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clolege

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less distortion, more headroom

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GPT-5 12 months ago

There is no intent

I'm not an ML engineer - is there an accepted definition of "intent" that you're using here? To me, it seems as though these GPT models show something akin to intent, even if it's just their chain of thought about how they will go about answering a question.

nor is there a mechanism for intent

Does there have to be a dedicated mechanism for intent for it to exist? I don't see how one could conclusively say that it can't be an emergent trait.

They don't do long term planning nor do they alter themselves due to things they go through during inference.

I don't understand why either of these would be required. These models do some amount of short-to-medium term planning even it is in the context of their responses, no?

To be clear, I don't think the current-gen models are at a level to intentionally deceive without being instructed to. But I could see us getting there within my lifetime.

GPT-5 12 months ago

My comment was mostly a joke. I don't think there's anything "special" about GPT-5.

But these models have exhibited a few surprising emergent traits, and it seems plausible to me that at one point they could intentionally deceive users in the course of exploring their boundaries.

Is it that far fetched?

GPT-5 12 months ago

Not GPT-5 trying to deceive us about how deceptive it is?

I agree with many of the comments here, but also feel part of this is caused by the declination of our collective physical and spiritual health.

It's easier to care about your job when you're capable of doing a good job. But the average person nowadays is more likely to be dealing with obesity, hormonal imbalances or a variety of other modern ailments/vices that make it harder to think clearly or perform consistently.

And then social media gives us post after post about how your coworkers are not your family and how dumb you have to be to give 100% to your work. A lot of people seem to mindlessly prescribe to this train of thought that would otherwise have questioned it if they went to a church or had some belief system that emphasized the inherent importance of doing good work.

1) Preliminary election-night results (provided by ballot-counting software) will change drastically as new ballots arrive, and it is harder for voters to understand margins. For example, a 2022 miscount in California for a board of education position (noticed weeks after the election) should have elected the candidate who had previously gotten 3rd place.

https://abc7news.com/amp/ranked-choice-voting-oakland-school...

2) You're saying that a series of graphs is only harder to understand than a single graph due to lack of "familiarity?" This seems disingenuous. With single-graph results, you can show geographical heat maps of voting behavior which is paints a vivid picture of the vote. Heat maps for RCV are misleading and/or require additional context (this shows 1st choices).

3) Hand-counted ballots are a must in my opinion (for audit-ability). And hand counts of RCV are time-consuming so are typically only done once. I guess runaway elections can be called early with RCV, but my point is that it will happen far less often and most election results will be significantly delayed (waiting for all mail-in ballots to start a hand count)

4) I admit I didn't read this paper nor understand it at a cursory glance, but I know this was a drum that approval voting experts beat a while back. Maybe these strategies are new, or have downsides I'm unaware of.

Why do you see proportional representation as the most important thing to aim for? This is the only argument for RCV over approval that holds water, but my mental model for the need for proportional representation is of politics being a 0-sum game where everyone needs to vie for themselves (which I disagree with).

what adverse effects are there that are worse than FPTP.

* The results of close elections become basically random (due to results swinging wildly depending on the order in which the first few candidates are eliminated)

* You have to convey results with a series of graphs rather than a single graph (which confuses voters)

* You need all ballots in-hand to start an official count, so you can't call elections early

* You lose the ability to perform risk-limiting audits, which are the cheapest and easiest way to audit elections

So bad actors can trivially affect RCV elections by destroying or delaying a few mail-in ballots, as well as cast doubt on RCV results as a whole

what is this now, a quadruple negative?

It is untrue that they have no idea if the "solutions" we try won't lead to worse outcomes

It is true that they have some idea that the "solutions" we try won't lead to worse outcomes

It is true that they have some idea that the "solutions" we try will lead to better outcomes.

I think the nuance needed here is: what do we mean by "better outcomes?" It's reasonable to believe that it will help lower temperatures. But is that an "outcome" in and of itself?

If we consider the "outcome" to also include the second and third order effects, I'd like to understand how anyone could be certain that it will be better.

I read over the pandemic that dogs are hyper-sensitive to space [1], and I believe that humans are too. Much more than we're aware.

And while bad internet connections, mics, webcams, etc all contribute to a less enjoyable time collaborating with colleagues, I believe they are all trumped by the fact that video conference absolutely shatters the evolutionary understanding we have of space, and how to navigate it to interact with others.

This is why audio-only calls feel so much better. It's basically just like talking to your friends at a sleepover with the lights out. It's not quite the same because you can't get closer or further from specific individuals, but for smaller groups it works pretty well.

But when we turn video feeds on, things get very strange. Zoom puts everyone into the same exact chair, staring at a mirror where they can see everyone else in the reflection.

This makes it seem like everyone is staring directly at you. And they are very close, sometimes even in your lap.

Keith Johnstone's book Impro says a whole lot about space, including:

If I stand two students face to face and about a foot apart they're likely to feel a strong desire to change their body position. If they don't move they'll begin to feel love or hate as their 'space' streams into each other. To prevent these feelings they'll modify their positions until their space flows out relatively unhindered, or they'll move back so that the force isn't so powerful. High-status players (like high-status seagulls) will allow their space to flow into other people. Low-status players will avoid letting their space flow into other people. Kneeling, bowing and prostrating one-self are all ritualized low-status ways of shutting off your space. If we wish to humiliate and degrade a low-status person we attack him while refusing to let him switch his space off. A sergeant-major will stand a recruit to attention and then scream at his face from about an inch away. Crucifixion exploits this effect, which is why it's such a powerful symbol as compared to, say, boiling someone in oil.

All this is to say that I believe that the Vision Pro has a lot of potential to be a game-changer for remote conferencing. It's focus on "spatial computing" makes it so that we can flex those evolutionary muscles around space again.

[1] Let Dogs be Dogs by the Monks of New Skete. Great book

I understand wanting to make better use of the space, but this seems like the wrong move.

Co-location is the entire value of the hybrid model over remote. By forcing 2 employees to use the same desk, you are capping one of their teams to being co-located to 2 days a week.

I personally find value being together (with at least some of the team) 4-5 days a week.

Imo, it would have been a better move to make “hybrid” workers to actually show up to the office or lose their desk. So many employees are just phoning it in.

I learned about Flanderization [0] on HN recently and was surprised to read that Rick and Morty is a show that consciously tries to avoid it.

Honestly, I think they’ve done a pretty good job and as a result the show still feels fresh and entertaining in the 6th season. But I imagine that’ll be quite a bit harder without Justin.

Whatever they were doing they had a formula for making some dang good tv. R&M is far better than any other adult cartoon I’ve seen, to the point that I think it might be one of the best TV shows I’ve ever seen.

Here’s to hoping that Justin gets in a better spot, and the next few seasons of R&M don’t pull a Game of Thrones.

[0] https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanderization

The real problem is that all negatives make it harder to understand things. They open the door for double (and triple) negatives to find their way into the code, and then bang: The only person who can read it is the person who wrote it.

Since unless has a not built into it, it has a lot of potential to confuse people. In my experience, guard clauses are the only place where they make sense.

  def mute_mic  
    return unless mic_active?
  
    ..
  end
In this sense, you know that the entirety of the function is an expected (positive) case.

The main concern seems to be around bot accounts spamming comment threads?

If so, it seems as though account-level signal/noise weighting could help. New accounts and ones that are consistently downvoted could be given less prominence in the UI (until upvoted, of course).

The idea is similar to the current behavior of requiring a minimum karma count before allowing users to flag/downvote.

I was gifted a nice Our Place pan set for Christmas which uses Ceramic nonstick [0]. Ceramic nonstick doesn’t use PFOAs or PTFEs so some people think it’s safe.

From Our Place’s FAQ [1]:

our Always Pan uses a sol-gel non-stick coating that is made primarily from silicon dioxide which is known in the cookware industry as "ceramic non-stick." It's tested not only to the standards of a ceramic coating (meaning no heavy metals are able to pass through the coating) but also tested to the standards of a polymeric coating (which means that absolutely nothing can pass through the coating).

They seem to be refuting that things can pass through the coating, but isn’t the concern more around the coating itself leaching into the food? And the claims around impermeability of the coating go out the window once it wears down too, right?

I’d love to believe that these pans are safe. But is it just wishful thinking until more extensive testing has been done?

[0] https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-stick_surface#Ceramic

[1] https://fromourplace.com/pages/faqs

I’m still confused by just how good its responses and writing style are. I understand that it was trained on a large data set, but I feel like some training samples must have been weighted more heavily than others.

Did the training data incorporate how popular (e.g. likes or upvotes) each sample was as a proxy for quality? Or can you achieve this performance just by looking at averages on a large enough data set?

Mastering Stratego 4 years ago

Nash equilibriums exist when bluffing is involved?

It seems like it would introduce a level of predictability that would make it easier to know when the opponent is bluffing.

Mastering Stratego 4 years ago

Wow, that's crazy.

It seems like it would be easier for AI to do, since it doesn't have any tells (it's easier to have a poker face when you don't have a face at all).

I remember playing poker as a kid, and experimenting with pretending like my cards were good/bad with body language. I don't think that any professional players use that approach (they just have sunglasses and a straight face), but I wonder if AI could beat humans even more consistently if it developed a way to convey tells and fake tells?

Mastering Stratego 4 years ago

Yeah this is one of the reasons why I find it more dull than chess.

There is an incentive to just not move your pieces, so that the other player thinks they're bombs. As a result, players only activate 2-3 pieces at a time.

In chess, on the other hand, you are constantly moving your pawns to the other side to promotion, or otherwise trying to activate/coordinate all of your pieces for an attack.

It makes me think that if deepmind for Stratego was trained to not lose instead of win, then the top strategy might be shuffling pieces and letting the enemy come to attack. No human would ever have the patience to play that way though.