

At many different times in 2019, 1.7M-2M Hong Kong citizens, or 25% of the population, proudly protested in the streets and requested for their freedom. If only something good had came out of it.

Now it's sunk to what China's best at:

false arrests: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/mc5bah/young_man_...,

arrest for accessing online information https://restofworld.org/2021/hong-kong-journalist-on-trial-f...

brainwashing https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/23/hong-kong-will-distribute-...

removal of religious freedom https://hk.appledaily.com/news/20210322/ZUYEZROAIFB4NK2274RB...

fake democratic system https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/16/why-and-how-i-ended-my-par...

Imagine if you were a proud free parisian, and all of a sudden, you now live under nazi regime with concentration camps. That's probably what it feels like.

I find it odd that I've had to click through a few times on both hacker news and reddit to get the info for the person in question.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aimee_Challenor

Aimee Challenor, who currently works at reddit, is, at best, sympathetic to pedophilia. She has hired her father after he raped and tortured a 10 year old girl, a fact I find it hard to believe that she wasn't aware of, due to her living with him at the time of the crime, which happened in their house over several days. Her boyfriend also posted clearly pedophilic tweets, and he is now her husband.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ModSupport/comments/mbqgx2/a_clarif...

Incomplete list of companies moving out of China.

Adidas & Lacoste: https://www.glossy.co/fashion/lacoste-and-adidas-pledge-to-c...

Nike: https://www.gq.com/story/nike-adidas-shifting-production-asi...

Hasbro: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/23/hasbro-to-cut-china-producti...

Samsung: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-samsung-elec-china/samsun...

GoPro: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/gopro-is-moving-camera-produ...

LG Electronics: http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=5...

Sharp: https://9to5mac.com/2019/08/02/out-of-china/

Hyundai: https://tfipost.com/2020/04/big-hyundai-steel-and-several-ot...

Nintendo: https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/gaming/2019/07/09/ninten...

US has started to, with sanctions on xinjiang related companies, with sanctions on chinese officials over hong kong.

It's just a matter of time before more sanctions arrive. Because dictatorships are short-sighted and incapable of change. So let's say China tries to prod Taiwan with some military approach and fails. Or escalation of border war with India or Vietnam or Japan. Or increasing purchases or Iranian goods.

When there's a mini-war started by China in Asia, you will see a full worldwide sanction on China.

The western world can't.

I'm not sure if you've been paying attention, but supply chains have been moving to Vietnam/Malaysia/Indonesia/India/Mexico for the last few years, and the trend is only increasing.

There's literally a growing military alliance (US, India, Australia, Japan) against China right now. Also not to mention other countries (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, US) actively incentivizing their companies to onshore or move out of China. And because South China Sea is crucial to the growth of SE Asian economies, now France/UK/Germany along with Japan/US have warships sailing there to stop China's expansion.

So yes, the western world can.

For those who wants to stop supporting China, don't lose hope. Supply chains are migrating, due to tariffs, sanctions, and hatred towards CCP. Don't let naysayers who may have a vested interest in China talk you down. Just keep checking where the product you are buying is coming from.

- check https://chinalawblog.com and you will see that companies are indeed moving out of China at a quick pace. In fact, the site advocates that you do not think of China as the default manufacturing...

- most citizens in other countries hates China now. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-vi.... this dictates shifting consumer behavior (more and more people will choose items made not in China). US citizens has a 20% favorable view of China. https://thehill.com/homenews/news/543354-view-of-china-as-gr...

- No one wants to go to China right now. If you want to go, you are subjected to an anal swab covid test, mandatory spyware on your phone, plus visa incentive that requires you to use their state covid vaccine (50% efficacy!). Not to mention foreigner kidnappings and disbar from leaving the country. No company in their right mind would send their staff to China to increase footprint there

- from footwear https://footwearnews.com/2021/business/trade/us-footwear-imp..., to furniture https://www.furnituretoday.com/opinion/sourcing-strategies/b... to electronics https://www.wsj.com/articles/samsungs-shift-away-from-china-..., there's a steady pace of companies (big and small) moving out of china

So china's aggression in the past few years isn't out of position of strength, it's from a position of extreme weakness. And with Biden continuing Trump's china strategy in economic sanctions/stopping tech transfers/getting companies to move out of china, as well as now forming alliances to combat china, the continuing overall trend for china is decline and withdrawal, and for democratic countries is unity and strength. some recent events include:

- Lowest approval ever of China from US citizens (20%). similar decline/rates in other democratic countries this year. That means people are boycotting "made in china" goods.

- Japan self defence force, UK aircraft carrier, France submarines, and Germany frigates are now (and will be) patrolling south china sea along with US carriers.

- UK and Canada offering citizenships to Hong Kong citizens

- QUAD alliance (Japan, India, Australia, US), as well as 4 out of the 5 eyes alliance, increasing activities

- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, US and other countries offering continued incentives for companies to move back from China

- Apple moving iPhone, iPads and MacBook productions out of China

- Even Angela Merkel, China's most important ally in europe, has openly warned China to open up its markets or suffer. Also, she will be stepping down later this year (THANK GOD), and anti-China sentiments are rising in Germany

- US to build anti-China missile network along first island chain on Japan, Taiwan https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Ind...

BUT. An encircled crazed maniac will do strange things. It will probably do something ridiculously stupid like attacking Taiwan. The attack will fail, and china will be sanctioned by the world just like russia.

Interesting, so none of this bothers you

DJI had been supplying drone technology to Chinese security forces in Xinjiang https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-blacklists-drone-maker-dji-ove...

Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071

Gang raped, shackled and broken students: Inside China’s ‘horrific’ Uighur detention camps https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-uighur-d...

china overproduces things and trade dumps on other countries because of local government quota and made-up numbers for GDP. that's not a country we want to produce goods for the long term. buying from democratic countries would be a good start

not all countries run mostly on coal.

before you say "but then we won't have enough production" good, maybe we should create less things based on coal. we have item shortages now, and the world hasn't ended.

Plenty of black swans occur when dictatorship is the regime.

- assassination of dictator => internal turmoil

- early death of dictator => internal turmoil

- scuffle with neighboring country => economic sanctions by the free world

- dictator can't lose face, does something stupid => economic sanctions by the free world

- (Germany, Merkel, CDU) support for the dictator wanes and disappears => economic sanctions by the free world

- local governments cover up economic losses until its too great => hyperinflation, central government collapse

- triggering business defaults leading to dollar shortages leading to faster capital outflow => hyperinflation, central government collapse

- made up economic numbers are exposed => foreign businesses pull out

- nationalization of foreign companies assets => foreign businesses pull out

- natural disasters + lack of food supply => citizen riot

Nope, these people (farmers for life, migrant workers with no education, people living in abject poverty, etc) are stuck.

If there were actual growth in the economy, China would not outlaw hong kong citizens from leaving to go to England, creating a wall with myanmar to prevent citizens from escaping to there, having concentration camps to force uighurs to work for free, etc.

If I had to guess, American investments took over as #1 in FDI in 1992. Japan was still 4th in 1991. You can thank wall street, republican congress, and bill clinton for that.

https://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/15/business/foreign-investor... "Last year (1991), the United States dropped to fifth, with less than a 5 percent share of foreign investment in China, behind Hong Kong, Germany, Taiwan and Japan." then the article talks about massive US investments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_direct_investment_in_C... FDI spiked in 1992

Exactly.

700M Chinese citizens who live on $140/month income.

500M 65 year olds by 2050 (money flows up in Chinese society. One grandkid pays 2 parents who pays 4 grandparents, since it's a one child society) Oh and no social safety net. you think CCP members care about the plebs?

These analysts who tout China live in 2008 China. And they ignore Xi Jing Ping + demographics + middle income trap + total debt as if they doesn't exist.

Wow, way to twist the history to your own narrative. Also, no, Tesla has not eaten the entire auto industry, stock market cap doesn't equal to product market share

Video conferencing

Zoom (American company) launched in 2011. DingTalk started way late in 2014 and wasn't even that popular until 2017. and still playing catchup to Zoom.

mass-adoption of mobile payment

Japan in the 90s. I believe Chinese citizens were still mostly riding bikes then.

death of the desktop

Japan in the 90s

home food delivery (pre-COVID)

Grubhub was founded in 2004. IPOed in 2014.

online grocery

Tesco direct started in UK in 1997.

over the years, demographics change, macro economics change, geopolitics change, etc etc etc

there's also alot more chinese students studying abroad, compared to the old days. The creme of the crop stays, and the rest goes back.

a quick glimpse of the link you sent, alot of the economic data depends on you trusting the data coming from a dictatorship which obfuscates every clear economic signals. So I don't buy it personally. As for politics, China aligned itself with small countries/other dictatorships, while the big democracies that composes of 80+% of the world's economies united. As for tech, you need to also believe the claims they made.