daxorid

His podcast is, by no means, his only business or income stream.

These people aren't wrong, though.

Powell has printed $6T, and the DXY has gone nowhere but up, along with the SPY and the QQQ and the DJIA.

Every single Thursday, we report more job losses than expected, and the market screams higher.

As much as we'd like to think there will be consequences to printing money, the evidence is in that there won't be, either in currency value or market confidence. MMT has proven itself correct.

Personal experience from someone who enjoys hunting and eating game:

The bigger issue is getting one's family on board. A spouse or kids who have grown accustomed to CAFO beef and chicken and not much else will be difficult to transition to gamier meats, to say nothing of offal.

whose fault is it that Wall Street react to tweets?

He's not permitted to tweet anything that may materially impact the stock without prior board or general counsel approval, per his contempt agreement.

Obviously Jay Clayton is going to let him get away with it just like his prior violation of the Consent Decree, but for the brief period of time that the market forgets the SEC is toothless when it comes to Musk, this is nominally a big deal.

This is a ridiculous assumption. For two obvious examples, Art Bell attracted plenty of advertisers, as did early-day Howard Stern.

Some advertisers do, and some do not. Don't lump them all into a single bucket. YouTube is creating an environment that guarantees a future without Art Bells or Howard Sterns.

The concern you raise could easily be remedied with a single checkbox on the advertiser portal labeled "Display this Campaign on Fringe Content". The fact that with the enormous technical capability of Google, they choose not to do this and instead decide that they know the advertisers' preferences better than the advertisers themselves demonstrates clearly that this is about power and control, not ad revenue or serving the customer.

We don't want money laundering

Can you explain this? It's never made any sense, at all.

1. If you earn excess unreported income, eventually the IRS will figure it out and come get their cut.

2. If you earn it through criminal means, you're already committing a crime for which, if caught, you will be punished.

Why is the act of obfuscating the source of income a crime? Who gets harmed by this, that isn't already harmed by either the potential crime committed or taxes evaded?

This method, while effective, is likely to be a significant frustration for the woman in this situation, given that cyclical high fertility usually coincides with high sex drive.

Then they do what everyone else does. Sell the asset and cut back on expenses.

Capital owners are not a special class of citizen. If you have assets and need cash, there is a way to convert one to the other. It's called a "market". You may have heard of it.

It seems that during recessions, asset-rich/cash-poor people, nominally Capitalists, turn into overnight socialists because making cuts to the ol' lifestyle is for the little people, not them.

Though pretty much every ecommerce site of any significance is stressed to the max right now

This is certainly not the case for clothing retailers.

You very well may be correct, but I'd like to point out that for a broader sense of "doomsday narrative", living in or near DC while the rest of the US crumbles would be a lot like living in Rome when the Germanic tribes were overrunning the Empire's frontiers. DC is the absolute best place to be during an American empire collapse - until, of course, the very end.

Yes, but stocks are ripping higher on much worse jobless claims, housing starts, and Philly Fed numbers than expected, 113 unexplained cases of reinfection in South Korea, and the PPP fund being completely tapped out with three weeks to go in Congress' recess.

The market is fully convinced that everything is fixed.

Not quite as savage as you think.

His PhD is in Neurotoxicology. Of all the things Martenson has been wrong about over the years, this particular event is a bit more in his wheelhouse than the economics or energy topics he typically covers.

Not really relevant. Equities are completely divorced from reality at the moment. FB and GOOG could guide down 2020 revenue by 50% and the stocks would pop AH because $6T new money has to find returns somewhere.

They're all generally a week out

At this point, everyone should have accumulated a two week buffer of food and water. A week of foresight isn't a terribly onerous ask.

The greatest psyop was that perpetrated against their own disbelievers.

The very same people who were outraged over the CIA fabricating pretext for war against Iraq are completely uncritically accepting of the CIA's pretexts for war against Syria.

It's stunning.

The Federal Reserve is printing $90B per day (on average) in open-ended QE. This liquidity is used to take agency paper and treasuries off the hands of primary dealers and hedge funds. In turn, the managers of these organizations refuse to sit on cash, so they grab other assets. Some (large) percentage of these assets will be equities.

Anecdotally, retail investors also appear to be buying the dip in volume, though we need more recent fund flows data to see if reality reflects anecdotes.

the demand is still there

Right. Common belief in 1930-1931, too.

Psychology is malleable, and consumption patterns beyond food and shelter are driven largely by psychology. In the great depression, consumption behavior of an entire generation was permanently changed, no matter how much better the economy got. Those mental scars lasted forever.

What percentage of the population will watch a parent, spouse, best friend, or grandparent slowly asphyxiate to death and develop a lifetime aversion to casual dining, tourism, mall shopping, non-business air travel, fast food, staying in hotels, visiting family for holidays, casino gambling, meeting with potential clients, going to class, etc?

And then what are the second order effects of not needing the suits/ties/dresses, jetliner inventory, commercial real estate, gasoline, cruise ships, university buildings, casinos, etc required for the above activities?

Which of the economic sectors predicated on those activities will "bounce back"? What is the current high-yield debt load associated with these sectors?

Feces comes in all manner of consistencies and textures. There is a range of consistencies for which bidets are wholly useless. Specifically, sticky ones. For these, you need friction from a solid, high-surface-area object.

I'm sure you've had brown streaks inside the bowl that could not be removed in N flushes, but a simple toilet brush made quick work of the matter.

To use your handwashing analogy, try removing crisco, or some other substance that adheres to your hands with a stream of water. Now try physically wiping it with a paper towel. The towel will win every time.

This is to say nothing of the fact that it's quite nice to leave the bathroom with dry hindquarters rather than a bad case of SA.

Only on HN is $54k/year considered "low paid".

The US median income is $31k. $1050/week is an enormous pay raise for well over half of the working population.

A significant percentage of people on this site have never seen a recession in their entire working lives. In their lived experience, the DJIA only goes up, and every single dip is a buying opportunity that reaches ATHs within a week or two. Hopping overpaid React/Angular jobs every 18 months for more pay is normal and risk-free, since the job market has never not been hot.

I've been them, in prior cycles. They know everything, and won't listen to anything but actual hard experience. An education is coming, but not from our comments.

Here you go:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/01/29/8008132...

Thanks. Specifically, from your citation:

"In addition, angiotensin converting enzyme 2, the receptor for SARS-CoV-2, is expressed on myocytes and vascular endothelial cells, so there is at least theoretical potential possibility of direct cardiac involvement by the virus"

The most sane hypothesis I've seen is that the virus will attack any cell with the ACE2 receptor, including the heart and kidneys:

"Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is an enzyme attached to the outer surface (cell membranes) of cells in the lungs, arteries, heart, kidney, and intestines."

This would require the virus to enter the bloodstream from the lungs, which is possible after sufficient alveolar damage.

ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_...

As an aside, although Wikipedia doesn't mention it, testicular cells also express ACE2, leading to some worry about downstream fertility effects:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v...

not sure what you’re so upset about

In mid-January or so, the R0 and early CFR values for this thing were publicly available. Authorities such as the WHO and the CDC, and their lackey journalists in the media (both left and right, Vice and Fox) were beating the It's Just The Flu, Bro drum for a full month and a half since then.

Meanwhile, anonymous tweeps with anime avatars were digging into the numbers and disseminating the real news. It's one of those situations where you don't even need expert opinion, just a cursory understanding of what the numbers mean and the ability to write a 30 line monte carlo simulation in python.

So yes, being angry that the experts and journalists were actively trying to get people killed while an army of people with 73 followers and Yu-Gi-Oh avatars were the real heroes is fully justified.

It's so cartoonishly comical that Hanlon's Razor doesn't really apply. Malice is quite evident in this case, and it would be nice to see every JTFB type held to account when this is all over.

ULA consistently ran a profitable business.

You can afford to undercut profitable companies when you set OPM on fire.

The FRB is printing $90B per day as part of its open-ended QE program ( $935B in Treasurys and $344B in agency paper since 16 Mar )

While they are not technically buying stocks, every dollar of paper they buy from primary dealer inventory is a dollar that managers will find a home for.

The horrific employment news portends the need for the Fed to make $90B/day look like amateur hour in the near future. Hence, the run up in basically every single asset class today.

Understand that in an era of perpetual debt monetization, silly things like P/E multiples, employment, or earnings growth don't anchor stocks. Infinite liquidity combined with fund managers with a fetish for yield, no matter what the risk, are the only relevant mechanism in town. It's entirely possible to simultaneously have DJIA at 50,000 and half-mile-long lines for soup kitchens in this environment.

No, this definitely sounds like the baker's version of broscience to me. Anecdotally, our starter is a few months old and makes excellent bread.

Hoarding is a small aspect of current shortages. I'll pick one example at random:

Gyms are closed, so go try to find a squat rack, a bar, and some bumper plates for a home gym. Or dumbbells. Or even some crappy resistance bands. You can't. Nobody is hoarding 45lb plates for future use, they're demanding them for use now. Expand this for every industry impacted by shutdown orders. It wouldn't take long to think of hundreds of examples of non-hoarding shortages.

Inflation is coming. Shortages are the market telling you that price MUST increase to equalize demand. And it will.

Some of your gripes are valid, but:

absurd cost of living in major metropolitan areas

I fail to see how this is the Boomers' fault. Cosmopolitan urban life is a choice, often fiercely defended by Millenials on account of access to "culture", which frequently boils down to a wide diversity of differently-decorated venues in which to get drunk.

Sure, suburban life is boring, and living in the country is hard. But it's not a choice your Dad or your guidance counselor made for you.

the impact to the economy will only get worse

To be fair, most of the economic sectors affected by this are silly frivolities, e.g. travel, tourism, fine dining, vacationing, nightclubbing, cruises, sportsball, etc.

The actual, value-generating, real economy will continue on as before, and may possibly even benefit from it as our attentions are shifted away from garbage pursuits that don't advance society at all.

Money is being temporarily created and lent

What is your definition of temporary? QE 1/2/3 were each supposed to be temporary. But each one was never enough, and fed smoothly into the next. Then they finally tried reducing their balance sheet and the repo market blew up. Then "Not QE" repo support was supposed to last two weeks. Then only a few months. Now "only" a year, and at a trillion dollars overnight and half that in 14 day operations. How certain are you that at year's end, overnight repo support will be less than $1T? On which track record of correct predictions from central bankers do you base this belief?

Since 2008, there's not a single Fed dot plot that has been even remotely accurate even six months out. SIX MONTHS. These people have absolutely zero credibility. They lied to you about the duration of QE 1/2/3, they lied to you about the duration of ZIRP, they lied to you about the direction and duration of rate hikes, they lied to you about repo market support amount and duration. During all this, they steadily changed their mandate from "price stability", to "some inflation", to "2% inflation", to "2% symmetric inflation", to "greater than 2% symmetric inflation".

But this time, with QE4, they're super cereal pinky swear scouts honor giving you every reason to believe that it's temporary.

Okay.