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ckuehne

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thesoftwareparadox.com 11y ago

The Software Paradox

ckuehne
2pts0
www.rationaloptimist.com 12y ago

Do people mind more about inequality than poverty?

ckuehne
3pts0
www.technologyreview.com 12y ago

Filling a Search Engine Blind Spot

ckuehne
1pts0
papers.ssrn.com 12y ago

You Can't Teach Speed: Falsifying the Deliberate Practice Model of Expertise

ckuehne
1pts1
well.blogs.nytimes.com 13y ago

Mammogram’s Role as Savior Is Tested

ckuehne
1pts0
blog.rescuetime.com 13y ago

5 habits of highly motivated novelists (Rescuetime experiment)

ckuehne
2pts0
www.nytimes.com 13y ago

Patents on Software: A Nobel Laureate’s View

ckuehne
109pts52
calnewport.com 13y ago

Work Less to Work Better: Experiments with Shutdown Routines

ckuehne
4pts0
www-public.jcu.edu.au 14y ago

Reef winners and losers in a warmer world

ckuehne
1pts0
www.spiegel.de 14y ago

The Samwer Brothers Find Global Internet Success

ckuehne
2pts0
www.nytimes.com 14y ago

A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

ckuehne
101pts92
agtb.wordpress.com 14y ago

John Nash's Letter to the NSA

ckuehne
296pts28
www.overcomingbias.com 14y ago

Why so Much (Management) Consulting?

ckuehne
4pts0
lesswrong.com 14y ago

Stories we like to tell, and why they are likely wrong

ckuehne
2pts0
hopaulius.wordpress.com 14y ago

A Tale of Two Workers

ckuehne
12pts0
youarenotsosmart.com 14y ago

The Benjamin Franklin Effect

ckuehne
5pts0
www.overcomingbias.com 15y ago

Intellectual Property Rights Same Advantages As Barbed Wire?

ckuehne
15pts13
youarenotsosmart.com 15y ago

The Backfire Effect. Or: Why you can never win an argument online

ckuehne
9pts0
yann.lecun.com 15y ago

"Steep Learning Curve" is an Erroneous Metaphor

ckuehne
43pts25
www.overcomingbias.com 15y ago

Why Laugh at Nerds

ckuehne
3pts0
www.ted.com 15y ago

Child-driven Education as an Emergent Phenomenon

ckuehne
1pts0
www.youtube.com 15y ago

N=?NP, Physics, Feynman, and Quantum Computing

ckuehne
7pts1
www.loni.ucla.edu 15y ago

The Neurobiology of Intelligence - Or: Why IQ is not a Statistical Myth

ckuehne
3pts0
www.dailymail.co.uk 15y ago

Want to live longer? Cut the carbs!

ckuehne
1pts2
youarenotsosmart.com 15y ago

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

ckuehne
6pts1
www.ted.com 15y ago

The (Power Law) Mathematics of War

ckuehne
2pts0
www.nytimes.com 15y ago

Engineers: Right Wing Terror; Humanities: Left Wing Terror?

ckuehne
14pts1
www3.ntu.edu.sg 16y ago

People Twitter to relieve their existential anxiety

ckuehne
1pts0
www.korea-dpr.com 16y ago

Air Koryo: The Official Webpage of the national airline of North Korea

ckuehne
2pts0
youarenotsosmart.com 16y ago

The Just-World Fallacy

ckuehne
80pts50

“Some people become depressed at the scale of the universe, because it makes them feel insignificant. Other people are relieved to feel insignificant, which is even worse. But, in any case, those are mistakes. Feeling insignificant because the universe is large has exactly the same logic as feeling inadequate for not being a cow. Or a herd of cows. The universe is not there to overwhelm us; it is our home, and our resource. The bigger the better.” David Deutsch

We're already inundated with mediocre programmers, many of whom have CS degrees, which is precisely why the industry looks at job experience more than credentials

How does looking at job experience help to distinguish good from bad developers?

I think your statement "Once you have plasma breakeven you have a self-sustaining heater basically" is false. According to Wikipedia [1] - if I interpret it correctly - the fusion energy gain factor from plasma must be 5 (!) to have a self-sustaining heater:

"Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5"

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor

I like this quote from the "Where We Have Failed" paper: "We are very uncritical of systems created by the large Internet vendors to that solve application-specific problems, which have been written, until recently, by development teams with little background in DBMSs. As such, they have tended to reinvent the wheel. I am especially amused by Google’s adoption and then rejection of MapReduce and eventual consistency."

Note that the chart in the linked comic begins in the middle of the last ice age. It ends one or two degree celsius above the mean temperature of the previous 500 years (or so). The big hockey stick at the end is a prediction! At the point in the chart at about 16000 BCE it states that the short warming or cooling spikes have probably been smoothed out (after all, those ancient temperatures are only available by proxy).

Export is not the metric you are looking for. Germany exports lots of solar and wind engery during storms or on hot summer days because it cannot use it. The prices for this energy are low, even negative.

"What’s going on here? Why is Postgres wasting its time, continuing to search even though it’s already found the data we’re looking for?"

Because Postgres has not already found what we are looking for. The query is

  select *
  from users
  where name = 'Capitain Nemo'
  order by id asc
  limit 1;
Only after Postgres has found all users with the name 'Capitain Nemo' it can sort them by their 'id' attribute and limit the result set to the first one in the sorted relation.

Otherwise very nice post though.

I think you are confusing things.

The problem is not to compute S=10^(3 * 10^10). In fact, we have already computed it. The problem that you originally discussed was waiting (at most) S steps until we can be sure that the finite state-machine either stops or runs forever. I assumed 10^9 steps per second. Thus, the waiting time would be approx. 10^10^9 years.

Wikipedia has a nice discussion on the topic with a quote by Marvin Minsky [1]:

"Minsky warns us, however, that machines such as computers with e.g., a million small parts, each with two states, will have at least 2^1,000,000 possible states: 'This is a 1 followed by about three hundred thousand zeroes ... Even if such a machine were to operate at the frequencies of cosmic rays, the aeons of galactic evolution would be as nothing compared to the time of a journey through such a cycle'"

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem#Common_pitfall...

It is not "relatively easy" to solve. It is exponentially hard. For example, 16 GB RAM means you have about 10^(3*10^10) possible states. That is a 1 followed by 30 million zeroes.

So I guess I'll pick you up in about 10^10^9 years and you tell me how it goes. That is of course assuming that your program does not load new functions from your hard disk at some point which would add more state to you program thus stretching the waiting time even longer.

But this is exactly the point. How do you know that it is a correlation? To establish a correlation you would also have to look at all the founders who did not succeed. As far as I am aware, Jessica has not done this.

Maybe a quote by David Deutsch will ease the pain:

"Some people get depressed when they find out how huge the universe is. They feel tiny and insignificant and think that nothing matters in this world.

That makes no more sense than getting depressed when you find out that cows are bigger than you. What is the big deal about bigness? A cow is much bigger than you, but it is a ridiculous animal and you are a valuable person. You know it’s a cow. It doesn’t know anything. it just stands there eating grass (grass!) and mooing. And if it were bigger, that would only make it more ridiculous."