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graboy

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Yeah I mean, if you and I were to play the word-guessing game where you needed to guess what next word I'm thinking of, there's always uncertainty in your guess because it's a game of partial information - you can't fully observe my inner state. But that doesn't mean you couldn't evolve a strategy that spends a really long time thinking and analyzing to get asymptotically close to the best guess. There's no limit on that intelligence.

I kinda agree with you and I understand your point but I also think there is a social-ethical reality that if a doctor finds something they must treat it. The two options are 1. doing nothing, or 2. reducing cancer risk and you get unnecessary biopsies.

You're thinking of this as there being an objective positive utility for not dying of cancer and a objective negative utility for biopsies, and there being an objective optimal "rational" tradeoff that the best radiologist can optimize for to get their "nearly certain" detection threshold.

But frankly - the tradeoff for the value of a human life is perhaps the most uncertain thing one could choose. It lies in the eyes of the patient if the worry and time associated with a false detection is worth their reduced chance of death. The ethical uncertainty expressed in the OP - are these unnecessary biopsies worth it - is warranted.

This is why the paper presented does not support the claim that LDL is the sole source of heart disease

Is that what we were arguing about? I guess it was. At some point in thinking about this my frame must have shifted into agreement with you. Of course there are other causes of heart disease besides LDL, like blood pressure, duh. The smooth dose response is about the particular gene not being linked to heart disease through something other than LDL, roughly.

I think maybe you are saying that there may be some way that the genes affect heart disease not through LDL, and therefore MR does not apply because the "exclusion restriction" [1] fails here? Or are you talking about a different assumption?

The cited study addresses this, which is why I pointed to figure 3. They argue that if genes were causing heart disease not through LDL in any meaningful way, you wouldn't expect such a clean dose-response consistency across different genetic variants - it would be more jagged.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mendelian_randomization#Defini...

https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jacc.2012.09.017

Across different genetic variants, lower lifetime LDL -> lower risk of death. Check out figure 3.

The causality of LDL -> plaque buildup -> 55-60% [1] of heart disease related deaths is also well understood, so it seems clear to me that preventing plaque buildup in the first place prevents over half of heart disease related deaths.

Would like to know if you disagree, "Minimize LDL at all costs" goes current mainstream medical guidance, so I'd like to disconfirm my beliefs if possible.

[1] Number from deep research.

Empathy for Dummies 10 months ago

To the extent empathy is "do onto others as others would do onto you", empathy has a moral justification derived from Kant's categorical imperative.

I wanted to understand what you wrote better so I rewrote it:

You can't be sure that a lancet won't attack you just by the economics alone. Just because the price of a drone exceeds the price of its target doesn't mean there won't sometimes be expensive drones attacking cheap targets.

Maybe drones can improve their cost-efficiency by targeting stuff that has RF emissions.

Your writing reminds me of how I write when I have taken too much Vyvanse, I don't mean it in an offensive way but I'm kind of curious if you take stimulants.

After recently watching the absolutely fantastic and in-depth series by Asianometry on ASML's EUV machines, it seems to me that the EUV megaproject has been a fundamentally international endeavor that could have never been achieved without combining international resources, and Bloomberg's piece is buying too much into the narrative that this was technology that was developed in America first and lost to other countries.

Did Tirzepatide have any negative side effects for you psychologically speaking? I have been on and off the drug because I've found it harder to concentrate and affects my work performance - perhaps the lowered blood sugar gets to me. That and mild depressive effects.

I don't believe that this is specific to men. If an individual is threatening over email then it is more probable that they will be threatening in person in general.

If Mark's behavior made the author feel threatened then she has the right to avoid further interaction with him. But as others have pointed out, the emails sent are not threatening in the way that the author describes them, and there isn't really any evidence of "harassment". The author describes Mark's "intensity" while working with him at the Hackathon. It seems likely that this intensity carries over into the way he writes emails as well, which made the author feel unsafe.