I've been contemplating that recently. You're of course correct that subsidized tokens won't be forever, but that might only be half the story, since there's two opposing forces in action:
1. Phasing out of subsidized tokens.
2. Token prices being brought down through scaling, better hardware, etc.
It's possible that these might balance each other out sufficiently that token customers won't notice any substantial increase in price.
What if the CEO of that one will come along and notice all the fat stacks of money he's leaving on the table by not advertising to all of those rich contrarians?
In this case it seems like a bit of coaching could have retained a talented employee who has a preference for taking initiative.
I have a hunch that the order of the day within big tech is to let go of anyone they can. As long as they provide a reason, it's one less headcount that needs to be laid off in the next round.
As I see it, you're making a few mistakes in your thinking in this post:
1. You assume that the recent change is that we are close to building in space, but actually what's changed is that it's becoming clearer what might be commercially useful to build in space. Not so long ago, the best idea for commercializing space was satellites taking photos of Earth, or somehow making spacecraft for mining asteroids. Then Starlink started, and next up will be energy-intensive but high-latency distributed compute, which suits AI training well. A lot of the "exactly how" might still need to be figured out along the way, but it likely will get figured out.
2. You're assuming a space-based data center would look the same as an Earth-based data center. It definitely won't. It probably looks more like a larger scale Starlink, but with much bigger satellites due to the need for giant radiators.
3. You're assuming that different technologies (space DCs vs AVs) will progress in lock step with each other. Definitely not the case. For example, we can get wireless internet from space already, but we still don't have a robot that can give someone a haircut? The tech tree branches are mostly separate, and some explored a lot more than others.
4. Insane complexity is already something that many types of technology require. It does not preclude those things from being explored.
Fair, but actually you'd surely want your choice of those three, right?
And what's being discussed here is what the better implementation of option 3 is.
My point is that if you're going with one of the possible implementations of option 3, then 22GB per browser is objectively a lot better than 22GB per website.
Well, Musk v OpenAI kicks off in one week from now with the objective of forcing them back to their roots. A jury will be deciding whether a nonprofit accepting $50m - $100m of donations and then discarding their mission for an IPO is OK or not. Should be interesting.
It can write (some) code that works. Just roughly guessing from my use, but I think of it as being a bit like ChatGPT circa-2024 in terms of capability & speed.
Disappointing if you compare it to anything else from 2026, but fairly impressive for something that can run locally at an OK speed.
Self-driving vehicles need aircraft-type maintenance.
That's a hyperbolic false equivalence.
Aircraft typically carry hundreds of people and can crash to the ground. As long as a self-driving car can detect when it is degraded, it can just stop with the blinkers on. Usually with 0 - 2 people inside.
When the problem is particularly exacerbated, it's not even "I got mine", but rather, "I already went into eye-watering levels of debt and I'm still paying off the roof over my head."
I think this approach gets the whole industry to adopt it.
Consider the opposite approach. If they let airlines charge any amount for it, the airlines that installed it would make it expensive. No one would use it. Other airlines would feel no pressure to offer it.
By making it free, it gets used, and eventually depended upon. SpaceX are making free wifi the expectation from consumers on flights.