dia80

Tailscale on your PC and phone. Free (as in beer). I run vikunja.io in docker at home and simply web browse to it over the tailnet.

If you are using the dollar right now, what pain are you taking? None. What's actually happened? US added some tariffs and became a bit more isolationist and the Fed has lost some independence. Might not bode well for the future but has very little impact on today.

Even if the dollar was "dead" the time and effort required by the world economy to switch away from the dollar system would be enormous so not much is likely to happen quicker than a few decades.

This warrant's a little caution, there may well be some negative selection bias here. The banks most likely to go bust are the ones most desperate for cash so they offer the highest interest rates... If it's FDIC insured you are good up to $250k but I don't know exactly how much inconvenience is associated with your bank going bust and potentially collecting FDIC insurance.

UK rules differ from the US there is a 3-point test for insider trading:

1. The information has to be specific - Yes - you should sell Boeing

2. Would a reasonable investor take this information into account when making a decision to trade - Yes - this seems quite clear

3. The information must be non public - IIRC disclosure to a large group of people - in this case the perhaps 200ish people on the plane knowing it had a problem would probably count as the information being public and thus this test is not met and you are free to trade - I think the bar is around 30 people

I knew all those hours spent in compliance training would come in handy one day!

Not really going to help you make money...

Forecast! Time to reach for your linear regression, GBDT or NN.

Quant trader here... I'm a big seller of this list. Making money tends to be a relatively empirical endeavor. It's all about having information about the future and using that in judiciously way and less so about any particular theory or model. I see someone else mentioning Grinold and Khan "Active Portfolio Management", I can't recommend it enough, it's basically a how to for making money quantitatively in a principled way, there are lots of "tips and tricks" that go on top of this and it really helps to have some good intuition for the space you are trying to operate in (by that I mean understanding the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of your risk matrix). T-costs are also extremely important and the main "enemy" it's trivial to make money if you don't have to pay to trade.

Steven Boyd at Stanford and his students / colleagues are probably the richest seam of up to date portfolio optimization wisdom. If you are using python you shoult probably be using CVXPY to build your portfolio. He has lots of good papers, e.g. see [2].

Of course you also need an "edge", that information about the future, and that's the jealously guarded part...

[1] https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Active_Portfolio_Mana...

[2] https://stanford.edu/~boyd/papers/pdf/cvx_portfolio.pdf

What's that little box for? A foot warmer?

Great video, thoughtful and persuasive. Highly recommended to broaden your perspective, it did for me.

As I understand it SVB is insolvent primarily due to incompetence, the actual actions they have taken: take deposits and buying US treasury bonds are every day activities for a bank. There are no exotic derivatives or off balance sheet special purpose vehicles. It's hard to regulate that away.

Not so, Kherson was annexed and is now back in Ukrainian hands. You can conclude from this that RU accepts their annexations are BS.

True Story: I visited No. 11 Downing Street as a school boy in 1998 when Gordon Brown, our local MP, was chancellor. He took us next door to no. 12 where Nick Brown was chief whip, he started pointing out things in his office and as he was doing so a side door opened and a man stepped in. He pointed at the man and said "And that's a civil servant". The man reversed course, closed the door, opened it again and stuck his head around and said "Yes, minister". My classmates didn't get the joke, I did but was too stunned to laugh as Nick Brown and Gordon Brown had fallen about laughing and I was just thinking "aren't you meant to be running the country and not making TV jokes?" To be fair it was pretty funny :)

You are going to love this:

How real are real numbers?

https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0411418

To me, some of the benefits of having the occasional meeting is to create a shared understanding of what's going on and also to enable a vigorous group discussion. I'm not sure I would know how to replicate that with writing alone.

Patrick McKenzie makes the usual smart person mistake of trusting their intuition on finance because it has served them well in other domains.

In this case the pertinent question to ask oneself a priori is: "if, as I believe, tether breaks down what are the chances that people will be defaulting on Defi platforms thus turning my clever trade in a catastrophe where I lose my principal?"

This is what traders call "wrong way risk" - your trade becomes self-defeating. An example.od this from real life is JPY cross currency basis swaps. A cross currency basis swap consists of 2 back to back loans in different currencies. Japanese investors have excess JPY and seek to convert it to USD via this mechanism so they can buy higher yielding assets in USD. Cross currency basis swaps attract a premium, in this case as the flows are predominantly lending JPY, the lenders get a lower interest rate than the prevailing market rate. The problem arises if you are a US or European bank and wish to do this trade with a Japanese bank. If there is a JPY crisis the premium will become even more negative as Japanese entities scramble to get USD in to meet liabilities by lending JPY. As the foreign bank you will have a mark-to-market profit on the JPY you lent but your Japanese counterparty may well be unable to pay due to the unfolding crisis in Japan.

Yes, The ambulances are waiting outside the hospitals with the last patient so they can't go to get the next one. Source: Family members have recently waited some hours outside A&E in an ambulance.

Define recession?

A lot of negativity here but I guess the target market is locations where the air pollution is bad enough that the benefits of escaping it outweigh looking like an extra from a sci-fi B-movie. I remember hearing on the radio in London how air pollution was going to be very bad one day approaching 10 on some scale. A scientist was being interviewed and was asked "Where would the pollution in Beijing be on this scale?", he replied "About 300"

Oh... You think selling the flow info of consumer FX will pay for all that.

It's expensive for a reason... Technology, banking fees, compliance department, margin loans... I'd be interested to see your financial model!

I'm always a bit put off by the "experts can't tell the difference between these two things!", in this case red and white wine. On closer inspection one usually finds an element of deception, here the white wine is coloured red and then experts describe it as a red on tasting.

This makes sense from a Bayesian point if view... What are the experts priors? What's more likely? That their nose is off today or someone is trying to decieve them by dying white wine red? I would guess it's the former. There must be a large publication bias is well, "experts can differentiate white from red wine" is hardly going to get much attention.

To make this a fair trial I think you need to blindfold them rather than "trick" them.

Yes, but sometimes that's all you have to go on. Imagine you are a manger with high quit rates, what do you do? Say I've no idea what's causing this and won't until I see hard evidence, or, think about the article and wonder if any of these factors are affecting you and try to change them. Even if it's wrong it's a good onramp to thinking about your problems.

Unfortunately, errors don't require his approval...

I have a thoracic spinal cord injury, I can still move my hands and arms fully but not much else. When I was in hospital people were there for all kinds of reasons. There was only one theme. Motorcyclists. What's more they tended to have cervical injuries thus couldn't move at least part of there hands and arms or sometimes all. I can't ever motorcycle now but if I could that would have been enough to put me off. The tail risk is crazy.

It's kind of tiny. Instead of the expected ~8 out of 79 hospitalised it was 1. They quote p=0.006 . Feels like in the real world that could easily be luck.

ICU load is now much lower for a given level of cases and barring new variants it will likely decrease further with boaster shots and more people recovered from infection and possible new therapeutics. Moderately increasing ICU capacity would be expensive but not vastly so. See "people in ventilator beds" in the link

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Vaccines cut severity of disease and thus the societal burden of infection. While I agree these measures are potentially draconian it's wrong to say they convey no benefit.

(replying to sibbling)

By political corruption I mean activities that are obviously detrimental at societal level. That sucks if you are Charles's Tennant and you want to by the freehold but I'm think more of funnelling contracts to your unqualified friends like the PPE scandals. Again I'm not suggesting the royals are perfect just that the alternative is worse.

By "fill their pockets" I mean actively engage in political corruption. The royal families relatively static wealth makes little difference in the grand scheme. The £85m figure from the crown estate mentioned in this article is 0.1% of government spending.

I didn't mean to suggest the royal family are unimpeachable beacons of virtue but that their primary motivations are different to politicians in a way that benefits the country.