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jimmy2times

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Exactly. Besides cost, domain-specific models (which can still be very large) encode our biases (i.e., our knowledge about the domain) in their architecture. Because of that, we have ways to calibrate their accuracy trade-offs over an in-domain sample.

For LLMs, there is a disconnect between the perceived domain (anything a human can think and verbalize) and actual domain (word sequence prediction). We only know how to sample from the latter, not the former.

This "silver bullet" idea sounds a lot like "free lunch". There has been a lowering of the bar for ML practices to make way for this onslaught of prototype-level productivity. Teams that used to do their best to run uncorrelated evals are now having the prompt engineers manually inspect ~100 model outputs before launch.

People were shocked by the accuracy of n-gram models and user interaction data to "read their mind" and complete their searches. Now we're obviously all impressed by the emerging abilities of LLMs (integrated with lots of business logic by the LLM providers). Hopefully in time we'll get desensitized a bit and have the right mental model when using these tools.

P.S. I love your username :)

I think the bipartisan moment against AI is in large part (surprise, surprise) optics. In reality, the powers that be may have already set their sights on AI as the next "too big to fail" industry due to a perceived economic threat from China.

I can't believe this is so unpopular here. Maybe it's the tone, but come on, how do people rationally extrapolate from LLMs or even large multimodal generative models to "general intelligence"? Sure, they might do a better job than the average person on a range of tasks, but they're always prone to funny failures pretty much by design (train vs test distribution mismatch). They might combine data in interesting ways you hadn't thought of; that doesn't mean you can actually rely on them in the way you do on a truly intelligent human.

I guess it would take a lot of patience, but it should be doable, maybe even more feasible than some contemporary music that is heavy on sound fx.

I don't find this as rewarding as trying to understand how a piece "works" though, or creating something new.

I think of this as analogous to self-supervised pretraining followed by training on a smaller labeled set. When you study theory you can ground it on music you've listened to throughout your life.

Also to improvise confidently you have to internalize the theory, not just understand it and memorize it at a conscious level.

I'd say "intuitive knowledge" is a good way to sum this up.

I would add that music theory and sight-reading are orthogonal. My partner learned piano at a young age, and she can follow a sheet but won't know what chords she's playing. I learned guitar by ear but I'm always thinking about intervals/chords/modes. Obviously having both of these skills would be great.

Besides security and caching, I think standards/interoperability are key.

I want my next-generation apps to work on a cloud filesystem of my choice, be it Dropbox, Google Drive, etc.

That will be the most significant step towards a real cloud OS, and I bet someone's already working on it.

If we're talking really long-term, I don't see a big difference between loading a web app and having a native app quickly and seamlessly installed and loaded just by clicking on a link. Eventually, improvements in bandwidth and computing power might enable just that. At the end of the day, developers will go with what is more feasible, but the whole distinction between web app and native might disappear from a UX point of view (just like the current web apps are kind of a hybrid between "old" websites and "old" desktop apps).

For instance, a Google search can distinguish a search for “New York” as opposed to one for “New” and “York.”

OMG, what kind of sophisticated AI did they use to accomplish this? I'm thinking random forests mixed with neural networks and SVMs.