Perhaps. But their web interfaces will improve. Both are pretty small companies that will grow.
My main question is: Will something that "feels like Facebook" be what people want on their phones indefinitely? Or will something that feels more like a mobile app/service take over?
That's what makes them money now. But I don't think they will disagree that the future is mobile. And that's where they don't seem to be pushing as strong.
My broader question was: As more time shifts toward mobile, will the dominant social network be something created first for mobile, or will it be Facebook?
So far, FB mobile feels like a pretty unimaginative port of their website, and not the sort of thing that was imagined first for mobile.
Will that be enough, will Facebook change things up, or will it be disrupted by something mobile-first?
I think if I had a bus commute with Internet access I'd do that, too. But I'm on the subway underground, rarely with a seat. iPhone is much more useful in that situation.
You're assuming that the RSS feed sponsorship is sold out, and is sold out at rate card rates. Those are very aggressive assumptions. I estimated about $60,000 in annual revenue from RSS, assuming a 30% average discount to rate card rates and 75% fill rate. (Reductions of 25% to 50% are not uncommon in online advertising.)
For The Deck, founder Jim Coudal told me that $4,000 a month to the publisher is in the ballpark but a little low. So I assumed about $60,000 a year, or $5,000 a month. (Don't forget that The Deck itself is a for-profit enterprise, and takes a hefty cut.)
So I got to about $120,000 a year before t-shirt sales. Like I said... could be much higher. But I wanted to err on the side of caution, especially in this ad economy.
You're confusing reporting with commentary. We do both at SAI. Sometimes, commentary and speculation before reporting, as in this case. Sometimes the other way around. But fun rant.
So far I've seen no business models for this new technology. So who knows who is going to dominate. But you can't rule out incumbents now or in the future.