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bzhang255

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Disclaimer: I have not read any literature on the economics of prediction markets, and I know nothing about the mechanics of Polymarket/Kalshi.

I would imagine that in theory, everyone thinks they have the best information at the time, something like:

House: "Odds that X happens? We'll put $1 on both sides to get it started. 50/50."

Someone comes along: "Oh dang, I'm definitely more than 50% confident that X is happening. Let me put $1 in." Now it's 67:33.

Someone else comes along: "Oh I'm more than 67% confident X is happening, let me put $1 in." Now it's 75:25.

And of course, you get people going: "I'm more than 25% confident that X is _not_ happening, let me put $1 in!" And now it's 60:40.

The murky part, I would imagine, comes when the odds and the payout actually act as something that influences the outcome, but in perfect theory-land, if everything goes as planned, this should move the odds to the most informationally-accurate measurement, which should, in theory, benefit observers by making this measurement public.

I think it's shallow and not because it's short. To me, it just sounds very typical: "I joined Google back when it was fun. Now it's more bureaucratic and less fun. But I made a ton of money on the stock." I think there have been countless blog posts from Ex-Googlers like this. It's fairly shallow.

And it is worth noting that a lot of the bullet point lists do start with "I made a ton of money" in as many words, which is also just not very interesting to most folks, though it is certainly very relevant and important to the writer.

Acknowledgements have a quality which is hard to describe.

They feel like they’ve been drafted a hundred times in the head of the author, but then put down on the page in a hurry, the clock ticking on their deadline.

Like, they’re trying to tell you the most important thing they’ve ever said - at the very moment the ship is pulling away from the dock.

A lovely read. I also have an affinity for dissertation acknowledgements and I think this entire piece really captures why they feel so special :)

I would agree with suggesting Dalloway before To The Lighthouse, because I think Dalloway is generally more concrete and attainable. To The Lighthouse takes Woolf's characteristic stream-of-consciousness interiority a step further and can also be very roundabout in its approach to the "thing" that a character is actually thinking about or trying to say. It's also a bit more experimental in its form, and can be overall a bit harder to "grasp". I think someone new to Woolf would benefit from having Dalloway as an opportunity not only to get used to her style of writing, which will help smooth the learning curve if you decide to read To The Lighthouse, but also to form a judgement of her in a more "typical" setting so that you can decide if she merits your working through her more experimental works. Cheers.

Anxiety is a somewhat overloaded word, in my opinion, because while you're right that everyone experiences "anxiety", there's a distinction between that and an anxiety disorder, which is recognized as a very real mental health issue. This is also why I suspect that letting people self-report will result in overestimating people suffering from anxiety disorders as a mental health issue, vs experiencing regular anxiety.

No one buys books 2 years ago

I read that line as sardonic. The author is pointing out how the economics of publishing are contrary to what we would expect, or perhaps would like.

From the abstract: "Exposure therapy showed... a negligible effect relative to other trauma-focused treatments or medication."

Anyway, from my understanding, medications for treating PTSD are less effective than medications for other mental disorders. I'm waiting for the day that PTSD medications catch up, because therapeutic treatment for PTSD is currently centered on reducing discomfort, without much hope for remission, which feels like a dim outlook.

I think there were a few things going on here that make me more sympathetic to the driver:

1. The picture in the article makes it seem like the bridge is located in a very residential spot where you might have your guard down.

2. The article mentions it was dark and raining when the accident occurred.

3. The driver was in an unfamiliar neighborhood, and in those times, I think many, many people have gotten very used to relying on Google/Apple Maps to "get you home without directing you into a creek".

I think his direct influence on English speakers has definitely dropped off a lot. I first learned about him from an essay Virginia Woolf wrote on him.

They should lay off 100% and go out of business.

Suggesting that 9000 people lose their jobs feels like a needlessly hateful way to express a dissatisfaction with a company's products.

Sure - but I think that's the least important part of my comment. The preview is basically just an intro to Scheme. I would rather be able to see how well the book covers interesting ideas about deep learning. While the jury is still out, my personal skepticism is that this is a really beautiful passion project that looks great on bookshelves, but that any serious learner would be better served dedicating their time to working through the existing, more traditional, and very high-quality resources available online.

The initial preview is a little disappointing because it feels like it does a great job displaying the pedagogical style but not enough to demonstrate the pedagogical value (i.e. whether this resource actually does a good job teaching a complex topic).

Given the wealth of information and the problem of appraising it all, I don't think it helps this book that it costs $55 and requires the reader to learn an esoteric language (for the field), when there are so many educational books and lecture series by experts in the field that you can find freely available online.