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celestialcheese

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My guess is that the telemetry data they can collect from interacting with claude code is the "secret sauce" behind a lot of the improvements we're seeing with coding models right now. Look at cursors Composer-2 release today. Clicking "accept" during plan mode, committing changes and pushing to a remote repo, etc. is a really strong reward signal.

Can't collect telemetry from applications you don't control.

It took tiktok just 5 years to go from ~no revenue to ~$12b annual in the US.

ChatGPT has roughly the same MAU as tiktok. I don't see why their ad business wouldn't meet or exceed what tiktok was able to do in less than 5 years.

Like, I've seen no sign of OpenAI building an ads team or product

You just haven't been paying attention. They hired Fidji Simo to lead applications in may, she led monetization/ads at facebook for a decade and have been staffing up aggressively with pros.

Reading between the lines in interview with wired last week[0], they're about to go all in with ads across the board, not just the free version. Start with free, expand everywhere. The monetization opportunities in chatgpt are going to make what google offers with adwords look quaint, and every CMO/performance marketer is going to go in head first. 2% is tiny IMO.

[0] https://archive.is/n4DxY

Google should have to make this disclosure as well. I'd guess >50% of their AdX revenue is from click-trick, fake button, scam ads. Across the board I'd expect Google's ad revenue to be at least 10% from scams, if not more.

Source: a decade of running a website monetized with adx and having to hire people to manually monitor and block scam display ads multiple times a day.

It's because when you live rural like this, wood stoves are common, and wood is free.

I live in the northwest, so I can't speak to upstate NY, but downed trees on state and federal land near roads is free to take. Every day there's people posting rounds of wood for free to take.

It's hard work, but it's good exercise and rewarding.

There's some upfront investment: $200 chainsaw, an old maul, and an old pickup truck, but those amortized over a decade is practically speaking $0 heat.

Is this a real thing for small companies?

I have no experience with this, and the only time I've gone and tried to get quoted for things like cyber liability, etc, the costs are incredible relative to the value of the business and revenues.

whisper-1 has this with the verbose_json output. Has word level and sentence level, works fairly well.

Looks like the new models don't have this feature yet.

Mistral Small 3 1 year ago

Classification, tagging tasks. Way easier than older ML techniques and very fast to implement.

For farmers today, the choice is more stark.

I can only speak to small and medium farms, but if we're talking large horsepower cultivators / row farming, It's really a choice between keep my old pre-emissions diesel/buy a pre-2006 used tractor from auctions/marketplace for 50k, or double down and lease a 250k-400k new mid-size tractor.

You make it seem like many farmers have choices, but old "dirty" tractors are the only financial options for many without signing up for indentured servitude to JD/Case/etc

From my experience, TCO on most apple products ends up being roughly the same when you factor in resale value.

You'll be able to sell your M4 mac mini in 5 years for $150 for an instant-cash offer from backmarket or any other reseller, while you'd be lucky to get $30 for the equivalent Beelink or BOSGAME after 6 months on ebay.

Do you feel like the market is going to cool massively in the next few years? I don't - IMO the weight of held low interest rates is going to keep inventory low for a long time.

We've got to live somewhere, and the new house has a mortgage at 7.65%. The principle decrease + cashflow from holding the existing property barely offsets the interest cost on new property.

So I guess the way to look at it is a zero-cost, but potentially highly stressful, bet on the property market appreciating?

I've got this situation now, and interested to hear your take.

Primary home with ~400k in equity, 400k loan @ 2.7%. Moving and bought a new house, and deciding what to do.

Market is hot, equity up 300k in 3 years.

I always believed in this "don't sell property, you can always generate income" but now that i'm facing this decision, I don't see how to justify keeping it.

Cashflow (factoring in expenses/maintenance/vacancy) from renting would be ~$400/mo. If you include principal paydown, then it'd be ~$2000/mo.

Selling the property, and taking the equity seems like the best option. Either a) rolling it into the new house or b) investing it in nearly risk free muni's. Both of those would net me more than keeping the property with a significantly better risk adjusted return.

If you live in a place with wild property appreciation over the last 4 years (most of the country), then I don't really see how it makes sense to keep a property. What am I missing?

Really? So in your world, a writer's mistake is abuse, in the same way legal professionals using the copyright system to profit off of a small publishing businesses is?

It's like arguing that punitive fines for minor infractions, like jaywalking or speeding, would be justified because "you broke the law".

The outrageous maximum penalties ($100k/infringement), the nuance of fair use and copyright law, and the resulting cost of defending yourself means that the only solution if you don't have excellent in-house counsel is you have to settle for what they ask. It's legal extortion.

This is so common, and has been for a number of years.

As an owner of a website with a lot of content published over the years, a copyright claim pops up with "settlement" offers between $200-$1k to make it go away.

50% of the time it's an outright scam like this.

45% it's legit, we pay the settlement, and a writer gets a reminder about citing images and copyright.

5% is the worst, where a photographer will have a open license like CC BY-NC, then a law firm will contact photographers with images licensed like that, and partner with them to send demand letters to businesses improperly using the open license and do the settlement shakedown. While technically in violation because we're a business with ad revenue, it's nefarious because it's exploiting nuances of open licenses and writers on schedule missing the NC part of the license review. We get it right most of the time, but mistakes happen. Feels dirty to leverage CC to make money doing copyright shakedowns.