hansmayer

Folks, not EVERYTHING needs to be LLMs!

I guarantee

How do you guarantee it, exactly? AI told you in an authoritative tone?

So no one got it right? Myself, tech outlets, non-tech outlets, everyone on twitter, etc?

Oh, basic counting is now arithmetic? But I was told they were superintelligent and were going to cause an apocalypse because they can do pretty much everything ? Somehow because they can excrement a lot of text, we were told they can do everything else too?

Anthropic has generated far more than 5B in revenue

A sworn affidavit by the Anthropic CFO from Dec. 2025 is what you need to look up mate.

weird prior assumption to make

No, at this level of capital involved, and so much opacity around the company financials, it's a perfectly reasonable assumption.

You can also tell the LLM exactly what

You can - but it's not advisable, not in the least.

Oh really? How about the king of non-tech-outlets and digestible, shallow bites for the not-reading-books-middle-class, the Business Insider?

https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-coo-andrew-macdonald-ai...

You know their business is literally correct interpretation of the C-Suite statements.

10x revenue growth per year

To the stunning tune of 5B in the lifetime .

You think enterprises are adopting CC because they think "oh this will replace my SWEs I can fire them"?

Yeah, that's actually Darios main talking point

They buy CC because it's useful and the writing is so clearly on the wall in so many data points that to suggest otherwise is a bit silly at this point

Right, really sound arguments - writing is "clearly on the wall" and there are "so many data points". I'd be keen to use those immediately, but I am kind of missing the key of the "many data points" - namely, what did you build with it and how much ARR is it generating?

You, as a leader of a company, don't have to make predictions

I have to make predictions, but not confabulations, lies and idiocies.

Amodei and everyone else need to plan compute

FOR WHAT? Again, what was built with their shitty product in various companies and how much ARR did it generate? Uber seems to get no value out of it.

1T company plans to IPO and their leader has been loudly committing an insane amount of fraud?

Ever heard of Enron, Theranos, SBX ? They were all hiding in plain sight - who could've thought they were frauds?

Read the other comment in the thread. Your buddy literally confirmed exactly what I wrote.

Why puzzled ? I literally said "According to Ed Zitron", implying that's where I stumbled upon the article. I've no time to read corporate media, at least not regularly.

I don't have to try at all - I think anyone who spent as much as an internship, let alone years at a modern tech corp would have no trouble distilling the absolutely clear message - we are spending too much for too little value. And actually wtf am I explaining myself? Every major tech outlet interpreted it like that too. It's not that hard Simon.

Haven't you heard - these days they just throw slop generated by LLM agents over to other LLM agents which cosplay as internal QA. They know it works because they write really strict .MD files where they instruct agents in English language to 'never do this' and 'always do that'.

Their revenue has quadrupled in just a few months

Maybe, maybe not. We haven't seen that S-1 yet. All we have is the 5B in lifetime so far. PLUS - revenue quadrupled or not, it only matters if their costs did not expand at the same rate or more. Revenue is not profit.

In the meanwhile, Google AI search still says the next year after 2026 will be 2028.

Mate, for 5 years I've been hearing that crap. I am not predicting anything / on the contrary the AI boosting bunch is. When are your predictions coming true?

Timescales are hard for anyone to predict

Indeed. That's why serious people are very careful, even if they are not running a company supposedly worth 1T USD

He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance

Ah well, that explains it. For my companies next quarter, I'll just pull some random numbers out of my ass so we can make plans with material impact to company business based on that.

The source was the article in the WSJ itself, which then referred to their source at the Anthropic. Which kind of is a textbook definition of "leak". Because otherwise Anthropic would have their lawyers hunting both the employee breaking their stringent NDA and the WSJ as well...

Ah yes, December 2025...such a long, long time ago...

Yes, but that's irrelevant, because the COO uses that to base his core argument - that all that jackshit 1800 code changes per week that the CTO boasts about, mean absolutely nothing in terms of value. It means they are spending a lot on it, to gain as he diplomatically said "perhaps 20% more" - and I wonder 20% of fucking what - it's a ride-sharing app, what could they be possibly building on top of it with all that token crap?

I welcome you to also hold yourself accountable in the coming months if this trend continues. ;)

My company did not swallow hundreds of billions in shady investment deals and is not publicly traded. We work with real money, and the revenue on our books is the revenue that is actually booked, not fake revenue we plan in 2 years time to maybe happen. So no, I am not going to hold myself accountable. But people who work with other people's money should be absolutely held accountable when their wild imaginations don't come true, repeatedly, quarter after quarter, year after year!

Reasonable things? He said the same shit over and over over the last several years. Yes, lets hold him accountable - you don't make such "oopsies" accidentally, several times in a row.

So, unsourced vibes from a shady guy whose entire empire is built on being against AI?

Actually he provides sources when he analyses stuff and imho much better than the usual corporate "Sam Altman says we should ask ChatGPT how to raise babies" crap. Also, I don't know many 'shady' guys who have built entire "empires", nor does he seem to actually have an empire. Usually being shady means you are kind of unknown and all. I am not glorifying Ed, don't even know him personally. I am not even impressed with his writing style much to be honest. But he brings important facts and information to light, which otherwise would have been lost in the cacophony of corporate media light treatment of these con-men. Holy Grail? Blowing up in our faces? WTF are you talking about?

That "one" person is the COO of Uber. And the other one - the one based on whose statement about burning through yearly AI budget in the first few months - the whole discussion sprung up internally at Uber in the first place is the bloody CTO of that huge company. So yes, their words do have A TON OF WEIGHT. Thats why they are in such important positions, arent they? They're not quite the Derek from the pub, casually commenting on how Liverpool will fare this season.

No, he said exactly that, if you remove the corporate sanitised language designed to not offend the Uber CTO.

Their CEO claims a lot of wild shit. He claimed in January this year, that in about 2-3 weeks from this moment, i.e. "in 6 months" that AI will be doing all of SWE work. Lets hold these people accountable for a change!

? What are you talking about mate? The man all but says "this shit does not work for us". It iss layered in that careful, sanitised corporate shit-sandwich communication approach, where you take a nice piece of shit and layer it in between two slices of avocado so its sweeter to swallow for the "consumer" of your message.

He also said in that article that what prompted the discussion was the public statement by the Uber CTO that he had already burnt through his organisations yearly AI-budget in April. Please stop this shilling mate, and trying to hide the overall perspective between this or that word.

I agree. But I was talking about the "super secret" ability to write prompts, which pretty much anyone can do.

Well, your title certainly was not, in any case!