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codingwagie

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I think this works in simple domains. After working in big tech for a while, I am still shocked by the required complexity. Even the simplest business problem may take a year to solve, and constantly break due to the astounding number of edge cases and scale.

Anyone proclaiming simplicity just hasnt worked at scale. Even rewrites that have a decade old code base to be inspired from, often fail due to the sheer amount of things to consider.

A classic, Chesterton's Fence:

"There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”"

I think coding manually is like doing wood work manually, its going away. I am planning my exit, expecting it to take a few years for me to fully leave the field. But I want out, and this is coming from someone with a ton of FAANG experience.

OpenAI o3-pro 1 year ago

I'm seeing big advances that arent shown in the benchmarks, I can simply build software now that I couldnt build before. The level of complexity that I can manage and deliver is higher.

Real reason is apple is probably stacked with legacy employees with 30 years of experience in some hyper specific apple stuff, and now with the ai paradigm shift, legacy employee expertise is not only obsolete, but is probably a hinderance. They will recover, will just be slow

in my experience it is 100% true, every contract i have seen with over legalese is created by people who expect to be acting on those terms

I think its completely possible to start a side business, people just dont 100% validate business ideas before building

any extremely long contract with obtuse terms is designed to screw you in some way. you just wont know until you get there, unless you are willing to spend 10-20k on lawyers to argue the terms

Personally think that supabase and vercel are giving AWS a run for their money, and will start to eat into their market share. The developer experience is far superior to AWS, in a way that cannot be argued away by AWS handling "more complexity and scale". Supabase/Vercerl products are superior to large cloud providers, and while they target a narrower aspect of the tech stack, and to smaller customers, they will expand into more enterprise as their users grow.

AWS needs to get their act together and start prioritizing developer experience

Also, supabase is looking like the go to database for ai created apps. Which will be a major tailwind