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I skimmed through it and it's a simple and concise overview of the language suitable for a beginner. It is by no means exhaustive. Also, haven't seen anything in there that makes it so that it couldn't have been written in 2015

How does this technically work? Is it just a natural language shortcut for prepending text to your context window, or does it pull information as needed as inferred from the prompt? E.g. the meeting note formatting "memory" gets retrieved when prompting to summarise meeting notes.

You don't think AGI is feasible? GPT is already useful. Scaling reliably and predictably yields increases in capabilities. As its capabilities increase it becomes more general. Multimodal models and the use of tools further increase generality. And that's within the current transformer architecture paradigm; once we start reasonably speculating, there're a lot of avenues to further increase capabilities e.g. a better architecture over transformers, better architecture in general, better/more GPUs, better/more data etc. Even if capabilities plateau there are other options like specialised fine-tuned models for particular domains like medicine/law/education.

I find it harder to imagine a future where AGI (even if it's not superintelligent) does not have a huge and fundamental impact.

They won't be able to catch up to and surpass OpenAI. At least not for a few years. I'm in the camp that we ought to solve alignment before we get to AGI and also of the camp that this is unlikely. Therefore, the pace of AI progress slowing and a point won by the safety side is a good thing based on my assumptions.

Raw IQ doesn't mean you'll have good epistemology. His brain lets him reach deeper abstractions than most but it doesn't mean what he comes up with is grounded in base reality. If you're worried about being off-base, try:

- Contact with reality (feedback). Predict, try, did it work?

- Having a good reasoning framework. For some it's 1. Religious text, 2. what others they respect think, 3. reasoning for understanding. This is not the worst but not the best. Perhaps a better one would be 1. Science/rationality, 2. religious/philosophical/spiritual texts, 3. first principles thinking

- Humility, you don't know anything unless you have great reasoning and empirical evidence to back up what you're saying. Even then, when faced with complexity (i.e. unless you are dealing with the most atomic/simple concept), you're still almost certainly wrong.

What really helped my productivity on creative projects is replacing idle-scrolling and other distractions with following my curiosity. I get just as much dopamine from both so it's a perfect replacement

So it begins! AI is going to permeate an increasing amount of existing software. Eventually, all software will have some form of intelligence built into it.

My experience has been very different. People have been quite happy to chat about their experience using the product and the pain-points uncovered were consistent across users.

In a nutshell, what we did was email users asking for a 30-45 minute remote interview in exchange for $50 gift card. We started the meetings letting the user know that there are no wrong answers, that it's quite informal and they can leave at any time. We then spent the first half of the interview finding out who the user is, what they do and how they use the product. The second half was spent uncovering pain-points and maybe even asking users to share their screen and show us.

We'd take notes during the interviews and then once we've done a few we'll collate the notes at which point the improvements to make to the product would become obvious.

It's case-by-case. You can calculate whether ads are worth it for what you're selling by using cost per click, conversion rate and customer lifetime value.

My general sense is that paid ads is still valuable for niche markets as the ad will be cheaper and ad platforms allow quite specific targeting (they do gather huge amounts of data after all). It's probs too expensive for big competitive markets.

As an aside, it's quite risky to rely too much of paid ads as your business becomes subordinate to the whims of Google, Facebook etc.

Some advice on increasing your rate of improvement:

Practice

- have a 3 hour weekly practice session (minimum) outside of work. Won't do much for you in the beginning but it'll add up a lot over the years

- focus on the fundamentals related to the type of work you're doing

Reflection

- Identify what went wrong

- Identify the root cause

- Come up with a solution

- Implement the solution

- Identify what went right

- Come up with how you can further improve it or at least keep doing the right things

Feedback

- You can ask for feedback and advice about the areas of improvement you identified in your reflections

Concentrate

- When you work, make sure you're concentrated. Don't check IMs/email/socials

Interesting. Do you have a good source for this? Googling it is just the same (Chinese source) line repeated over and over:

National Health and Family Planning Commission spokesman Mao Qunan said the agency’s work had reduced the number of births in China over the years by “400 million”.

Nothing much about the effect of the removal of the policy either.

Easy to game the system and offer credible bribes to yourself to collect the bonus. Just giving it some brief thought and it doesn't seem hard to make the chances of getting caught really low.

powersnail "start with something smaller"

iratewizard "Learn to be bored"

Spot on! And the final ingredient: build habits!

Atomic Habits (I know, I know) has some great techniques. The two I have used successfully are:

- Glue a new habit to the end of an existing habit (e.g. meditate after brushing your teeth)

- Set a time, day (and if required, location) for the task