gcuth

I’m gonna guess “finding”.

I eventually switched to asking about other texts, which made it extra obvious that this is the result of filtering prevent potentially copyrighted material: https://chat.openai.com/share/72a9275c-35c6-414d-8c03-37cbf3...

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia...

You're right; that's a better description, and I was wrong to suggest that he 'acknowledged the truth' in any strong way.

I think my feeling here is in the general vein of Alex Tabarrok's "a bet is a tax on bullshit" or Brian Caplan's "bettor's oath". I'm just happy that he's paying up and not trying to weasel out of the bet. Losing can be painful --- I'm sure losing $10,000 like this stings a lot --- and I want to be sympathetic to that reality: if he can't be magnanimous in this moment, he should at least get some kudos for the fact that he seems to have shut his mouth.

Kusenko should get a lot of credit here: he bet on his beliefs, agreed to terms, and then acknowledged the truth and paid up when he was wrong.

For folks who want to try the kind of forecasting being discussed here, Metaculus is a pretty great community: https://www.metaculus.com/

Their FAQ has a great explanation of how they 'score' user forecasts --- including a summary of Brier scores for binary yes/no questions, and the log score used for both binary and continuous questions: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#howscore

I have 'lighght' as a tattoo on my ribs. No regrets.