HN user

cf141q5325

1,546 karma
Posts12
Comments734
View on HN

I believe the argument goes that you are getting molded into a dysfunctional / unnatural state under the label of sexual liberation which then makes you easier to control and influence. The former enabling the later. I could be off though, sorry if this turns out to be a derogatory summary / simplification, its not intended this way.

I am getting lost earlier so you or the parent might be able to help.

Which should perhaps tell us something, especially given the disastrous sexual libertinism that characterized the early communist regime of the USSR.

How does that tell us the behavior by those three actors is motivated by him trying to subvert society through weaponized sexuality(to assume for arguments sake)?

Leaving out the US during McCarthy for a moment to reduce the risk of derailing, totalitarian / authoritarian regimes acting against people criticizing them (here in form of his "Mass Psychology of Fascism" in which he also criticized the communist party and later added his orgon stuff) doesnt tell me much about the author other that he isnt a good fit for such systems. Enforcing conformity is what they are all about and at the core of the dysfunctional error correction mechanism that plagues these systems.

And more confusing, how can the second part of that sentence work as a qualifier? Does that mean you would not expect him to get this treatment in the USSR since he showed ideological loyalty on this topic (again for arguments sake)? I would argue looking at the political purges at the time where even complete ideological loyalty and conformity didnt protect you from power considerations its not surprising either.

As some general feedback regarding the rest of the post, reconsidering the certainty about individual statements as well as conclusions might make the post more readable. It otherwise reads as constructing arguments for an already taken conclusion.

Burning is not an euphemism here, thanks for mentioning it.

From Wikipedia:

On 23 August, six tons of Reich's books, journals and papers were burned in New York, at the Gansevoort incinerator, a public incinerator on 25th Street. The material included copies of several of his books, including The Sexual Revolution, Character Analysis and The Mass Psychology of Fascism. Although these had been published in German before Reich ever discussed orgone, he had added mention of it to the English editions, so they were caught by the injunction.

Publishing the Mass Psychology of Fascism had him kicked from the German Communist Party before.

Another pretty random bit of information, i recently stumbled about his Sex-Pol movement in another context as the Mitrokhin Archive alleges that Arnold Deutsch (Recruiter of Kim Philby of the Cambridge five) was a follower of said movement. Pretty sure thats a great example or the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baader-Meinhof_effect

Frequency illusion, also known as the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon or frequency bias, is a cognitive bias referring to the tendency to notice something more often after noticing it for the first time, leading to the belief that it has an increased frequency of occurrence.

Determining who to trust with this (on what topics) seems to be an incredibly hard problem with no obvious solution. And unfortunately a lot of people either seem to delegate to those that make nice sounding promises or ignore the issues all together. Even the statement you just made could always turn out to be a "noble lie" aimed preserving personal sanity at horrible cost for others. After all, having psychological support, or being able to deal with this, says nothing about what kind of solution they would produce. In all likelihood those people to delegate to will turn out to be in large parts depressed, detached or psychopaths. So i dont see a way around verification.

Having agency in a society ( through democracy, markets, shaping narratives in discussions and many other ways) might just require adults who deal with the horrible aspects society produces in a responsible manner. Which includes not designing solutions for a false peace of mind. After all, you yourself (as in every individual) are the one responsible for the consequences you produce.

Personally i hope this might be a matter of outer alignment, as in a problem of not agreeing on shared goals that you can apply to problem solving in a coordinated manner. Which has to include the ability to verify process and outcome (which unfortunately in itself are highly safety critical) and the unwillingness to accept false but pleasant conclusions with high costs for others.

You are treating hardware like software by arguing with the experience we have made so far with a given model. Environmental conditions as well as it being different physical objects is a huge problem for hardware. The data about error cases is also simply not recorded. You get at best statistical reliability with small sounding chances for errors that are still happening all the time.

You can also not make any statement about reality by arguing with feasibility.

edit: I am unfortunately not qualified to tell you how feasible ways to deal with reality in this case could look. Which doesnt mean that i cant identify some error cases. You also require different levels of competence for designing a rocket and recognizing a non functioning one.

edit1: In regards to the usage of statistics as a basis one should also remember confidence and these cases https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-figh...

Your experience is quite limited. Too limited to have a meaningful opinion on this subject frankly.

I am having quite the big problem with this getting downvoted. The poster is spot on here and this needs to be communicated. Not doing so is irresponsible. Overconfidence in this regard is extremely dangerous and there is no nicer way to say this.

You can not reasonably assume that you are able to judge something works reliably without understanding how the error cases look. Especially if these are capsuled from you and or you dont know what to look out for.

This is at the very core of why something like the post scandal was possible. People repeating the same mistake in this very thread is just really bad. The only thing worse would be not telling them this.

You are describing the exact same experience people who arent programmers have with software. It usually working and being almost always problems with the user.

It also leads to the same horrible misjudgements as in the article mentioned above. If you dont know what to look for you will come to erroneous convictions by ruling out the error cases you do know.

A very common problem is bugs caused by cosmic radiation if you want an example. But bugs in silicon are also not rare and really difficult to catch. You really got to stick your neck out and hope you can actually proof that through stuff like debugging with electron microscopes. Especially if it becomes an issue of responsibility between different departments. The monetary stakes make this all the more difficult.

Hardware bugs are simply capsuled better so people dont recognize them as such. Its the same mechanism at play as for people who assume software normally functions. They are also just unaware of the inner working.

Stuff is just really complicated and people should manage their expectations. I get that going from assuming to have a solid base to no such thing existing is difficult to handle but there is no sensible way around that. Not doing so gets you stuff like the article.

Its a major problem with many of such issues. Some stuff is just really horrible, often even without any clear approach of how to fix it. It then gets even more problematic if people react to this by retreating into easy stories that act as mental fig leaves. Especially once these leads to clearly dysfunctional attempts to solve the issue, making the situation even worse for those effected.

Its worth mentioning that there is a second perspective to this being a matter of EU/NATO vs Serbia. Aljazeera had an interesting opinion piece framing it as Kosovo getting dropped to achieve Serbian integration into the western block

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/14/does-the-west-s...

Cant say anything about the plausibility but the references to EU sanctions against Kosovo and the former president of Kosovo being currently on trial in the Hague are interesting points.

Non opinion piece on the background https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/why-kosovos-standof...

Would be happy to hear from anyone familiar with that perspective, it was news to me. But pressuring Kosovo to play ball in the negotiations doesnt seem to be out of the question?

First off, thanks for mentioning Karl Popper and the media literacy theory. Will have to look into that. I wish you the best here.

Have been thinking about the issue as well and have been drifting more and more in the direction dealing with human error / aiding human thinking by just raising the bar abit without trying to find completeness and focusing on acceptability. Fixing the stuff that should be easiest. So looking at the description of errors and and how to communicate them in a sensible way. A minimum consensus based safety focused approach with capsuled complexity seems to be the way to go.

A few perspectives you may or may not have heard of and find interesting in this context. In the spirit of capsuled complexity and accessibility with good podcasts / videos:

Example for the concept and power of capsuled complexity with the 5 level explanation series from WIRED https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raHM3k-uR0E

You already mentioned information pollution so you might be familiar with the whole military perspective, from operations in the information environment / cognitive warfare, Diss/Miss Information and missing context, psychographic advertisement, ODAA Loop and the research coming out of IBMs Watson by Juliane Gallinas with her Ted Talk about "(General)Patton in a Box" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOQkPNlTTBY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rg7uKsWlGs If things shift into a game theoretical perspective its also always worth while reminding people that even psychopaths like drinkable tap water. There is some win-win stuff.

(Air) Accident investigations and crew resource management for how to design processes dealing with human error. Mentour Pilots youtube channel or the series https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayday_(Canadian_TV_series). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhO-87wwLJs about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Air_Lines_Flight_401 for example

Taiwans gov0 (zero) is an approach of consensus finding in politics. Outer alignment is also relevant here. I generally find totalitarianism (corrupt dysfunctional systems) a useful frame of mind in terms of why consensus finding has giant benefits. Joost Meerloos "Rape of the mind" has a good description of how these systems become dysfunctional. Also https://sproutsschools.com/bonhoeffers-theory-of-stupidity/ Noble lies and the problems in how to deal with them are also noteworthy here.

Hostage negotiator are a in hindsight not so surprising great source for consensus finding mechanisms and mindset. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EguLJgkc54

Tim Urbans echo chambers vs idea spaces

You mentioned epistemology, ontology in computer science is a great counterexample for the dangers of aiming for completeness as well as Humes guillotine.

You might also like the stuff from Daniel Schmachtenberger on the sense making crisis. But i always feel always bad about recommending this since its hours and hours of videos. But from the types of information pollution to mementics to a description of the everything crisis we are in through the frame of finding a third attractor its quite valuable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqaotiGWjQ

Tristan Harris might also be relevant for how technology (like social media and AI) is causing problems due to humans interacting with it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ

Another poster (tim333) made a great summary of the concept behind GLD (your first link) a few posts up. Those backed assets are otherwise owned and loaned against. IShares is the other one with a similar concept. You can read up on this in the context of Basel 3's net stable funding ratio and the exemption LBMA (the biggest backer of COMEX) achieved.

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2021/06/basel-iii-an...

Or directly from the LBMA:

https://cdn.lbma.org.uk/downloads/Pages/NSFR-PRA-Letter-fina... https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/pra-clearing-banks-may-now-...

This is not to say that all ETFs work this way. I believe Xetra is one example of being fully physically backed. But this naturally increases running cost due to storage. Last i checked i believe you pay in the rough region of 0.1% a year in storage cost at the reputable physical gold bullion storage sites as a large customers (tons / room). That sums up. This also explains why physical copper is not something you can easily invest in.

But again, this kind of misses the point, i would really appreciate a definition of paper differing from backed by derivatives. I think you might be onto something here, i ran into this argument a few times now so i believe i might be missing something.

I would also like to reiterate that i do not share the conclusion the initial post made about run away gold prices. I elaborated on that in the other posts.

Sorry for the late edits, had to double check the numbers.

While again i dont disagree with your conclusion, i believe your arguing here is flawed. The derivatives can and do move the price significantly. JPMorgan payed quite hefty fines for manipulating the precious metal markets (as well as treasuries) through spoofing¹. Thats now happening by dumping significant volumes of derivatives onto the market at times its especially thin. Which can be in the order of magnitude of yearly productions. Combining this with bots trading trends prices can be moved significantly.

But again, due to golds importance from the monetary perspective, significant price increases are not going to happen. It could be seen as currencies devaluing, thus lending out central bank gold reserved to achieve price stability is very much on the table. I believe it was Greenspan that talked about this in the past.

¹ https://www.reuters.com/article/jp-morgan-spoofing-penalty-i...

No, not at all.

I believe your error stems from looking at my comment regarding what implications it would have on your position. Those assumed implications are however erroneous.

I am telling you initial cause blame attribution is open ended and thus dangerous. Thats why it cant be used. Because there is some stuff that cant be justified. If you go down the path of Russia is to blame not because they did it, but because they started it, you are writing a blank check for anything that happens afterwards.

This statement says nothing about removing any blame from Russia, its just the statement that some stuff is unjustifiable. Which is why those lines of reasoning are not a good idea.

As i pointed out in another post, it also shifts the narrative from Russia blew up a dam to Ukraine would have been allowed to do that. Thats cognitive warfare, straight out of GRUs active measures. Which is also why my other post wasnt concern trolling. They are actively doing that and attention needs to be paid unless you want GRU dictating how you think about Ukraine.

Fuck off, idiot.

You seem to be a genuine account. It amazes me that you thought this to be a reasonable comment.

I looked at my comment again and its pretty clear that i was talking about the kind of reasoning, not the specific argument. Please think before you post.

Once you stop judging stuff on its own you can justify anything. Its why its not sensible to do that.

You are acting as a caricature right now. He made a sensible comment that it was off topic to the article, your insult is completely uncalled for.

I mention this because it paints a horrible picture about Ukraine supporters. Unless you are a Russian sock puppet aiming for that result, you really shouldnt be doing this.

Residential use isn't a lot, as the area is very sparsely populated,

Crimea and Cherson are both not small.

Sorry about the use of the word barren, this isnt my first language. I meant agriculture will be over. The satellite pictures of Crimea i saw a while back looked quite drastic, this wont be any different. And as the other poster pointed out correctly, this is fertile wheat area.

What kind of alternative crop did you have in mind? I havent heard of any feasible suggestions.

Which doesn't mean ETFs like GLD are not real. It just means that if I say I'll bet you the price goes up, we settle the bet at $100 for each dollar the price moves, that is independent of us actually owning any gold.

Whats your definition of real if it doesnt involve physical gold? An ISIN existing? Sorry if that sounds passive aggressive, i cant figure out how else to word it.

There seems to be another definition of paper gold i am missing? I always assumed it was clear we are talking about derivatives.

Now there’s a call not to rebuild it.

Pretty fucked up seeing as it supplies the area with residential water as well as irrigation. Without it much of the surrounding will be barren. You can see the difference on satellite pictures of Crimea from when Ukraine closed the channel after Russian takeover.

Article mentions it as well.

However, that decision is likely to be made. Tuboltsev tries to be realistic, noting that thousands of homes, businesses, and farms depended on the reservoir for their water supply, and there simply may not be other options.

edit: Thanks for the correction! Apparently barren isnt synonymous with infertile. I meant the later.

If i am not mistaken those gold ETFs are backed by derivatives. Please do share a differing definition for "paper".

I also didnt disagree with derivative overhang being normal. Not sure why you thought it necessary to repeat.

Do you believe otherwise?

I referenced the documentary "Kink" from 2013 above about the BDSM studio with the same name. They have a part about how you smack somebody that it sounds good but isnt painful. Its a skill to learn.

The whole perspective is counterproductive though. Pain can also be really pleasant if done right. Anyone who ever scratched an itch should understand that.

This is likely a good illustration why simplifications are utterly counterproductive. You cant go for some simple checklist of what to ban. While BDSM stuff looks rough the actual dangers in sex work are too rough and unprepared sex leading to something ripping. That can be really hard to identity on video and horrific for that person.

Which makes this so counterproductive. Signaling towards easy to visualize stuff means you have the exact opposite effect of the claimed intention. You dont go after known bad actors but people with spotless records that make sure to take care of the people they work with. Kink might waterboard you safely if you are into this sort of stuff but there wont be any surprise genuine attacks and pressuring by psychos with big dicks that sends you to the doctor like you will find it in some mainstream porn.

Unfortunately i dont see yours either. We have governments arguing against stronger encryption due to fears of going dark. Which means against having secure systems.

This is in addition to a lot of government agencies sitting on, and investing into the knowledge about vulnerabilities. Some of the more public ones getting fixed doesnt change the overall vulnerability of the system. There is a clear incentive mismatch. One cant pretend that those vulnerabilities are "safe" due to only spooks knowing of them. If you can find them, so can others. Especially if you are actively exploiting them.

I would argue that this shows both an unwillingness to accept improvements in security as well as actively degrading the current state. And this is before talking about governments actively adding vulnerabilities, which now even possible by law in some jurisdictions.

Edit: This should do

The ratio of iron-ore derivatives to physical trading volume was about 25 times, far lower than the 80-100 time for more mature commodities such as gold and copper, according to a study by Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/expect-chinas-fu...

Silver is quite a lot worse btw

Might be worth pointing out that this isnt surprising given the activity of speculators in the market. Without markets would get cornered for investment and industry would cease.

edit1: There is however also an incentive to keep individuals from investing into precious metals due to monetary considerations. Derivate induced volatility is one way to do that. https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1974LONDON16154_b.html

edit2: Also worth considering is that the large central bank holdings can and will be loaned out to maintain price stability if push comes to shove and gold were to rise drastically.