forkexec

Current project: Quarantining myself in my camper van for another week to see if I or my family members are ill before living together.

I have a Mac Mini with upgrades and a 4K monitor waiting.

Also, working on a boro water cooled virtualization/workstation dual EPYC that I've been piecing together before AMD made the press rounds. I'm supposed to have a dual CPU & VRM waterblock but the seller has been deflecting, dodging and dicking around for 4 months... they only mailed half of it.

https://www.dotmed.com/listing/ventilator/allied-healthcare/...

10 "in stock," $3,124.01 each.

There's also another model MCV200, 10 "in stock," $5,091.71 each.

Anyone got $95 grand lying around?

Edit: btw, in 2006/2008, the AARC recommended to the White House and/or HHS to buy 10k additional ventilators for the SNS, but the govt failed to do so. Now, the US, is for lack of better adjectives, royally-proper fucked.

https://www.aarc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/issue-paper-...

Wasn't Verily supposed to do this, or are they moving too slowly?

Edit: This item's page doesn't work on iPad. After three seconds, the page freezes.

Yep, because it's an mAb. EDP1815 is also an mAb. They're expensive and complicated because of big pharma profiteering.

EDP1815 (an MCA)? https://evelobio.com/portfolio/

Camostat plus E-64d was proposed in a paper in Cell around March 5 as a potential superior prophylaxis under investigation because it blockades the virus from using either ACE2 or TMPRSS2, completely denying SARS-CoV-2 from entering human cells.

It's not a vaccine but it seems possible to prevent infection and possibly halt illness. That is, if it doesn't have any yet unknown, horrible side-effects.

Hope isn't reality. Overall 20%-50% infection rate is most likely because of the multiple infection waves due to cycles of shutdowns and the extreme infectivity that will occur before a safe and effective vaccine candidate can be manufactured. That maybe 3-5 years. Also, post-resolution immunity duration is unknown.

Furthermore, infection rates in the US aren't being tracked so the CFR denominator is completely unknown.

And, focusing on CFR alone is myopic because of the serious, potentially permanent lung damage that occurs from this virus in those who have "mild" symptoms. There are a plethora of reports of unknown-lasting reductions in lung function by 20-30%.

There are only 62k ventilators in the US and 12k held by the SNS. Ventilators aren't simple machines and nowhere near as simple as residential -PAP machines, so this untested "open source" effort or GM saying they would produce them are virtue-signaling, useless noise inapplicable to the present timeframe. And where ventilators are typically used, there are only 65k ICU beds in the US. Furthermore, the machines aren't uniformly distributed. Areas with low ICU beds per capita and large cities will need many more, and some rural areas may not have any ventilators for hundreds of miles.

While there are 140k respiratory therapists in the US, not all of them work in intensive care or hospitals. Nurses are also required to staff an ICU ward.

All of this is moot without PPE needed for medical staff to provide care. No amount of medical robots would be able to tech our way out of this fundamental limitation.

I was just talking to my mechanic by text at middlefield & n shoreline at the Arco on the southwest corner, just across 101 from the Googleplex. He may have to permanently close his business and get a regular job because his landlord will demand rent when there are no customers.

A similar situation is happening to Louis Rossmann who doesn't have business interruption insurance because they require flood insurance and weasel out of covering disasters.

Another situation is Michael Moore's nonprofit movie theaters won't be reimbursed to pay or govt pay their employees' salaries, and building lease/rent.

Also, tip-based workers are screwed too.

Only 20% of workers are getting some money, with a little promise of temporary UBI to some people.

And then the government has the gall to offer interest-bearing loans instead of no interest loans and grants? WTF!

The situation is there will be people working to put food on the table sick or not, and riots if people aren't made whole. The US economy will crash and burn for decades if this isn't handled correctly by clawing back some of the tens of trillions the MIC, corporations, and the rich stole from the little guys and regular folks.

So the EE/CS undergrad program I did was heavily-analytical:

- It included the entire advanced level chem, physics and stats series for scientists and engineers.

- It was two elective courses shy of a math degree, including abstract math, concrete math, and tensor math.

- Only a few courses shy of a physics degree as well.

- The entire EE track and entire CS track of course.

- Writing lots of code for multiplatform portable code including Linux, HP-UX, Solaris, SGI, and some MINIX 2.

I think they should make it a mandatory combined undergrad /Masters' or /PhD program to be of sufficient depth into research achievement and breadth of knowledge to be useful in industry that cannot be achieved in the absence of an advanced degree. I think most of the undergrad CS knowledge can be acquired by osmosis in industry or self-study without a degree.

I'm glad I didn't study at all or have any coaching for the 1600 pt SAT I in the mid 90's because it would've been entirely unnecessary. I missed one question on the math section and it was a dumb mistake on my part. Our school's graduating class alone had over a dozen perfect SATs, multiple full rides to Harvard/MIT/Stanford and around 70 over 1500. ~97% had test prep.

Now go to India, take the JEE and find out how fun testing can be because the SAT is not much harder than a driving test. :) (Emphasis on the JEE being a much better measure because it's more difficult and more voluminous so that it would make Einstein feel insecure and inadequate.)

IANAMDOMP. After respiratory therapists, it seems like perfusionists will be stretched thin too because there are so few of them globally. I would predict lots of ECMOs and long waiting lists for lung transplants in the next few months, but also lots of poor outcomes for COVID patients with preexisting cardiopulmonary issues. I just hope young and middle-aged people take it seriously and don't avoidably waste healthcare resources through irresponsible behavior.

The word "quarantine" derives from the Venetian word "quarantena" meaning "40 days" separation due to the Black Death because "trentine" (30 days) wasn't long enough.

There are several factors to consider:

- Temporary measures, once cancelled, will steepen the curve and recreate rapid community spread conditions. This will lead to a number of cycles of pandemic curves and responses as modeled in a number of papers.

- There is insufficient testing in the US to know what's actually happening, or even if serious or critical ILI patients have it.

- The JHU data shows March 20 suddenly leveled off, but this seems like a single, erroneous aberration since that day hasn't finished yet as of writing. [0]

- Until there is a safe and effective vaccine proven to work, there's no realistic alternative except to isolate and not venture out more than absolutely necessary, in small numbers.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

In this case, the primary motivation is to light a fire under POTUS'es rear-end with concrete data and matter-of-fact worst-case scenarios. It may only be secondarily clickbaity to increase pressure on POTUS. These are decent and respectable motives to get ahead of a crisis.

There is no working vaccine. Multiple candidates will take a year and a half if everything works perfectly. It's possible that a vaccine will not be found.

Yes. I don't think most people understand or respect the danger. When 10M-100M of people's lives are at risk, economic considerations must take a back seat to taking extreme/difficult measures that may seem like too much. It's better to overdo it and look overreacting than fail to take actions that could've saved many people's lives.

Italy has a much better healthcare system than the US, and they had about 500 people die today. The US is going to be really hit hard.

I've read some of the literature on modeling the outbreak. In 45 days, the US will have no ICU beds available, basically no emergency healthcare available as it will be completely overwhelmed, and anywhere from 1-10 million will die over the successive pandemic waves within the next 18-24 months. Vaccine/s, prophylaxes and treatment protocols, in large numbers, are essential.

One of the largest dangers will be the premature reopening and lifting of shelter orders because the virus will not magically go away, and then people will abandon sensible precautions and cause a new pandemic wave that will kill untold thousands. Complacency and irresponsibility will kill many people.

Also, the Spring Break kids and the governor in Florida are beyond ignorant, they're reckless, selfish and liabilities to everyone else. One coastal Florida county's health department wasn't testing ILI patients to avoid coronavirus statistics, and preventing doctors from testing patients.

This isn't something to underestimate, because to do so would gamble your and your family's lives. Furthermore, young people are by far the greatest spreaders and also at risk for developing critical symptoms.

Consider:

- how many people don't vote because it's a rigged sham that's setup to benefit the Property party, not the people

- how poor and how close to homelessness most average people are

- how corrupt and unaccountable the police are

- the nation with the highest incarceration rate except Seychelles, for-profit prisons, and the legal slavery loophole exploited by corporations

- a nation without a viable healthcare or mental healthcare system

- a nation that gives public commons and public services over to for-profit corporations

The revolution is that much closer because the US has been gradually becoming a banana republic failed state for at least 50 years, if not 70.

To calibrate a rational response by governments, organizations and individuals. Without widely-disseminated good data, people could either be acting like it's Spring Break on Florida's beaches or hiding in their underground Cloverfield bunker. A rational response lies somewhere in the middle, depending on what the actual conditions are.

Hiding data, reality and/or lying to people leaves us all less prepared to take proactive steps to protect ourselves without over-spending or being caught under-prepared.

If some people panic because they can't handle reality, that's their own fault.

Although I can't see how wiping down the inside of a bus with a single microfiber cloth without chemicals accomplishes anything, but I hope they have the data to prove that this method works. And what about shadows and nonlinearities? All I see is a couple of point source lights with some andons and a klaxon.

That's some serious ageist hate coming from people who may get to be old themselves someday, with younger generations cheering for their death. The Golden Rule didn't get learned, I guess.

Your own self-serving bologna doesn't count as well-established science, and making unfounded health claims about supplements is illegal under numerous federal laws. I suggest everyone reading this contact the FDA to urge enforcement action against these shylock clowns.

Alex Jones, Jim Baker and whoever these scammers are... Snake oil panacea merchants preying people during on disasters. The FBI, IRS and FTC should throw a whole library at these vile, criminal scumbags.

It's called a semi-log plot. X is linear time, Y is log population count. The slope of exponential-like acceleration phase indicates the growth rate.

PS: this type of data is much better modeled by relatively simple ordinary differential equations because the rate of change of a communicable disease is proportional to the number infected.

No, this is a shady supplement peddler fabricating "research" to sell vitamins. Please keep this worthless crap off HN.

Nope. Terrible.

Is this going to be the excuse to roll tanks and missiles down the street and suspend elections too?

Here in Paradise, I had some unused 3M N95 NIOSH respirators leftover from the Camp Fire. Who knew they'd be useful for more than gardening and sawing lumber? I also snagged a few 3M 1870 surgical masks before the gouging and scarcity for their higher surface area because going out in public and pushing a 400 lbs / 180 kg shopping cart around in a light-duty respirator is likely to be a not as fun adventure in breath condensation. Be sure to also wear eye protection like indirect or non-vented goggles too, because wearing regular glasses will likely aerodynamically direct small particulates into the eyes.

According to Italian media, 50-75% of those infected are asymptomatic and the vast majority are 20-somethings.

No. Temperature has more to do with it, which has already been proven with the semi-log growth charts.